Your Money October 14, 2004February 27, 2017 DECISION 2004 In terms of your prosperity, it’s pretty simple: If you make less than $200,000, vote for Kerry. If you make more than $200,000, consider Bush. But bear in mind that there is more to your long-term prosperity than the tax rate on your income above $200,000. Kerry has the backing of Robert Rubin and Warren Buffett, perhaps the two best respected business leaders in the world. Also, the job and stock markets generally do better with a Democrat in the White House. IT’S NOT JUST RUBIN AND BUFFETT . . . I’ve previously linked to the recollection of one of the President’s old Harvard Business School professors. It turns out he is not the only professor willing go public with concerns. Here is an open letter signed by scores of them – 56 from Harvard Business School alone. October 4, 2004 Dear Mr. President: As professors of economics and business, we are concerned that U.S. economic policy has taken a dangerous turn under your stewardship. Nearly every major economic indicator has deteriorated since you took office in January 2001. Real GDP growth during your term is the lowest of any presidential term in recent memory. Total non-farm employment has contracted and the unemployment rate has increased. Bankruptcies are up sharply, as is our dependence on foreign capital to finance an exploding current account deficit. All three major stock indexes are lower now than at the time of your inauguration. The percentage of Americans in poverty has increased, real median income has declined, and income inequality has grown. The data make clear that your policy of slashing taxes – primarily for those at the upper reaches of the income distribution – has not worked. The fiscal reversal that has taken place under your leadership is so extreme that it would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. The federal budget surplus of over $200 billion that we enjoyed in the year 2000 has disappeared, and we are now facing a massive annual deficit of over $400 billion. In fact, if transfers from the Social Security trust fund are excluded, the federal deficit is even worse – well in excess of a half a trillion dollars this year alone. Although some members of your administration have suggested that the mountain of new debt accumulated on your watch is mainly the consequence of 9-11 and the war on terror, budget experts know that this is simply false. Your economic policies have played a significant role in driving this fiscal collapse. And the economic proposals you have suggested for a potential second term – from diverting Social Security contributions into private accounts to making the recent tax cuts permanent – only promise to exacerbate the crisis by further narrowing the federal revenue base. These sorts of deficits crowd out private investment and are politically addictive. They also place a heavy burden on monetary policy – and create additional pressure for higher interest rates – by stoking inflationary expectations. If your economic advisers are telling you that these deficits can be defeated through further reductions in tax rates, then you need new advisers. More robust economic growth could certainly help, but nearly every one of your administration’s economic forecasts – both before and after 9-11 – has proved overly optimistic. Expenditure cuts could be part of the answer, but your record so far has been one of increasing expenditures, not reducing them. What is called for, we believe, is a dramatic reorientation of fiscal policy, including substantial reversals of your tax policy. Running a budget deficit in response to a short bout of recession is one thing. But running large structural deficits over a long period is something else entirely. We therefore urge you to consider the fiscal realities we now face and the substantial burden they are placing on our economy. We also urge you to consider the distributional consequences of your policies. Under your administration, the income gap between the most affluent Americans and everyone else has widened. Although the latest data reveal that real household incomes have dropped across the board since you took office, low and middle income households have experienced steeper declines than upper income households. To be sure, the general phenomenon of mounting inequality preceded your administration, but it has continued (and, by some accounts, intensified) over the past three and a half years. Some degree of inequality is inherent in any free market economy, creating positive incentives for economic and technological advancement. But when inequality becomes extreme, it can be socially corrosive and economically dysfunctional. Problems of this sort are visible throughout much of the developing world. At the moment, the most commonly accepted measure of inequality – the so-called Gini coefficient – is far higher in the United States than in any other developed country and is continuing to move upward. We don’t know where the breakpoint is for the U.S., but we would rather not find out. With all due respect, we believe your tax policy has exacerbated the problem of inequality in the United States, which has worrisome implications for the economy as a whole. We very much hope you will take this threat to our nation into account as you consider new fiscal approaches to address the nation’s most pressing economic problems. Sensible and farsighted economic management requires true discipline, compassion, and courage – not just slogans. Given the tenuous state of the American economy, we believe that the time for an honest assessment of the problem and for genuine corrective action is now. Ignoring the fiscal crisis that has taken hold during your presidency may seem politically appealing in the short run, but we fear it could ultimately prove disastrous. From a policy standpoint, the clear message is that more of the same won’t work. The warning signs are already visible, and it is incumbent upon all of us to pay attention. Respectfully submitted, Francis Aguilar Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Ramon J. Aldag Glen A. Skillrud Family Chair in Business School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison Teresa M. Amabile Edsel Bryant Ford Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Kenneth R. Andrews David K. Donald Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School James E. Austin Eliot I. Snider and Family Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Joseph L. Badaracco John Shad Professor of Business Ethics Harvard Business School Lotte Bailyn T. Wilson (1953) Professor of Management MIT Sloan School of Management George P. Baker Herman C. Krannert Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Louis B. Barnes John D. Black Professor, Emeritus Harvard Business School James N. Baron Walter Kenneth Kilpatrick Professor of Organizational Behavior and Human Resources Graduate School of Business, Stanford University Jean M. Bartunek Robert A. and Evelyn J. Ferris Chair, Professor of Organization Studies Carroll School of Management, Boston College Yehuda Bassock Professor Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California Thomas A. Bausch Professor College of Business Administration, Marquette University Max H. Bazerman Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Cynthia Beath Professor Emeritus McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin Michael Beer Cahners-Rabb Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Jack N. Behrman Luther Hodges Distinguished Professor, Emeritus Kenan Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina Norman A. Berg MBA Class of 1958 Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Barbara Bird Associate Professor of Management Kogod School of Business, American University John E. Bishop Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Robert B. Bostrom L. Edmund Rast Professor of Business Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Joseph L. Bower Donald K. David Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Stephen P. Bradley William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Arthur P. Brief Lawrence Martin Professor of Business Freeman School of Business, Tulane University Philip Bromiley Curtis L. Carlson Chair in Strategic Management Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota Alfred D. Chandler Isidor Straus Professor of Business History, Emeritus Harvard Business School Chao C. Chen Professor Rutgers Business School, Rutgers University Charles J. Corbett Associate Professor of Operations Management and Environmental Management UCLA Anderson School of Management Thomas G. Cummings Professor Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California Michael Cusumano Sloan Management Review Distinguished Professor MIT Sloan School of Management Fariborz Damanpour Professor Rutgers Business School Jose de la Torre Dean, Chapman Graduate School of Business Florida International University John A. Deighton Harold M. Brierley Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Rohit Deshpande Sebastian S. Kresge Professor of Marketing Harvard Business School Nancy DiTomaso Professor Rutgers Business School–Newark and New Brunswick Jane E. Dutton Professor University of Michigan Business School Amy C. Edmondson Professor Harvard Business School Benjamin C. Esty Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Ronald F. Fariña Associate Professor Daniels College of Business, University of Denver Ann E. Feyerherm Associate Professor of Organization and Management Graziadio School of Business and Management, Pepperdine University James A. Fitzsimmons William H. Seay Centennial Professor of Business McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin James W. Fredrickson Tom E. Nelson, Jr. Regents Professor of Business McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin Sherwood C. Frey, Jr. Ethyl Corporation Professor of Business Administration Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Cynthia V. Fukami Professor Daniels College of Business, University of Denver Pankaj Ghemawat Jaime and Josefina Chua Tiampo Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Stephen M. Gilbert Associate Professor McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin James R. Glenn, Jr. Professor of Management College of Business, San Francisco State University Leslie E. Grayson Isidore Horween Research Professor, Emeritus Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Jerry R. Green Daniel A. Wells Professor of Political Economy, John Leverett Professor in the University Harvard Business School Leonard Greenhalgh Professor of Management Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth Douglas T. Hall Professor of Organizational Behavior Boston University School of Management Donald C. Hambrick Smeal Chaired Professor of Management Smeal College of Business Administration, The Pennsylvania State University Rebecca M. Henderson Eastman Kodak LFM Professor MIT Sloan School of Management Linda A. Hill Wallace Brett Donham Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Raymond Hogler Professor of Management College of Business, Colorado State University Yasheng Huang Associate Professor of International Management MIT Sloan School of Management Mariann Jelinek The Richard C. Kraemer Professor of Business Strategy School of Business, College of William & Mary David B. Jemison Foster Parker Centennial Professor of Management and Finance McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin John M. Jermier Exide Professor of Sustainable Enterprise Research College of Business, University of South Florida Shulamit Kahn Associate Professor Boston University School of Management Kate M. Kaiser Associate Professor College of Business, Marquette University Rosabeth M. Kanter Ernest L. Arbuckle Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Steven O. Kimbrough Professor The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Stephen J. Kobrin Wurster Professor of Multinational Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Thomas A. Kochan George Maverick Bunker Professor of Work and Employment Relations MIT Sloan School of Management Nancy F. Koehn James E. Robison Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Howard Kunreuther Cecilia Yen Koo Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Rajiv Lal Stanley Roth, Sr. Professor of Retailing Harvard Business School Theresa Lant Associate Professor of Management Stern School of Business, New York University Paul R. Lawrence Wallace Brett Donham Professor of Organizational Behavior, Emeritus Harvard Business School Carrie R. Leana Professor of Business Administration and of Public and International Affairs Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh Dorothy A. Leonard William J. Abernathy Professor of Business Administration, Emerita Harvard Business School Herman B. Leonard Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Donald R. Lessard Epoch Foundation Professor of International Management MIT Sloan School of Management Daniel A. Levinthal Julian Aresty Professor of Management and Economics The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania David Levy Professor of Management Department of Management, University of Massachusetts, Boston E. Allan Lind Thomas A. Finch Professor of Business Administration Fuqua School of Business, Duke University Richard M. Locke Alvin J. Siteman Professor of Entrepreneurship and Political Science MIT Sloan School of Management George C. Lodge Jaime and Josefina Chua Tiampo Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Jay W. Lorsch Louis E. Kirstein Professor of Human Relations Harvard Business School Michael Magazine Professor College of Business, University of Cincinnati Michael R. Manning Professor of Management College of Business Administration & Economics, New Mexico State University Theodore R. Marmor Professor of Public Policy and Management Yale School of Management and Political Science Department Joanne Martin Merrill Professor of Organizational Behavior Graduate School of Business, Stanford University Thomas K. McCraw Isidor Straus Professor of Business History Harvard Business School Anita M. McGahan Professor and Everett W. Lord Distinguished Faculty Scholar Boston University School of Management Kathleen L. McGinn Cahners-Rabb Professor of Social and Organizational Psychology Harvard Business School Robert P. McGowan Professor Daniels College of Business, University of Denver Robert C. Merton John and Natty McArthur University Professor Harvard Business School David M. Messick Kaplan Professor of Ethics and Decision in Management Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Alan D. Meyer Charles H. Lundquist Professor of Entrepreneurial Management Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon Marshall W. Meyer Richard A. Sapp Professor, Professor of Management and Sociology The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Richard F. Meyer Thomas D. Casserly, Jr. Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Ian Mitroff Harold Quinton Distinguished Professor of Business Policy Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California Cynthia A. Montgomery Timken Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School David A. Moss John G. McLean Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School J. Keith Murnighan Harold H. Hines, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Risk Management Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Steven Nahmias Professor Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University Barry Nalebuff Milton Steinbach Professor of Management Yale School of Management Das Narayandas Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Paul Newman Clark W. Thompson, Jr. Chair in Accounting McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin William Ocasio John L. and Helen Kellogg Distinguished Professor of Management and Organizations Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Paul Osterman NTU Professor of Human Resources and Management MIT Sloan School of Management Lynn S. Paine John G. McLean Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Johannes M. Pennings Marie and Joseph Melone Professor The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Margaret Peteraf Associate Professor of Business Administration Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth Joel Podolny Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management Harvard Business School John W. Pratt William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Drazen Prelec Professor of Management Science MIT Sloan School of Management Keith G. Provan Eller Professor of Public Administration & Policy Eller College of Management, University of Arizona Ronald E. Purser Professor of Management College of Business, San Francisco State University Roy Radner L. N. Stern School Professor of Business Stern School of Business, New York University Daniel Raff Associate Professor of Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Howard Raiffa Frank Plumpton Ramsey Professor of Managerial Economics, Emeritus Harvard Business School V. Kasturi Rangan Malcolm P. McNair Professor of Marketing Harvard Business School Stefan H. Robock R. D. Calkins Professor of International Business, Emeritus Graduate School of Business, Columbia University David Rogers Professor Emeritus of Management and Sociology Stern School of Business, New York University John W. Rosenblum Dean Emeritus Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Lori Rosenkopf Associate Professor of Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Walter J. Salmon Stanley Roth, Sr. Professor of Retailing, Emeritus Harvard Business School Carol Saunders Professor of MIS College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Melissa A. Schilling Associate Professor Stern School of Business, New York University Arthur Schleifer, Jr. James J. Hill Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Claudia B. Schoonhoven Professor of Organization and Strategy Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine Bruce R. Scott Paul W. Cherington Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Michael S. Scott-Morton Jay W. Forester Professor of Management, Emeritus MIT Sloan School of Management James K. Sebenius Gordon Donaldson Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Benson P. Shapiro Malcolm P. McNair Professor of Marketing, Emeritus Harvard Business School Roy D. Shapiro Philip Caldwell Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School William F. Sharpe STANCO 25 Professor of Finance, Emeritus Stanford Business School William W. Sihler Ronald E. Trzcinski Professor of Business Administration Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Alvin J. Silk Lincoln Filene Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus Harvard Business School Harbir Singh Edward H. Bowman Professor of Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Jitendra V. Singh Saul P. Steinberg Professor of Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Sim B. Sitkin Associate Professor Fuqua School of Business, Duke University William B. Snavely Professor of Management Richard T. Farmer School of Business, Miami University Olav Sorenson Associate Professor UCLA Anderson School of Management Debora L. Spar Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Bert A. Spector Associate Professor of Human Resources Management College of Business Administration, Northeastern University Richard Staelin Edward and Rose Donnell Professor of Business Administration Fuqua School of Business, Duke University William H. Starbuck ITT Professor of Creative Management Stern School of Business, New York University John Sterman Jay W. Forester Professor of Management MIT Sloan School of Management Richard S. Tedlow MBA Class of 1949 Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Ramkrishnan V. Tenkasi Professor of Organization Change College of Business and Technology, Benedictine University David A. Thomas Naylor Fitzhugh Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School William R. Torbert Professor Carroll School of Management, Boston College Anne S. Tsui Motorola Professor W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University Michael L. Tushman Paul R. Lawrence MBA Class of 1942 Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Karl T. Ulrich Professor of Operations and Information Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Garrett J. van Ryzin Paul M. Montrone Professor of Private Enterprise Graduate School of Business, Columbia University N. Venkat Venkatraman David J. McGrath Jr. Professor of Management Boston University School of Management Richard H. K. Vietor Senator John Heinz Professor of Environmental Management Harvard Business School Mary Ann Von Glinow Research Professor College of Business Administration, Florida International University Sandra Waddock Professor of Management Carroll School of Management, Boston College Melanie Wallendorf Eller Professor of Marketing Eller College of Management, University of Arizona Richard T. Watson J. Rex Fuqua Distinguished Chair for Internet Strategy Terry College of Business, University of Georgia David Weil Associate Professor of Economics Boston University School of Management Louis T. Wells Herbert F. Johnson Professor of International Management Harvard Business School Patricia H. Werhane Ruffin Professor of Business Ethics Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia Birger Wernerfelt J. C. Penney Professor of Management Science MIT Sloan School of Management D. Eleanor Westney Society of Sloan Fellows Chair in Management MIT Sloan School of Management James D. Westphal Ed and Molly Smith Chair in Business Administration McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin Robert B. Wilson Adams Distinguished Professor of Management, Emeritus Stanford Business School Sid Winter Deloitte and Touche Professor of Management The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania JoAnne Yates Sloan Distinguished Professor of Management MIT Sloan School of Management David B. Yoffie Max and Doris Starr Professor of International Business Administration Harvard Business School Abraham Zaleznik Konosuke Matsushita Professor of Leadership, Emeritus Harvard Business School Ray Zammuto Professor of Management Business School, University of Colorado at Denver Paul H. Zipkin The T. Austin Finch, Sr. Professor of Business Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.