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Andrew Tobias
Andrew Tobias

Money and Other Subjects

Why Kamala Will Win Pennsylvania

October 27, 2024October 27, 2024

My friend Terry Allen offers:


13 Reasons I think Kamala will win PA (and get to 270 electoral votes while doing it).

  1. The polls say that the swing states are essentially deadlocked.  The party that turns out the most of its voters will win the battle. The democrats are ahead on the enthusiasm scale, evidenced by the far greater small donations they have received and the unprecedented number of volunteers.

  2. Roe v. Wade will inspire huge numbers (especially women) to come out and vote.  Every recent election that expanded state abortion rights has won big time, even in red states.

  3. Huge numbers of early voters makes it easier for democratic workers to winnow down the lists of registered voters they need to contact to make sure they vote.

  4. Taylor Swift and Beyonce have endorsed Kamala and encouraged young people who love them to register and vote. Young people are less likely to vote, but when they do, it’s usually for the more progressive candidates.

  5. There are more women than men in PA and women have averaged about 60-40% for Democrats. And women are more likely to vote than men.

  6. There are 600,000 people of Polish descent in PA, and Kamala was wise enough to warn them that their old country is where Putin will invade next if he wins Ukraine.

  7. The association of black farmers (many former Republicans) have endorsed Kamala.

  8. Trump fails every popularity poll.  Even people who plan to vote for him feels he is repugnant. When some moderate Republicans see the choice on the ballot, many will just not be able to check the name of the convicted felon and women assaulter.

  9. Trump has not even tried to expand his base.  His rallies are designed to appeal only to those people already on board. This base was not large enough to elect him in 2020, and Kamala seems to be a more formidable challenge than Biden was.

  10. Since Trump rode down the golden escalator cheered on by a crowd that he paid to be there 9 years ago, 36 million Americans have turned 18 and are eligible to vote.  The great majority of young people are more progressive, and care about the climate issue which the Democrats own.  On the other hand, since then, 18 million Americans have died, and older people tend to be more conservative (hence, Florida has recently become a red state).

  11. More than 100 motorcyclists in Philadelphia (mostly black males) spent this weekend visiting areas outside that city where low voter turnout is the norm.  They stop at bars and restaurants and give a little speech describing why everyone should register and vote for Kamala.

  12. Over 3 million Americans have student loans, many of which have been forgiven by the Biden-Harris administration.  Every one of these people should be voting Democratic, especially since the Republicans have fought against loan forgiveness.

  13. Trump has been showing signs of dementia at his rallies, and his age is becoming as issue that he himself was broadcasting as dangerous when Biden was his likely challenger.

  14. (I believe in under-promising and over-delivering, just as Kamala does,) When both Trump and Kamala were in Texas with only 10 days until the election, Trump was either wasting money in a red state or he was worried that Cruz might be vulnerable, and Kamala was there (along with Beyonce and Willie Nelson) for the same reason.

  15. On Friday, October 25, Trump flew to Michigan to have a rally which was streamed by PBS.  He was 3 hours late, and many attendees had long since departed.  His words were watched by 47,000 PBS followers.  On the same day, Kamala gave a speech in Texas attended by 22,000, and PBS streamed it as well, but to an audience of 2.5 million, or more than 50 times as many people as those who tuned into Trump.

  16. Democrats are clearly winning the ground game in PA with so many volunteers.  The New York Times reported that 24,000 registered voters were contacted in one time period over which only 3000 Republicans were.

  17. Several busloads of students from the University of Virginia and the State of Washington arrived in PA to volunteer (reported to me by a long-time county-level Democratic worker and supervisor who said she had never seen the huge numbers of volunteers that have come on board this year).


Thanks, Terry.  Those are good reasons.

Several of my friends are on those buses.

Thanks to all of you who’ve helped pay for them.

 

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