A Commitment To Ignorance June 30, 2021June 29, 2021 But first . . . > Are you an LGBT ally? Can you spare fifty bucks? Join Kamala Harris, Barbra Streisand, Whoopi, Andy, Billy, and more . . . tonight! . . . to celebrate Pride and keep Congress out of Trump’s hands. > RECAF touched $11 — giving us a 100-day quadruple — then abruptly dropped two bucks. The company responded. Playing with money I can truly afford to lose, I’m hanging on in hope of a further tentuple. > The vaccine kept this Brit from having to go to the hospital or the morgue. It was more like a bad flu. But he could have infected others had he not isolated. A cautionary tale. > Solving all our problems would take a magician. Maybe this one? (Thanks David!) And now . . . Paul Krugman asks, What Underlies The G.O.P. Commitment To Ignorance? As everyone knows, leftists hate America’s military. Recently, a prominent left-wing media figure attacked Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declaring, “He’s not just a pig, he’s stupid.” Oh, wait. That was no leftist, that was Fox News’s Tucker Carlson. What set Carlson off was testimony in which Milley told a congressional hearing that he considered it important “for those of us in uniform to be open-minded and widely read.” The problem is obvious. Closed-mindedness and ignorance have become core conservative values, and those who reject these values are the enemy, no matter what they may have done to serve the country. . . . A column worth reading (as Mark Milley’s two minutes are very much worth watching). Wait — what? You want more magic? OK — 35 seconds: https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/Ancient-Chinese-Secret.mp4 (Thanks, Mel!) Join the V.P., Barbra, Whoopi, Andy, Billy, et al tonight!
Humor And Compromise June 29, 2021June 29, 2021 Did you see Timothy Egan’s op-ed last week? He argues that America is getting meaner and rightly blames people on both sides: The Trump side that would (for example) cancel Liz Cheney for standing up to the Big Lie (if you still doubt it’s a big lie, check out Michigan Republicans eviscerate Trump voter fraud claims in scathing report) . . . . . . but also the “woke” side that would (for example) disinvite gay cops from marching in New York’s Pride Parade — for five years, no less — because they’re, well, cops. Insanity. The truth is, most Americans share the same goals, most Americans are nice people, and we could get along pretty well if there weren’t systemic forces trying to divide us (with foreign adversaries masquerading as Americans fanning the flames). It’s more profitable to be sensational than to be moderate. In gerrymandered districts and low-turnout primary elections, there’s no need to appeal to moderate voters. (HR1/S1 would go a long way toward fixing that) I once wrote a book called The Only Relationship Guide You’ll Ever Need. It was one sentence long: “Be nice to each other, which I’m sure you already are; and find humor in the compromises, which I’m sure you already do — they’re worth it.” Not as spectacularly short and wise as Barack Obama’s all-encompassing “be kind and be useful” but the best I could do. In reading Egan’s essay, it occurred to me that some form of that Relationship Guide surely applies. Compromises are worth it. And humor? Did you get a chance to watch the Cassius Clay clip posted Sunday along with Peter Thiel’s $5 billion IRA? > For sure, humor is not enough. There is none to be found in the George Floyd nightmare and so much more. But in trying to get along despite our differences? It has a place. > And for sure: We can’t compromise on the truth. The earth is not half flat — it’s round. The moon landing was not partly staged — it was real. The election was not a toss-up — Trump lost. But on so much else — like smart, equitable tax policy and smart, constructive criminal justice reform to take just two of perhaps a dozen key things almost all agree we need to do better on — there must be a way to find compromises that at least 70% or 80% of us can agree would move the country forward. I would end there except to say “compromise” does not always mean “splitting the difference.” On some issues (I would argue, most), the blue team is closer to a good solution than the red team — in part because for 40 years the red team has had dramatic success swinging the pendulum towards wealth versus work while neglecting infrastructure. But on other issues (school closures is the only one that jumps to mind, but there must be others), the red team has been closer to the best solution. “False equivalence” and “what aboutism” only hurt productive dialog. Humor and compromise, by contrast, should help.
Peter Thiel’s $5 Billion Roth IRA June 26, 2021 Which is almost surely more than $5 billion, but first. . . If he had been just any obese 74-year-old, he might well have joined the 600,000. Instead, here’s exactly what happened. And also . . . https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/Cassius-Clay-Muslim.mp4 In case you forgot what a superstar personality Cassius Clay was — or why he switched religions. We’ve made enormous progress; but his story remains relevant to today’s national discussion . . . and a little humor never hurts in softening hard attitudes. (Thanks, Joey.) And now . . . Peter Thiel’s $5 billion Roth IRA may be more like $7 billion or $10 billion by now — $5 billion was its value in 2019 before the pandemic swelled so many fortunes. Because it’s a Roth, the full amount can be withdrawn tax free when he turns 59-1/2. It’s legal, and thus — I would suggest — one more example of how badly we need to rethink the level at which The Most Fortunate chip in to help meet the nation’s considerable challenges. Thiel, you may recall, is the gay man who spoke at the 2016 Republican National Convention and who secretly funded Hulk Hogan’s lawsuit that put Gawker out of business for revealing Thiel was gay. (Happy Pride, everybody.*) *”NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim June 2021 as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer Pride Month. I call upon the people of the United States to recognize the achievements of the LGBTQ+ community, to celebrate the great diversity of the American people, and to wave their flags of pride high.”
The Smart Money June 24, 2021June 23, 2021 A friend started Value Investors Club years ago and now it’s harder to get into than Harvard — if you want to be a member who posts investment ideas, sees others’ ideas, and gets to rate them, in real time. But if you’d settle for searching and reading those ideas with a several-week delay — perhaps too late to profit directly, but certainly not too late to learn how really smart investors evaluate investment opportunities — then sign right up. It’s free. BONUS: AVOID CANDLE EXPLOSIONS https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/CANDLES-FIRES.mp4 But what if you don’t have a lot of money to invest and aren’t big on candles? Never fear. If you have a television, I have something for you, too: CBS Sunday Morning. With a DVR, you can fast forward through the commercials and the occasional story that doesn’t interest you; but there won’t be many. As many of you doubtless already know, it is thoroughly a class act.
A Silly People June 23, 2021June 23, 2021 Last week, I offered China in four sobering minutes. “I prefer democracy,” I said. “But democracy that’s not paralyzed. If only Mitch McConnell would find another line of work.” As a follow-up, one of you sent Bill Maher’s must-watch March 21 “New Rules” about China — A Silly People (us, not them). It’s funny in a dark, devastating, way. McConnell was okay carving out filibuster exceptions for the two things he cares about — right-wing judges and tax cuts for the rich. But on legislation to restore voting rights protections and revitalize our national infrastructure — on those two things he won’t budge. On a happier note, you probably saw that Las Vegas Raiders defensive lineman Carl Nassib came out this week — the first active-duty NFL player ever to do so — and gave the Trevor Project $100,000. I thought that was all great, of course. But we’ve made so much progress on this front, it just seemed like another inch along the way. My jaw did not drop. Until the next day, when the NFL itself matched the $100,000 to Trevor in proud support of its gay player. That was three inches. Hats off to the better angels of America’s nature.
Chuck Schumer Has Questions June 22, 2021June 23, 2021 Five minutes to share with those of your Republican friends who remain committed to democracy. (Seems as though Hong Kong is losing its this week, with the shuttering of its free press. Score one more for the Putin / Lukashenko / Orban / Trump / Erdogan / Duterte / Xi / Bolsonaro strong-man school of “free and fair elections.”)
Each Step Was So Small, So Inconsequential . . . June 21, 2021June 20, 2021 How Republicans Are Expanding Their Power Over Elections: . . . Previously, election board members were selected by both political parties, county commissioners and the three biggest municipalities in Troup County. Now, the G.O.P.-controlled county commission has the sole authority to restructure the board and appoint all the new members. . . . . . . Republicans have introduced at least 216 bills in 41 states to give legislatures more power over elections officials . . . . . . “It’s a thinly veiled attempt to wrest control from officials who oversaw one of the most secure elections in our history and put it in the hands of bad actors,” said Jena Griswold, the chairwoman of the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State and the current Colorado secretary of state. “The risk is the destruction of democracy.” . . . Worth reading in its entirety. It was a Founding Principle that only white men with property could vote. We had come a long way from that narrow view until, in 2013, John Roberts opened the floodgates by gutting the Voting Rights Act. Since then we’ve begun slipping back, much to the delight of Trump Republicans and the Klan, among others. One could make the argument that only college-educated people should be entrusted with the vote. Or perhaps only those with graduate degrees. That would be a boon for the blue team. Yet . . . don’t most of us by now agree that every adult should have the right to vote? Even women? Even people of color? Even people without property? Dr. Gerald M.: “Apropos the threat to democracy, you may have already seen these two articles in The New York Review: It Can Happen Here by Cass Sunstein and The Suffocation of Democracy by Christopher Browning, both from 2018. I admit to being very afraid.” Sunstein: . . . [E]ach step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, “regretted,” that people could no more see it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head. . . . Browning: As a historian specializing in the Holocaust, Nazi Germany, and Europe in the era of the world wars, I have been repeatedly asked about the degree to which the current situation in the United States resembles the interwar period and the rise of fascism in Europe. I would note several troubling similarities and one important but equally troubling difference. . . . Browning goes on to say: “If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell.” Want to help? Click here. Like Streisand, Chenoweth, Whoopi, Andy Cohen — and Kamala, among others? Click here. Have a great week!
Tenfold From Here? Plus: China In 4 Minutes AND How To Save Democracy June 18, 2021June 18, 2021 RECAF: The geologist who told me about this one, and who has proven right so far, thinks that even at last night’s $9.70 close (a quadruple since suggested 90 days ago, and a market cap of $1.6 billion) the stock remains cheap. “If they prove 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil,” he writes, “which is within the estimates of Dan Jarvie, that’s $2 trillion worth (at $67/barrel). It certainly could be much less. There’s also the possibility it could be more.” There is SO much discounting one must do from guesstimates like this . . . but if a potential $2 trillion in oil were valued at $16 billion in terms of RECAF shares — less than 1% — the stock would be ten times its current price. At $48 billion . . . well, knowing me as some of you do, you can imagine how much fun I’m having doing the math. It may all amount to nothing! I trust you bought shares only with money you could truly afford to lose! And took much or all that money off the table, as suggested after it tripled, to be playing from now on with “house money.” But if lightning does strike, imagine the good we’ll be able to do with our share of the bonanza: whether to increase climate awareness, protect African wildlife, or promote any other progressive cause (or candidate) we care about. Choosing not to own these shares, as I’ve noted before, in no way helps advance those causes. China in four sobering minutes. I prefer democracy . . . but democracy that’s not paralyzed. If only Mitch McConnell would find another line of work. What I don’t write about every day, but think about every hour, is losing our democracy. We almost lost it in the Thirties (as Germany lost hers). Asked on a Zoom earlier this week why we didn’t, Jason Stanley (How Fascism Works) replied, simply: “The New Deal.” The New Deal addressed the anxieties, suffering, and righteous grievances 0f ordinary Americans, many of whom were ripe for the allures of communism or fascism — the extreme left or the extreme right — because we had to try something. That’s how people have been feeling for quite a while — globally, writes Thomas B. Edsall in an op-ed you should try to make time for. I first linked you to Nick Hanauer’s The Pitchforks Are Coming seven years ago . . . and that was by no means the start of the justifiable discontent. Once you do lose democracy, it’s exceptionally hard to restore. (It took the Romans two millennia.) You know the famous Ben Franklin quote, “a Republic — if you can keep it“? Well, the way we keep this one is by passing S1 (the For the People Act) and HR4 (The John Lewis Voting Rights Act) and Joe Biden’s two big infrastructure bills, The American Jobs Plan and The American Families Plan. Like the New Deal, these will leave the spectacularly rich spectacularly well off — never fear! — but give the other 99.5% a meaningful more fulfilling stake in the future. I have to think we’ll succeed. But, as I quoted President Obama yesterday, “This experiment in democracy is not self-executing. It doesn’t just happen automatically.” Want to help? Click here. Like Streisand, Chenoweth, Whoopi, Andy Cohen — Kamala — and others? Click here. Have a great weekend!
Progressophobia . . . June 17, 2021June 16, 2021 EqualDex is a remarkable overview of LGBT rights around the world. It shows where someone like me can legally love, give blood, adopt, marry — and more. (Thanks, Mel!) It’s a bit misleading, though. Some places where gay sex is still technically illegal don’t seem much to care. While others, where it’s technically legal — like Russia — are awful. (Welcome To Chechnya: Inside The Russian Republic’s Deadly War On Gays.) Speaking of which, treat yourself to Bill Maher on Progressophobia. So important and so good. (Thanks, David!) BONUS President Obama’s take: “This experiment in democracy is not self-executing. It doesn’t just happen automatically.” Want to help save democracy? Click here. As I’ve argued before, giving early is almost always more powerful than giving later, when money floods in (kind of like investing: starting early gives you an edge). And giving early to the DNC is kind of like investing in an index fund — not the sexiest thing, but smarter than what 90% of investors do. So . . . thanks.
Your Very Own Slush Fund! June 16, 2021June 16, 2021 I have the best readers. One of you eats road kill. One of you is a nationally known meteorologist. One of you is a mail carrier. One of you gives hundreds of thousands of dollars to help preserve democracy. One of you tripled the size of my Roth IRA. One of you spots almost any typo and shoots a middle-of-the-night email so I can make the correction. (Bret Stephens, I learned yesterday, spells Brett with one T.) All of you are appreciated. To quote José Díaz-Balart: thank you for the privilege of your time. With that intro, I thought you might enjoy meeting fellow reader Peter Baum. In this video, he tells what it was like growing up a human calculator. He could have made a fortune counting cards or at a hedge fund, but went a different route. Watch the video . . . . . . and then meet him here, as he responds to a few of my questions. He suggests you set up a personal slush fund. WHAT DO YOU DO? I tutor — primarily for the SAT and ACT but also get adults ready for the GMAT, GRE, and LSAT. I have worked for myself and by myself since graduating Princeton in 1987. I’m not really fond of having a boss and, lord knows, you wouldn’t want me for one. Instead, I’ve trained a few “franchisees” over the years and let them find their own way in the tutoring world. HOW DO YOU INVEST? The thing that has worked best for me is keeping my equity percentage within a band. For me, at this point in my life, it’s 55-70%. Within that band, I’m allowed to have any opinion I want and can buy and sell to my heart’s content. But I’m not allowed to leave the reservation for any reason, no matter how strongly I believe I’m right. This way, I constrain myself from having too much certitude. Furthermore, it acts as an automatic stabilizer. As the market tanks, I’m forced to buy to stay in the bands (and to sell when a raging bull market pushes my equity percentage too high). I’ve only been forced to trade this way 5 times in 30 years. In all cases, this went exactly against what I wanted to do, and in all 5 cases the system was right. My biggest strategy is actually psychological…when considering, say, selling a stock, I ask myself: Which will make me feel worse–selling and watching it skyrocket, or holding and watching it plummet? This process doesn’t lead to better decisions, but it does allow me to stick with my positions and not get blown out due to psychological factors. COULD YOU STILL COUNT CARDS OR HAVE YOU GOTTEN RUSTY? Counting cards is so over-learned (think 4+3 or the number of states in America), that I can still do it pretty close to flawlessly. It’s not really feasible anymore, however, for these reasons: 1)The consolidation of ownership means that your results will make the rounds quite quickly, allowing them to get a quick and accurate read. 2) Automatic shuffling machines allow the casinos to shuffle more frequently. Penetration (the percent of all the cards that get dealt) is critical, and the auto-shufflers allow them to lower penetration. Previously, casinos didn’t want to shuffle because during that time they were making no money. 3) Vegas casinos have come to rely on table games less as time has progressed and many now have rules that give them an edge that counting can’t counteract (like paying 6:5 for blackjack instead of 3:2). In the 90s and early 00s I played at $25 tables and got away with it. I suspect, although I don’t know, that my act could have survived at $50 and possibly $100 tables. I was in it for the fun and transgressive nature of it, so I stuck to “playing quarters”. JUDGING FROM OUR EMAIL ADDRESS, YOU PLAY BASKETBALL? I played basketball for a long time, until the knees and ankles stopped cooperating. Since then, I’ve moved my passion to Lindy hop. (Examples here and here.) ANYTHING ELSE WE SHOULD SHARE? Yes. My contribution to financial innovation is the slush fund. You see, there exists some subset of the population so committed to thrift and financial discipline that they need a safety valve that gives them permission for profligacy. Speaking as a member of that subset, I can say that the slush fund has improved my quality of life. Here’s how it works: Funding: The incoming funds have to be money that is somehow unexpected or exceeds expectations. Mine have come from 3 sources: savings that surpass the annual goal, profits from speculative investments (beyond the losses from same), and tutoring-client tips. Basically, this is “found” money. Spending: The most important part of the plan. Money from the slush fund can *ONLY* be spent on frivolous luxury goods, the sorts of things that penurious planners do not blow their money on. In the 8 years of the fund I’ve bought an incredibly decadent chair that gently glides on rails (it feels very womb-like) and a stand-up arcade-style video game. The money can also be spent directly on yourself: for example, a yenta so that I could find a wonderful woman (I did!). The slush fund can also provide discounts to upgrade items. Want that $1500 couch but think a couch should never cost more than $1000? Easy. The slush fund kicks in the last $500. Mechanics: The slush fund should actually be its own little savings account. More importantly (for those of us who track their finances), the slush fund is entirely off the books. In other words, that fur-lined bathtub you so desperately need shows up nowhere in your records — it’s free money. The psychological benefits of this fund have been astounding. I have incentive to have a good year with the business. It makes that speculative investing way more fun. Most importantly, it gives me license to live a little. And the tinge of pseudo-illicitness from spending from a slush fund adds to the fun of the whole project. I know this sort of thing only works for a select few. But it really kicks butt if you’re one of the few. BONUS Samantha Power Still Believes America Can Help Save the World Thank you for the privilege of your time.