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Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

Total Power, Harvard, DOGE, Puts, And A Dead Outlaw

April 15, 2025April 15, 2025

What Hannah Arendt saw in Hitler’s Germany, we can see in Trump’s America

As a descendant of German immigrants, from college on I devoured histories of the rise of fascism to grasp how the cultured and educated democracy of my great grandparents could succumb so tragically. I never got it; I had an American’s complacency that made Germans’ complicity incomprehensible. Decades later, I do understand. Because it is happening here.

Comparing Hitler and the Nazis to Donald Trump and his MAGA movement is of course fraught. Trump’s world war is a bloodless one over trade; his lawless roundups of migrants and domestic enemies aim to deport, not exterminate.

And yet the parallels are undeniable. . . .

Just as this country’s Republican Old Guard, Germany’s conservative establishment initially thought it could control Hitler, so politicians and business leaders didn’t ostracize or condemn him. But he played them, just as Trump has mastered Republican “leaders,” parlaying his popular appeal and political ruthlessness into total power.


Read in full and see if you agree.


One thing for sure: He likes violence.


Trump and Some of His Cabinet Members Attend U.F.C. Fight in Miami

. . . In the second fight, Bryce Mitchell, a vocal supporter of Mr. Trump for many years, was beaten by Jean Silva, a Brazilian.

Earlier this year, Mr. Mitchell faced a firestorm of criticism after he praised Adolf Hitler as a “good guy” who “fought for his country.”


(In fairness to Mitchell:  some believe “Hitler did some good things.“)



DOGE GETS IT WRONG


Elon Musk now says his group will produce only 15 percent of the savings it promised. But even that estimate is inflated with errors and guesswork.


And yet they’ve managed to wreak havoc on everything from Social Security and the V.A. to USAID and the IRS (whose slashed enforcement budget will increase the deficit).

His trillion-dollar goal was preposterous from the start.



HARVARD GETS IT RIGHT

In defiance President Trump, President Garber concludes his letter:


We proceed now, as always, with the conviction that the fearless and unfettered pursuit of truth liberates humanity—and with faith in the enduring promise that America’s colleges and universities hold for our country and our world.


Worth reading in full . . . and, if you have time, watching Lawrence O’Donnell (from 2:45 to 15:45) remind us what Harvard has done for the world these past 389 years.



PUTS

A savvy Wall Street currency trader thinks puts are too expensive now and that “we’ll get a rally when he removes or vastly reduces the China tariffs which will happen sooner rather than later.”  So maybe wait for that rally and buy them when they’re cheaper.  And yet he tells me not to sell my December 2026 DIA 430 puts or my June 2025 SPY puts.  (One of you asked which i had bought.  Now you know.)  He shares my view that there’s a great deal of risk in the market.  As you know if you watched yesterday’s Ray Dalio clip.



DEAD OUTLAW

The thing is: it’s based on a true story.  Try not to know any more than that when you go see it.  (Well, know that it’s a musical and that there’s no intermission.)  I was in the back row of the balcony at last night’s first preview — $48! — and I loved it.



DON’T FORGET TO FILE YOUR 2024 TAXES TODAY OR AN EXTENSION . . . AND YOUR FIRST QUARTERLY ESTIMATED 2025 PAYMENT, IF DUE

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