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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

The Court, The Election, and Plan B

July 2, 2024July 3, 2024

THE COURT

Rachel on the Court’s immunity ruling (90 seconds).


The rule of law in this country means that the law is not used as the instrument of the ruler; the rule of law is supposed to constrain the ruler.  And the Supreme Court just undid that.  And the only way out of this is to put someone in the White House from here on out who will not abuse the absolutely tyrannical power they have just been granted.


So how do we do that?



THE ELECTION

Most of us agree there’s only one valid consideration: we should do whatever gives us the best chance of winning.

And most of us agree Joe Biden and his team have done a terrific job: restoring decency and dignity to the Office, competence and honesty to the Administration; reversing the decades-long decay of our infrastructure; bringing inflation and unemployment down, manufacturing jobs home; restoring our alliances, standing up to Russian aggression, appointing progressive judges, confronting climate change . . . and more.

On Joe ‘s watch, wages are now rising faster than inflation, the stock market’s at record highs, we’re the largest energy-producing country in the world, and crime rates have fallen.

Not bad for an old guy.

So . . . stick with Joe?  open convention?  something else?

Conversations are in overdrive.

Tom Friedman’s column yesterday likely made sense to a lot of people.

You should probably stop here and read it.


I’ve heard from really smart people on all sides.

That the Biden team has not seized on “the antihistamine theory” suggests Thursday’s debate performance was not the result of a cold pill after all — and the President is too honest to pretend that it was.  Which leaves us with the Gish gallop theory — that someone as bright as you or me can be flummoxed by a tsunami of outlandish claims.  (See: Donald Trump’s Shocking Box Score: 602 Lies in Just 40 Minutes.)

For the President to bounce back, most people believe he needs to do extended interviews like this one with Stephanopoulos scheduled for Friday.

He can come right out and say —


Look. I’m an old guy with a lifelong stutter who has trouble confronting a fire hose of lies with 50 million people watching me.

But my job isn’t to be a debater, it’s to assemble and lead a terrific team to make life better for the American people.

So I’m here to answer anything you want to know about inflation and immigration and health care and all the other things that matter to folks.

But first let me just say: only 4 of the top 44 people in his administration have endorsed him. The people he appointed who worked most closely with him won’t endorse him.  Some have written books begging folks not to support him. Think about that!  What does that tell you?  I may be boring and old, but I’m effective.  I know right from wrong. I tell the truth.  And when I misspeak, as I often have all my life, I correct my mistakes. I don’t insist on “alternate facts.”

Our infrastructure is being revitalized and our country is getting stronger every day. And if Trump hadn’t killed the bipartisan border bill, we would have ended that crisis by now. TRUMP killed it because he needs the crisis to continue so has an issue to run on.  He needs it to stay out of jail.  The immigration crisis is HIS crisis now.  It’s Trump who has kept it from being fixed, for his own selfish reasons.

Okay!  Thanks for letting me get all that off my chest.  Now fire away, George.


And then, in a calm, relaxed way, they would discuss each issue in depth.

If he can’t shine in that format brightly enough t0 shake the images from Thursday, we go to plan B, as Friedman argues we must.



WHAT IS PLAN B?

Part #1 would be simply for Joe to take the win.  Pass the baton; go down in history as having been one of our greatest presidents ever; avoid the possibility of going down in history as the guy who lost democracy.

And then?

Some dream of Michelle Obama magically grabbing the baton — one poll has her beating Trump by 11 points.

More likely combos might be Kamala Harris & Chris Coons or Gretchen Whitmer & Raphael Warnock.

Some people would like to see the President come out into the Rose Garden flanked by everyone from the Clintons and Obamas to Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, Kerry Kennedy, Bernie Sanders, James Clyburn, Al Gore, Joe Manchin, A.O.C. . . . you get the idea . . . and basically “anoint” whatever team he and his advisors believe would give us the best chance of November 5.

Another approach comes from a friend who writes:


I would much prefer an open 6-week process with at least 3 candidates (say, Harris, Whitmer, Newsom) with Joe not choosing but pre-endorsing whichever wins.

They’d do maybe 3 debates (that respect Reagan’s 11th commandment of not criticizing a member of their own party), driving Trump out of the news, showing off how good they are, driving resurgent-optimism/enthusiasm money to the DNC and culminating in a real, “woo-hoo for democracy” convention that has some actual excitement to it and huge viewership and culminates in the formerly-Biden delegates actually choosing whoever the hell they choose, and then busting out into Sept-Oct to beat the pants off Trump, with a fresh, virile (of either gender) media- and convention-legitimized winner of a candidate who makes Trump look like the pasty old gasbag he is, and Joe active in the campaign.

That — disorder, excitement, suspense, validation — to me is a way better scenario than some backroom deal in which Joe bows out for a pre-determined successor. BTW, it would also leave Kennedy with only otherwise-Trump voters.

Each debate (maybe each stump speech) begins “All three of us are a vastly better, positive choice than Trump, and I will enthusiastically support and campaign for either of my friendly rivals if I am not the nominee. That’s why I’m not going to say a negative word about either of them, just try to tell and show you about me and how I would fulfill the office if elected, and hope that gains the delegates’ support.” It’s actually a FUN 6 weeks!!


Whatever happens, it seems now to be happening fast.  And I go back to what I posted right after the shock of the debate:


All I’m going to say for now is that Joe Biden has been a great, great president — his record is terrific; his decency, exemplary — and will do, I believe, whatever gives us the best chance of defeating Trump.


 

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