Potentially Fantastic News October 29, 2021 Jim Burt: Since you enjoyed street magic, I thought you might like to try another kind — optical illusions. This one is also educational! → “Heavy!” as we used to say. This one is more traditional magic, and he even reveals how it’s done! → It will blow your mind. This one is truly scary: “Nostalgia and resentment could be enough to catapult Trump back into the presidency.” In a 2011 speech, Donald Trump explained his single top rule in life: “Get even with people. If they screw you, screw them back 10 times as hard. I really believe it.” He’s repeated the same idea over and over again in speeches, tweets, and books published under his byline. In 2024, the targets of Trump’s revenge are American law and American democracy. . . . . . . In Trump’s first term, the country was protected to some degree by his ignorance and ineptitude. . . . → Few people understand how essential the DNC is to the 50 state parties that rely on its financial support; and to the 8,000 Democratic candidates who rely on its data and tools. Or how good the current DNC staff is. Or how much more valuable contributions are now than next fall. If you’d like to hold the Senate and House — which is going to be tough — or expand our majorities — tougher still but absolutely doable — now is the time to help. And now the potentially fantastic news which looks likely to become law (although I’m still officially on strike until it does): Nearly $2 trillion of investment over the next decade to make life better for those struggling hardest to make ends meet . . . . . . paid for by wonderfully successful, spectacularly wealthy, mostly patriotic Americans who can easily — if (being human) grudgingly — afford it. What is that you say? It doesn’t do all you’d hoped? Join the club — and enable further progress by investing now to win the midterms next fall. Have a great weekend!
My Own Little Picket Line October 27, 2021October 26, 2021 I’m on strike until Congress passes something. Or at least until tomorrow. In the meantime, I offer this old video of David Blaine street magic. You’ll want to skip ahead through the ads, but not the rest — it’s amazing. And then he levitates. (Thanks Mel!) BONUS Bitcoin: not just for kidnappers and ransomware. The currency of the alt-right, as well.
Advice From The Mooch! October 26, 2021October 25, 2021 Picking up from yesterday, here is Scaramucci on bitcoin. He’s bullish: “Anybody that does the homework … ends up investing into it. Look at Ray Dalio, a bitcoin skeptic, now a bitcoin investor,” Scaramucci said, adding that other big-name investors such as Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller have also bought bitcoin. “These are brilliant guys [who] did the homework and drew a conclusion that they needed to own a piece of bitcoin,” he said. Yet when I clicked that Ray Dalio link, I found a tepid endorsement at best. Dalio prefers gold. (And that was when bitcoin was 10 weeks ago, before bitcoin became 59% more expensive than it is today.) Could the disgraced former president’s 11-day communications director — a great salesman — have gotten carried away touting bitcoin as he did touting the disgraced former president? (He now hopes Trump won’t run in 2024.) BONUS David Brock: I Was Wrong About Donald Trump.
All-Time Highs October 24, 2021October 24, 2021 Bitcoin hit $66,000 Friday before dropping back a bit. Here’s a question: Which would you rather have? A mortgage-free four-bedroom duplex with a Sub-Zero fridge, central air, hot tub and a pool — or 10 bitcoin? I am so torn. The Dow, meanwhile, may finally break through 36,000 this week. I’ve been waiting ever since the 1999 publication of Dow 36,000, co-authored by Kevin Hassett, who would become presidential candidate John McCain’s chief economic advisor. From the Introduction: [A]s the Dow rose above 11,000, Wall Street analysts and financial journalists warned that stocks were dangerously overvalued. They were wrong. Stocks were [and are] UNDERVALUED. Tomorrow, [they] could immediately double, triple, or even quadruple and still not be too expensive. The Dow is now close enough to 36,000 to have effectively borne out the title. But it did take 22 years. And just as the Dow seemed a little toppy at 11,000 in 1999 (it would bottom out at 6,500 ten years later), so does it seem a bit toppy today. That said, especially for people with decades ahead of them, a habit of steadily buying $200 or $2,000 of index funds each month is almost surely a habit worth keeping. Should the market tank, you’d just be getting that many more shares “on sale.” More to say about “where to put your money now,” but the new season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm” is about to begin, so (as my mother used to say) first things first. Have a great week.
Don’t Miss This One October 22, 2021October 21, 2021 Longer than the Gettysburg Address, for sure. But I think Lincoln — and the Founders — would have been moved, grateful, and cheering: Angus King’s speech, in case you haven’t already seen it. I’m sending it to Republican friends, asking for their thoughts. Have a great weekend.
Liz Cheney Tuesday October 21, 2021October 20, 2021 If you have five minutes, watch it all. Otherwise, just the last 90 seconds, addressing her Republican colleagues.
Living Forever October 20, 2021October 19, 2021 In case you missed this “The Daily” podcast . . . Jeanne Calment lived her entire life in the South of France. She filled her days with leisurely pursuits, enjoying a glass of port, a cigarette and some chocolate nearly every day. In 1997, Ms. Calment died. She was 122. With medical and social advances mitigating diseases of old age and prolonging life, the number of exceptionally long-living people is increasing sharply. But no one is known to have matched, let alone surpassed, Ms. Calment’s record. Longevity scientists hold a wide range of nuanced perspectives on the future of humanity. Some consider life span to be like a candle wick, burning for a limited time. While others view it as a supremely, maybe even infinitely elastic band. As the eminent physicist Richard Feynman put it in a 1964 lecture, “There is nothing in biology yet found that indicates the inevitability of death.” . . . you might want to listen. (I assume it was that daily cigarette that killed her.)
Barney, Chris, and Rudy October 19, 2021October 18, 2021 Barney Frank on Afghanistan: The Lesson of Afghanistan May Not Be What You Think It Is. Including this: “If Europeans decide they won’t let us spend $100 billion a year to defend them against threats they have more than sufficient resources to meet, America will benefit economically and politically.” Barney and Chris Dodd (of “Dodd-Frank”) call for reappointing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. BONUS Giuliani Is Probably Screwed.
We Are In Good Hands October 18, 2021October 17, 2021 Meet Pramila Jaypal — MBA, former investment banker, leader of the progressive caucus. Pramila Jayapal Won’t Let the Biden Presidency Fail. We are in good hands. And Conservative David Brooks is in favor of pretty much what she is — a robust, transformative package. He has it exactly right: I’ve spent the past few weeks in a controlled fury . . . . . . I can practically hear the spirits of our ancestors crying out . . . . . . Read again Robert Kagan’s foreboding Washington Post essay on how close we are to a democratic disaster. He’s talking about a group of people so enraged by a lack of respect that they are willing to risk death by Covid if they get to stick a middle finger in the air against those who they think look down on them. They are willing to torch our institutions because they are so resentful against the people who run them. The Democratic spending bills are economic packages that serve moral and cultural purposes. . . . In real, tangible ways, they would redistribute dignity back downward. . . . In normal times I’d argue that many of the programs in these packages may be ineffective. I’m a lot more worried about debt than progressives seem to be. But we’re a nation enduring a national rupture, and the most violent parts of it may still be yet to come. These packages say to the struggling parents and the warehouse workers: I see you. Your work has dignity. You are paving your way. You are at the center of our national vision. This is how you fortify a compelling moral identity, which is what all of us need if we’re going to be able to look in the mirror with self-respect. . . . Read the whole thing; and if you happen to know Senators Manchin or Sinema, please pass it on. If you’ll be in New York sometime between now and January 2, don’t miss The Lehman Trilogy — theater at its best. Amazing. Wonderful. If you want to read a really good book, live better, and meet New York’s next mayor, don’t miss Eric Adams’ Healthy At Last. Have a great week!
Pessimism: Meet Optimism October 14, 2021October 14, 2021 This is a Paul Revere moment. Will Americans who love democracy have the bandwidth to listen to more than a four word message shouted from a horse? Here is the long form, currently sold out on Amazon but the e-book is cheaper and more Earth-friendly anyway: Midnight in Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy and Still Could. We beat the British — but it wasn’t easy. We beat the fascists — but it wasn’t easy. We won the Cold War — but it wasn’t easy. We can hold onto our democracy — but it won’t be easy. One optimistic note? Democracy is something conservatives, socialists, libertarians, and progressives all want. And here’s another: Pessimism about the Jan. 6 committee is unwarranted. Democracies collapse. Putin, very possibly the richest man in the world, is laughing all the way to the bank. Read Midnight in Washington.