Don’t Miss Today’s Last Item: What A Soft Coup Looks Like August 8, 2025 But first . . . NOOM Some numbers make sense. Eat fewer calories than you burn and you’ll lose weight. > Did you know that two 5-ounce cans of BumbleBee solid white albacore tuna have only 260 calories but 58 grams of protein? And cost less than $3 bought by the case? And taste great eaten with pickles? Having begun with Noom weighing 159 pounds seven weeks ago, I’m 150.8 today. At this rate, some of you may be pleased to know (hi, Carl!), I will have disappeared entirely by January 27, 2028. OPRT Other numbers make no sense — at least not to me. > Based on Wednesday’s call projecting earnings of “$1.20 to $1.40” per share for the year, OPRT — then $6.30 and thus selling at five times projected earnings — should have risen nicely. Instead, it’s fallen. I’d be fascinated to know who’s selling and why. They may turn out to be right; yet from all I can tell there’s an equally good chance the company not only earns $1.20 this year but grows to double or triple that over the next few years. For better or worse, I bought more. VOTE 16 Long-time readers may recall my rant . . . Why States Should Lower the Voting Age. Now comes Tuesday’s New York Times: They Are 16 and 17 Years Old, and They Want to Vote. Like, Now. I think we should let them. REVOLT! The violence at the end of this powerful 90-second clip is unacceptable — and not, I’m pretty sure, what the creators are actually advocating. But it sure does capture the feeling of rage that is likely to grow as rural hospitals close; young women can’t get abortions; tariff taxes take hold; poor kids and the elderly lose food stamps; deportations shatter neighbors’ lives; billionaires buy larger yachts — the whole deal. Watch. AND NOW . . . A 3-part alarm every American who prefers democracy to dictatorship — not all do! — should read. “Technical State of Civil War” by Robert Hawks Part One: Edge of Something Worse It begins: Let’s dispense with the pleasantries. We are at war. Not a shooting war. Not yet. But something worse in its own quiet, choking way: a technical state of civil war. The kind of war that makes cowards of rules and turns procedure into shrapnel. Glass shrapnel, completely in violation of the Geneva conventions. And in Texas, Greg Abbott is lighting the fuse. . . . Half the country still thinks the Democrats are overreacting. That we’re all just melting down because we lost a few court cases or that we’re mad we can’t get pronouns printed on our napkins. [But no], we’re reacting because we’re watching the United States be turned inside out by men who believe they should rule forever, or not at all. . . . This is not just about maps. Not just about Abbott. Not just about Trump. This is about a Republican Party that has now declared publicly, and repeatedly, that if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, they will refuse to certify the election. Full stop. That’s not politics. That’s war‑by‑other‑means. . . . There’s so much more to Part I, if you have time to read it. Part 2: Anatomy of a Split Nation It begins: The plan is as clear as it is insane: gerrymander the House, win the majority through rigged maps, then throw the 2028 election to the chamber when no consensus can be reached. Install a Republican president—possibly Trump, God help us—by congressional fiat, regardless of the Electoral College or the popular vote. In other words: end elections. Cement minority rule. Burn the scaffolding of democracy and salt the earth where the ballots used to grow. . . . What happens when governors of California, New York, and Illinois say, flat out, “We no longer recognize the authority of a president elected by gerrymandered fiat”? What happens when National Guard units are federalized and told to act against their own citizens? We’ve already seen it. Federal troops in Portland. Federal agents in unmarked vans in Minneapolis. And now, a sitting U.S. president selecting military leadership based not on strategy, but on loyalty. This is what a soft coup looks like. This is how republics become dictatorships—one signed order, one packed court, one nullified election at a time. We are standing on the edge. . . . Again — so much more, if you have time. Finally: Part 3: The Splintered Nation It concludes: . . . We are Rome, late-stage and over-leveraged, watching the aqueducts rot and cheering for the lion fights. We are the USSR in 1991, holding onto flags while the currency dies and the borders shift. We are whatever comes next. And we are not ready. But we’d better get ready. Because if we’re not careful, the only thing we’ll have left to pass on to our children is a flag, a song, and a series of TikTok videos explaining why there’s no more bread. What was America? It was an attempt. And we are failing it. So tell me . . . Am I lying? Join Indivisible. Support the opposition. Spread DIS-disinformation. And have a great weekend.
The Mozart Of Math August 7, 2025August 7, 2025 [OPRT had its earnings call yesterday (here’s the transcript) and upped its guidance to projected earnings of $1.20-$1.40 a share for the year. Were it to trade at 10X the mid-point of that range (for context, the S&P 500 trades at around 29X earnings), the stock would about double from yesterday’s close.] Yesterday’s post was way too long — four posts, really — but as Seth Meyers made clear Monday night, that’s where we are these days — multiple huge news stories every day. Today, just a few disparate items, some of which you may already have seen: Adam Schiff has two words for the President. Trump Taps George Santos to Head Dept. Of Labor Statistics. How to Identify Fugitive Democrats By Texas Governor Greg Abbott 10 seconds of advice from “the happy grownup.” He’s the ‘Mozart’ of Math and Trump Killed His Funding The latest casualty in the administration’s assault on higher education is a legendary researcher who embodies the best of America. He was 7 when he started calculus, 13 when he became the youngest person ever to win the International Mathematical Olympiad, and 19 when he started his Ph.D. at Princeton. Tao’s work on prime numbers has provided crucial insights into random-number generation, which is the way computers produce the (nearly) unpredictable figures that are necessary for cryptography and cybersecurity. His research into the math of imaging has helped to make MRIs faster and smarter. . . . Read it and weep. Finally, in case you missed yesterday’s first item, I offer it again. It’s just such an important clip. Join Indivisible. Support the opposition. Spread DIS-disinformation.
A Few Words About Death August 6, 2025August 5, 2025 A little dark, I know; but let’s get it out there all at once. The last of the four is actually kind of inspiring. Here goes: 1. THE DEATH OF DEMOCRACY This clip is stunningly, profoundly important. If you do nothing else today, please watch. And share widely. Only then, if you have time . . . 2. THE DAY THE MARKET DIED Tom Friedman: The America We Knew Is Rapidly Slipping Away Of all the terrible things Donald Trump has said and done as president, the most dangerous one just happened on Friday. . . . He fired Erika McEntarfer, the Senate-confirmed head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for bringing him economic news he did not like, and in the hours immediately following, the second most dangerous thing happened: The senior Trump officials most responsible for running our economy — people who in their private businesses never would have contemplated firing a subordinate who brought them financial data they did not like — all went along for the ride. . . . The moment I heard what Trump had done, I had a flashback. It was January 2021, and it had just been reported that Trump, after losing the 2020 election, had tried to pressure Georgia’s Republican secretary of state to “find” him enough votes — exactly 11,780, Trump said — to overturn the presidential election and even threatened him with “a criminal offense” if he didn’t. The pressure came during an hourlong telephone call, according to an audio recording of the conversation. The difference, though, is that back then there was something called a Republican official with integrity. And so Georgia’s secretary of state did not agree to fabricate votes that did not exist. But that species of Republican official seems to have gone completely extinct in Trump’s second term. So Trump’s rotten character is now a problem for our whole economy. Going forward, how many government bureaucrats are going to dare to pass along bad news when they know that their bosses . . . will not only fail to defend them but will actually offer them up as a sacrifice to Trump to keep their jobs? Shame on each and every one of them — particularly on Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, who knows better and did not step in. What a coward. As Bessent’s predecessor, Janet Yellen, the former Treasury secretary and also the former chair of the Federal Reserve — and a person with actual integrity — told my Times colleague Ben Casselman of the B.L.S. firing: “This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic.” It is important to know how foreigners are looking at this. Bill Blain, a London-based bond trader who publishes a newsletter popular among market experts called Blain’s Morning Porridge, wrote on Monday: “Friday, Aug. 1 might go down in history as the day the U.S. Treasury market died. There was an art to reading U.S. data. It relied on trust. Now that is broken — if you can’t trust the data, what can you trust?” . . . In May the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, fired two top intelligence officials who oversaw an assessment that contradicted Trump’s assertions that the gang Tren de Aragua was operating under the direction of the Venezuelan regime. Their assessment undermined the dubious legal rationale Trump invoked — the rarely used 1798 Alien Enemies Act — to allow the suspected gang members to be thrown out of the country without due process. And now this trend toward self-blinding is spreading to further corners of the government. One of America’s premier cyberwarriors, Jen Easterly, who was the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency during the Biden administration, had her appointment to a senior teaching position at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point revoked last week by Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll after Laura Loomer, a far-right conspiracy theorist, posted that Easterly was a Biden-era mole. . . . Easterly’s response on LinkedIn: “As a lifelong independent, I’ve served our nation in peacetime and combat under Republican and Democratic administrations. I’ve led missions at home and abroad to protect all Americans from vicious terrorists …. I’ve worked my entire career not as a partisan, but as a patriot — not in pursuit of power, but in service to the country I love and in loyalty to the Constitution I swore to protect and defend, against all enemies.” And then she added this advice to the young West Pointers she will not have the honor of teaching: “Every member of the Long Gray Line knows the Cadet Prayer. It asks that we ‘choose the harder right instead of the easier wrong.’ That line — so simple, yet so powerful — has been my North Star for more than three decades. In boardrooms and war rooms. In quiet moments of doubt and in public acts of leadership. The harder right is never easy. That’s the whole point.” That is the woman Trump did not want teaching our next generation of fighters. And that ethic — always choose the harder right instead of the easier wrong — is the ethic that Bessent, Hassett, Chavez-DeRemer and Greer know nothing of — not to mention Trump himself. That is why, dear reader, though I am a congenital optimist, for the first time I believe that if the behavior that this administration has exhibited in just its first six months continues and is amplified for its full four years, the America you know will be gone. And I don’t know how we will get it back. Join Indivisible. Support the opposition. Spread DIS-disinformation. 3. DEATH IN GAZA Jonathan Alter: What is actually happening with food and famine on the ground. 4. DEATH WITH DIGNITY Colombia is way ahead of us. At least in theory. In practice — as this gripping, heart-rending but inspiring profile makes clear — it’s not so simple.
Paul Krugman — And The Gospel Worth Spreading August 5, 2025August 4, 2025 Nobel laureate Paul Krugman July 30: Fossil Fool. The EU is an economic superpower and could have retaliated effectively against Trump’s illegal tariffs — illegal under both U.S. and international law. Instead, Europe did nothing and even made some apparent concessions. But notice my wording: apparent concessions. The optics of the Trump-EU deal were humiliating, and optics matter. If you examine the substance, however, it starts to look as if Europe played Trump for a fool. Specifically, a fossil fool. The EU made two sort-of pledges to Trump. First, that it would invest $600 billion in the United States. Second, that it would buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy, mainly oil and gas, over the next three years. The first promise was empty, while the second was nonsense. . . . Paul Krugman August 3: The Economics of Smoot-Hawley 2.0. . . . Unless the courts rule Trump’s tariffs illegal — which they clearly are, but I fully expect the Supreme Court to uphold them anyway — Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the new normal. . . . Crucially, what Trump is really waging is mostly a class war against middle- and lower-income Americans rather than a trade war against other countries. The hit from his tariffs to the typical family is much bigger than the hit to GDP. Also, it’s important to understand that all of Trump’s tariffs violate solemn agreements — agreements ratified by Congress — that the United States has made in the past. So the Trump tariffs have inflicted massive and possibly irreparable damage on U.S. credibility. . . . But he’s having fun! Rule by whim! Rule by decree! Unchecked power! The center of the entire world’s attention!!!! Do you seriously think he plans to leave at the end of this term? Putin faces no term limits. Xi doesn’t. Kim Jong-Un doesn’t. El Salvador’s dictator and prison-meister doesn’t. Why should he? If you missed David Remnick’s thumbnail profile I linked to yesterday, here it is again. Some Christians are okay with all this. This one is not (2 minutes). Spread the gospel, friends, whether you’re religious or not.
She’s Not My Type August 4, 2025August 4, 2025 “When you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.” But no, actually, they don’t — and you can’t. At least not in the case of E. Jean Carroll. I keep coming back to her book, She’s Not My Type, because it’s a stand-in for . . . everything. There is just no way anyone can listen (best at 1.3X speed) and not know for certain that Trump violently assaulted Carroll against her will and then lied and lied and lied and lied about it. So Carl won’t read it. If he doesn’t read it, it’s easier to deny. Similarly, there’s no way anyone can read the voluminous Mueller Report and possibly think “Russia, Russia, Russia” is a hoax or that Trump did not obstruct justice. But if you don’t read it, it’s easier to deny. There is no way a serious person can look at the facts and not know for certain that the 2020 election was not rigged. Or that the latest jobs report was not rigged. Or that Trump’s 2016 Inaugural crowd was not the largest in history. Or that Trump did not willfully conceal top-secret documents he took from the White House. Or that the January 6 rioters, many of them sentenced by Trump-appointed judges, deserved to be pardoned. And yet a sizeable portion of the country won’t allow itself to know these things. It’s chosen sides and, having done so, has chosen to adopt “alternative facts.” Can you imagine if Obama had done any of these things? (2 minutes). A short bio of America’s Mussolini by David Remnick. BONUS Fareed Zakaria noted the accelerating multi-trillion-dollar global arms race and concluded his indispensable weekly broadcast yesterday with this excerpt from Dwight D. Eisenhower’s famous Cross of Iron speech: Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.
Far Worse Than The Job Numbers . . . August 2, 2025 . . . is how Trump reacted to them. Before he knew what Trump would say, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman concluded, sardonically: One thing is clear: The previously reported good numbers were proof of Trump’s brilliance. Now that they’ve been revised away, the bad numbers are clearly Biden’s fault, or maybe Jerome Powell’s, or Barack Obama’s. Or maybe Hunter’s laptop. But no, Trump did not blame the bad numbers on someone else — he simply denied that they were real. They were rigged against him, he said, just like the 2020 election or E. Jean Carroll’s phony rape allegation.* So he announced he would fire the 20-year veteran economist who oversaw them. Which is far worse than some bad job numbers, because it tells the global investment community they can no longer trust us. One more reason that U.S. stocks, as a group, may have a lot further to fall. Robert Reich: Trump destroys our source of information about jobs. This is beyond irresponsible. I spent much of the 1990s as Secretary of Labor. One unit of the Labor Department is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I was instructed by my predecessors as well as by the White House that one of my cardinal responsibilities was to guard the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Otherwise, this crown jewel of knowledge about jobs and the economy would be compromised. If politicized, it would no longer be trusted as a source of information. So what does Trump do? With one fell swoop on Friday he essentially destroyed the credibility of the BLS. It’s what dictators do. They issue decrees (he calls them “executive orders”); they cow the opposition. If you report bad news, they fire you. (But being a total sycophant, as noted yesterday, “can be a fantastic career move.”) Trump has already managed to weaken the dollar dramatically, making everything we import more expensive — even before adding on the tariffs that will hit consumers shortly. And now he is destroying the credibility of our numbers. Secretary Reich’s short letter is worth reading and — sharing — in full. BONUS Thanks to Glenn Sonnenberg for this wonderful 2006 quote from George W. Bush: America needs to conduct this debate on immigration in a reasoned and respectful tone. Feelings run deep on this issue and as we work it out, all of us need to keep some things in mind. We cannot build a unified country by inciting people to anger, or playing on anyone’s fears, or exploiting the issue of immigration for political gain. We must always remember that real lives will be affected by our debates and decisions, and that every human being has dignity and value no matter what their citizenship papers say. *If you listen at 1.3X speed, I think you’ll really enjoy Not My Type: One Woman vs. a President. Sure, almost everyone knows he raped and defamed her. But when you listen to the full account, as contrasted with his categorical denials, you will see at the most granular and definitive level what a liar he is.
Gambling + Gaza July 31, 2025August 1, 2025 Robert Reich: The Financial Bubble Will Soon Burst. This isn’t an investment letter and I’m not an investment advisor. But I want to warn you. The financial economy — stocks, bonds, and their derivatives — is in for a big reality check, and I think it will happen soon. The real economy is showing worrisome signs. . . . And remember: Trump’s big tariffs haven’t hit yet. They go into effect tomorrow. That will cause prices to rise and consumers to pull back. . . . Yet despite all this worrisome news, investors are going nuts buying up super-risky assets. The financial economy is immersed in the kind of wild gambling we saw leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. We’re seeing it all over again — this time with cryptocurrency tokens, meme stocks, junk bonds, shares of Meta and Microsoft, and the reemergence of blank-check entities . . . I’m not suggesting you cash in your stocks and bonds, but if I were you I wouldn’t follow the crowd into more risky investments. Again, I’m not an investment advisor, but there’s so much wild gambling going on right now that I fear we’re soon in for another financial crisis. OPRT I gambled $6,000 yesterday that I will probably lose to buy 400 calls on OPRT that expire August 15. Each gives me the right to buy 100 shares of OPRT at $7.50 . . . which is worth nothing unless the stock, currently $6.20 a share, climbs above $7.50 in the next two weeks. My idea? The company is scheduled to release second quarter earnings August 6. If OPRT is indeed on track to earn “in the range of $1.10 to $1.30” this year, as they have previously projected, then the quarterly numbers they release might confirm they’re on track to do so. At that point, might “the market” then bid the price up to, say, 10X the lower end of the projected earnings range? Which is to say, $11? The earnings they announce could of course be disappointing. Or could be fine but no one cares. Either way, I will lose $6,000. But in case the stock did jump to $11, each of my 400 15-cent calls ($150 each, because each is for 100 shares) would be worth $3.50 ($3,500), so $6,000 would magically have become $140,000. I totally don’t expect this to happen (though a run up to $8 would still yield a triple; to $9, a tentuple). But stranger things have happened. (Here are 40 of them.) To me, this is not “wild gambling” of the type Robert Reich decries but (I tell myself) well considered gambling. Emil Bove Is a Sign of the Times He has demonstrated that total sycophancy to the president can be a fantastic career move. A GLIMMER OF GAZA HOPE Arab States Call for Hamas to Disarm Amid Push for a Palestinian State I mean, it’s very brave of the surviving billionaire Hamas leadership, wherever they now are (certainly not in Gaza!), to fight to the bitter end, no matter the horrible toll. But if they really cared about their fellow Palestinians, they might have built a prosperous Gaza instead of a war machine after Israel vacated the strip in 2005; or at least have done what the Japanese eventually did after their surprise attack on Pearl Harbor: surrender. (And then build a wonderfully prosperous country.) Is it genocide? This Israeli genocide scholar, Omer Bartov — and many others — say yes. Yet it would seem to me: no. (War crimes? Crimes against humanity? All too likely so. And horrible enough without adding genocide to the indictment.) To me, genocide, like any other “-cide,” means deliberate killing for the purpose of extermination. That’s not what we did at Hiroshima or Nagasaki. I don’t think it applies to Gaza. That said, Bartov’s indictment — and the view so passionately expressed by the Patinkins that you’ve likely seen — should be considered by Jews everywhere, not least in the Knesset. To those rightly concerned by the spike in antisemitism generally, and on college campuses in particular, I commend my friend Matt Nosanchuk’s magnificently level-headed, compelling July 15 testimony before the House Committee on Education and Workforce. Shalom.
For All The Marbles July 30, 2025July 31, 2025 Democrats: It’s Do Or Die On Redistricting. This is for all the marbles, Rick Wilson argues, so worth the 7-minute watch. Which might lead you, as it led me, to read his print piece: The Redistricting Arms Race. For fun this weekend as you power walk, listen to E. Jean Carroll (at 1.3x speed) rea Not My Type: One Woman vs. a President, her memoir. Even more compelling, if less fun: Abundance, By Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson. Must reading, especially for Democrats — at least the first 56 pages up to the end of Chapter 1.
Of Sound Mind And Body July 30, 2025 BRAIN HQ New Study Shows How to Change Trajectory of Cognitive Decline Compared with some of the other BrainHQ studies I’ve pointed you to over the years, this one seems little more than confirmatory. But it’s a good reminder that, whether you’re Tom Brady or just the average Joe or Jill scared that you or a parent or loved one will develop Alzheimer’s or dementia . . . or afflicted with tinnitus or PTSD . . . or simply wanting to be sharper . . . 15 minutes a week with BrainHQ could have a dramatic positive effect on your future. And it’s free . . . or close to free if you want the whole package. And, yes, I own a tiny piece of it. NOOM I own none of Noom; I just use it. But having now gone from 159 to 153 in a month, I can tell you (again) it works. The first week isn’t particularly fun because (a) you have to get used to its features; (b) you’ll doubt it will work for you. But of course it will! If you burn more calories than you consume, you’ll will lose weight. Duh! And if you do it by eating right (and perhaps walking and/or exercising a little more), your health will improve. The trick is simply to think of it as another game on your phone. If you’re competitive, like me, you’ll make sure to “win.” Which becomes easier as the progress you see strengthens your resolve to continue. As with most new (good) habits, be it BrainHQ or Noom, the hardest part is starting. I need healthy, sharp readers. Get to work. DIS-DISINFORMATION How to fight lies. If you’ve been reading my DIS-disinformation rants, you may find this Ink interview on point. In his book How to Win an Information War, Peter Pomerantsev, a Ukrainian-born British author and academic and an expert on propaganda and information warfare — brings to life the remarkable story of a cunning World War II propagandist named Sefton Delmer. A British national raised in Germany, Delmer was the mastermind behind a series of enormously popular radio broadcasts that appeared to come from Nazis who had grown disenchanted with their party. But these broadcasters were no Nazis. They were only pretending in order to sow doubts about the Nazi party among German soldiers and citizens. As I’ve suggested, each of us could play a similar role, exposing Trump fans to information they don’t encounter on Fox News. Or you could just erect billboards that it would be hard for drivers not to see: New DNC Billboards Outside Shuttering Rural Hospitals Blame Closure on Trump’s Gutting of Health Care This is similar to what I’ve been proposing with regard to all those great infrastructure projects Republicans are taking credit for — after having voted against them.
The Fourth Commandment July 29, 2025 Keep your eye on Texas State Representative and pastor James Talarico. This 50-second clip on the 10 Commandments is a hoot. If it grabs you, take 4 more minutes to see how he handles a fellow Christian. Here’s a short TikTok he did that got 18 million views. Here’s 2 minutes on why he’s a Democrat. It comes from his two and a half hours on Joe Rogan — one of the things he describes here. SETH MYERS TAKES A CLOSER LOOK Trump Can’t Escape Epstein Questions in Scotland Nothing particularly new here; but aren’t we entitled to a little fun as the wars rage on, norms are shattered, and we — being, in the eyes of some, fundamentally a Christian nation — cut off aid to desperate people? Speaking of which . . . How to watch. . . the South Park episode everyone’s talking about.