How To Squeeze A Lemon May 30, 2021May 30, 2021 But first . . . Listen to Friday’s All In With Chris Hayes (28% of Republicans accept Q-Anon core beliefs) . . . killing the bipartisan investigation (it’s Benghazi that warranted nine investigations) . . . some new Giuliani . . . and “the Biden budget that would revolutionize the American economy.” Also . . . Bill Press: Evangelicals Give Christianity A Bad Name. For a president of the United States, Joe Biden did something highly unusual this week: something I’d bet you never even heard about — till now. On Tuesday evening, around 6 p.m., he skipped out of the White House, hopped on Marine One, helicoptered up to his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, for what the White House only described as a “local stop,” spent less than an hour, and was back in the White House by 9 p.m. Mystery solved. With no publicity, Biden had quietly carved time out of his schedule to attend the wake of longtime aide Norma Long, 75, who died on May 17 from complications related to leukemia. Long worked for Biden, first as a campaign staffer and later as director of his Wilmington office, from 1977 until his election as vice president. Biden knew her entire family. For him, she was family. And for him, family comes first. It didn’t make headlines, it didn’t change the course of history, but to me that gesture says more about who Biden is — and who Trump is not — than anything else Biden’s done as president. He’s not the most charismatic politician. He’s not the best speaker. You may not agree with his policies. You may think he’s going too fast or too slow, spending too much money or not enough. But you must say this about Joe Biden: He’s a good man, a decent man, an honest man, and a loyal friend. Four things nobody ever accused Donald Trump of being. One more thing. He’s a man of faith. Among a political class of religious pretenders, Joe Biden’s the real deal. His Catholic faith is central to who he is. He never misses mass on Sunday. He wears on his wrist the rosary beads from Our Lady of Guadalupe in Mexico his son Beau was wearing when he died. When Biden says he’s praying for you, he really means it. So, here’s what I don’t understand: How can today’s so-called evangelical Christians oppose a good man like Joe Biden and embrace an evil man like Donald Trump? Didn’t they insist, during the Clinton impeachment hearings, that “character” matters most of all? Well, speaking strictly of character, and not politics, Biden is everything evangelicals should admire and support. And Trump is everything they should detest and oppose. It makes no sense. Evangelicals preach marital fidelity and sexual abstinence, yet they embrace a man who’s twice-divorced, has been accused of sexual assault by over 20 women, paid a porn star hush money not to talk about his affair with her shortly after his third wife had given birth, and bragged about grabbing women by their private parts? . . . [who] couldn’t even name a favorite verse of the Bible, wouldn’t say whether he was an “Old or New Testament guy,” and referred to “Second Corinthians” as “Two Corinthians.” . . . who vilified immigrants, ripped children from their mother’s arms, and tried to kill Obamacare, Social Security, Medicare, food stamps, unemployment insurance and any other government program that would help the poor and oppressed who are the very heart of Jesus’s message of compassion in the New Testament? (“What you did to the least of my brethren, you did to me.”) . . . We shouldn’t even call them Christians anymore. They once believed in Christ, but now they worship the anti-Christ. They once were saved, but now are lost. And now . . . The lemon. (Thanks, Ted!) https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/Useful-Kitchen-Tricks.mp4
Shimmy, Shimmy . . . May 27, 2021May 26, 2021 RECAF: This could be fun, especially for those who bought before it tripled (and then sold some to be playing from now on with house money). It links to a report suggesting our shares could be worth $60 ($72 Canadian). BOREF: The work toward FAA certification continues. Completed: a ground vibration test, a static stiffness test. Ongoing: drop, shimmy, and steering tests. I know not what any of this means, but I read “shimmy” and, well . . . SHIMMY SHIMMY KO KO BOP By Little Anthony and the Imperials! SHIMMY SHIMMY COCOA POP By Tom Hanks! BONUS! Bob: “Re yesterday’s post, Samoa, Belarus, Russia . . . prior to the pandemic I would have only be able to identify one of those three on a map. During the pandemic I stumbled upon seterra.com, an online geography quiz site, and spent two or three minutes each day quizzing myself on the world’s countries. It’s incredible how in just a few days, using their online quiz, you can learn the locations of almost every country in the world. Lichtenstein vs. Luxembourg? Latvia or Lithuania? Mauritania vs. Mauritius? No problem. (Note: Your August 10, 2000 column was titled: “The First Embarrassment is Having to Find Mauritania.” I recall being embarrassed and looking it up.) I highly recommend the site (also available as an app) to everyone, especially school-aged children. In addition to countries, you can do states, capitals, world leaders, flags, etc. With just a few minutes a day of study they would definitely be contenders in their school’s geography bee.”
Samoa, Belarus, Russia and Mar-A-Lago May 26, 2021May 25, 2021 This is “must-listen” if you think freedom, free elections, and a free press are worth fighting for. The whole world is backsliding toward tyranny. Listen. Or read the transcript. . . . Samoa gained its independence from New Zealand in 1962. It was admitted to the United Nations in 1976. And then this weekend, they had something really nutty and potentially existentially challenging happen to them. . . .
Two Films And A Femur May 23, 2021 Watch Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles on Amazon. “You don’t have to be Jewish,” it’s universal — and 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Also 98% on RT: In the Heights, in theaters June 11. Lin-Manuel Miranda shows up in the former and wrote the latter. Immigrants — they get the job done! Ira Byock (thanks, Jim!): A student once asked anthropologist Margaret Mead, “What is the earliest sign of civilization?” The student expected her to say a clay pot, a grinding stone, or maybe a weapon. Margaret Mead thought for a moment, then she said, “A healed femur.” A femur is the longest bone in the body, linking hip to knee. In societies without the benefits of modern medicine, it takes about six weeks of rest for a fractured femur to heal. A healed femur shows that someone cared for the injured person, did their hunting and gathering, stayed with them, and offered physical protection and human companionship until the injury could mend. Mead explained that where the law of the jungle—the survival of the fittest—rules, no healed femurs are found. The first sign of civilization is compassion, seen in a healed femur. A fiddler on the roof. Sounds crazy, no? Have a great week.
Chain Gang Art – Part II: White Lives Matter May 20, 2021May 20, 2021 But first . . . PRKR won its first settlement: see yesterday’s press release and further color here. My hope — having the happy gene and a zillion shares of this thing — is that this small-ish settlement will be the first of several while we wait for potentially huge settlements or judgments in the cases against Qualcomm and Intel. And that in years to come the company may see revenue from technological advances it believes it has achieved and will be able to market once its right to reasonable license fees has been accepted. We’ll see! And now . . . If you didn’t have time to read Winferd Rembert’s story yesterday, or see his chain gang art, let me start by stating the obvious — but maybe those of us on the left need to say it more often anyway: We should all celebrate the countless straight white Christian men who’ve done so much good for our country and the world. Including many, like Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin, who — in a much different time — owned slaves. And including the overwhelming majority of straight white men today who, though not famous, contribute every bit as much to our melting pot as any other group. And some small sliver of whom have had to suffer on chain gangs themselves. But . . . wow. With so much attention paid to the crimes against oppressed people — Matthew Shepard beaten and left to die on a Wyoming fence, just for being gay; James Byrd, Jr. dragged until dead behind a pickup truck, just for being black; six million Jews murdered just for being Jewish; not to mention women oppressed around the world — well . . . . . . what about the hardships and struggles of straight white men? Life can be tough for almost anyone, and certainly it is for the working white poor who’ve lost good jobs to automation and globalization. If I fell into that group, I would almost surely resent having so little attention paid to my problems. I never enslaved or lynched anyone . . . although if you look at how our parents were able to buy the homes we inherited, with government programs that specifically excluded black people’s parents, it’s not quite so simple as that I never discriminated against anyone directly myself. Still, can anyone see the opioid crisis and not understand how so many straight white Christian men (and women) feel their problems are being ignored? I hope some will see the $1,400 checks they got, and the monthly child care checks they will start receiving July 15 — both opposed by the Republicans — and the American Jobs Act that Obama proposed but the Republicans killed — and the infrastructure bills Biden has proposed . . . I hope they will see these things, and quite a bit more that Republicans have opposed (the Consumer Financial Protection Agency? Medicare?) — as meaningful attempts to address their problems as well. Still . . . wow. If you have time, read Winferd’s story. And then read about the Freedom Riders, black and white, who risked their lives to advance the American dream: a country where all are created equal, with certain inalienable rights . . . treated with dignity and judged by the content of their character even if they had come from Ireland (“no Irish need apply!”) or were Jewish (“Jews will not replace us!”) or were the folks straight white Christian men took our land from in the first place. Look at those Freedom Riders’ mug shots, four years before the march across the Edmund Pettus Bridge. What happened to them? Where are they now? Click and see. White lives matter — for sure. Enormously! Even though it goes without saying, maybe we should say it more anyway. Still, few straight white men were enslaved or lynched or resettled on reservations or interned during World War II or paid less than women for doing the same work or beaten and tied to a fence to freeze to death simply for being straight. Some of my best friends and many of my heroes are straight white Christian men! But the rest of us deserve the same rights and respect, and haven’t always gotten it. Make sense, Carl? Have a great weekend.
Winferd Rembert: Chain Gang Art May 19, 2021May 18, 2021 If you’re still reading yesterday’s post about the tax-hike proposals I love — and a couple I hate — good. I appreciate your readership. If you’re ready for something entirely new, all I can say is: wow. More tomorrow.
How Should We Tax Capital Gains . . . May 18, 2021May 17, 2021 Victor Horvitz: “My Berkshire experience is even more harrowing than yours. For many years starting in the Seventies, I read Richard Russell’s “Dow Theory Letters.” He admired Buffett and recommended Berkshire: I bought 10 shares at $186. Soon after, Berkshire doubled and Richard sold his shares because “pigs get slaughtered” and besides, Berkshire did not pay a dividend. Richard’s mantra was to compound dividends over time. I, also, sold my shares. Previously, I had had experience with Berkshire when I was a kid growing up in New Bedford, MA. My school, Roosevelt Jr High, was just a mile up the road from the Berkshire- Hathaway shirt factory on the Acushnet River. It was 1955, and Buffet had just purchased Berkshire which was going bankrupt because the clothing industry in New Bedford was dying. Driving me to school one day, my dad declared “what kind of idiot would buy Berkshire Hathaway?” → What kind of idiot, indeed. But this reminds me to address the tax hikes being proposed to try to pay for the infrastructure plans being proposed. Republicans widely support core infrastructure proposals . . . so long as no taxes are levied to pay for them. This follows the Republican theory that there is a free lunch — that the more you cut taxes the more revenue you will raise. That the economy did better under Clinton and Obama, who raised taxes on the best off, than under Reagan, Bush, and Trump, who slashed them, would seem to argue otherwise. And that it was only Clinton and Obama, by the end of their terms, who were able to get the Debt shrinking relative to the economy, is worth noting, too. As long-time readers will recall, the National Debt had grown to 122% of GDP by the end of World War II — but shrunk to just 30% by the time Reagan took the reins and started it back up again. Bush and Trump sent it through the roof. Sadly, they were not borrowing to invest in our future, as the Biden infrastructure bills will do; they were borrowing to blow things up in Iraq and to lower taxes on the rich. I like some of the tax proposals better than others. I love the proposal to fund the IRS adequately, to collect more of the taxes that are due. Studies suggest something like a ten-to-one return on that investment. I love the Tax Excessive Pay Act, and that it would be voluntary: to avoid it, companies could simply pay their workers more or their highest-paid employee less. If they decided it was in the shareholders’ interest to pay the tax — that’s okay, too. We need the revenue. I love putting the corporate tax rate halfway back to where it was before Trump slashed it . . . or close to halfway back . . . and I love Treasury Secretary Yellen’s efforts to end the global race to the bottom, as cash-starved governments cut corporate tax rates to attract more jobs. I love getting rid of the “carried interest” outrage. I love that we might get rid of “1031 exchanges,” by which real estate investors never pay any capital gains taxes. I love treating death as a “taxable event” so that appreciated assets do not escape capital gains taxes. Which leads me to why I worry about raising the capital gains rate too high: all investors would have to do to avoid it is “not sell.” Studies have shown that, after a point, the higher the rate, the less revenue you’ll collect, as people just “buy and hold” and collect dividends. (Which isn’t a bad strategy even at the current capital gains tax rate.) I hate the proposed solution to that problem: taxing unrealized gains each year along with realized gains. It would be an accounting nightmare and lead to massive distortions and unintended consequences. But . . . I love the idea of raising the estate tax on billionheirs. Not on the bottom 99% . . . not on family farmers or bodega owners. But on estates of $50 million? And $500 million? And $20 billion? That kind of estate? You can spend all you want to while alive; you can avoid income and estate taxes by giving your money to build hospitals and endow food banks; you can leave each of your grandkids millions. But on that extra $200 million, say? Or that extra $2 billion or $20 billion? Be honest: how much pain will the estate tax cause you when you’re dead? Hasn’t this country been good to you? Why not throw your chips back into the pot to help keep her strong for future generations? As part of the estate-tax reform, I love closing, or narrowing, most of the loopholes. They apply only to the very rich — and some of them agree. Others are outraged that the government would want to take a chunk of their wealth at death. What right does the United States of America have to a chunk of their fortune? They earned it, Uncle Sam didn’t! But could they have made the same fortune if they had been born in — and had to stay in — a low-tax country like South Sudan? If living here doesn’t improve one’s chances of success, why would so many ambitious people have moved here in the Fifties and Sixties and Seventies when U.S. tax rates were far higher? We raised taxes on the rich to help pay to win World War II. Why not raise them now to help revitalize our crumbling infrastructure and regain our competitive edge? Be honest: if you are currently taking home $9 million a year, could you not make do on $7 million? If you were expecting to inherit $200 million, net of estate tax, could you not find a way to deal with inheriting only $80 million? Perhaps as good a way as any to end these meanderings: The Trump Tax Cuts In Action: Socialism For The Rich. And speaking of potential capital gains: Eric S.: “The market valued PRKR @ $1.83 believing trial was imminent. That seems to be the market’s pricing of PRKR’s odds re: Qualcomm. The trial was delayed, so price has inevitably pulled back. Isn’t it likely we’ll return to very roughly $1.83 before the trial? That would be a 70% increase. So if we buy fresh shares now, maybe we can sell in the pre-trial run-up for a 70% gain with relatively low risk. It’s a whole separate play, and I’m having trouble seeing a downside. Am I right?” → Makes sense to me. I’m sure something terrible could happen; but if and as the trial approaches, I sure don’t see the stock falling in anticipation. Meanwhile, PRKR yesterday issued its quarterly report.
“No Sober Person . . .” May 17, 2021May 17, 2021 But first . . . Talk about unfortunate decisions! As you may have seen, the organizers of New York’s Pride March have banned the contingent of gay cops who march each year. As someone who grew up when it was unimaginable that there could be gay cops — let alone marching proudly, with the Department’s blessing, in a giant, festive, happy parade — I’ve always loved that they march. The March organizers, I think, send a counter-productive message by banning good people who want to join this celebration. I hope they will reverse course. More to say about this, no doubt; but let’s leave it there for now. In response to the widely accepted truth that voter fraud is rare — and therefore no justification for passing laws that make it harder to vote (Friday’s column on voter suppression) — one of you writes: Carl L.: “In case you’ve not yet seen it: 5 minutes of education. Are you sober?” On Election Night 2018, California Central Valley Republican Congressman David Valadao held a 5,000-vote lead over his challenger. The margin was wide enough that the networks even called the race for Valadao, the Republican incumbent. But wait! There were late ballots still to be delivered by the third-party vote harvesters. When those votes came in, they broke so overwhelmingly for Cox (in a historically conservative district, no less) that Valadao’s 5,000-vote victory became an 862-vote loss. Maybe that was just a coincidence. Or maybe not. In the first major election after ballot harvesting was allowed in California, Democrats won every single congressional seat in Orange County, which had been a Republican stronghold for decades. A year earlier, no sober person would have thought that possible. → I watched the video. What strikes me as an entirely sober refutation can be found here (“Did ballot harvesting doom Republicans? More likely, just hard work by Democrats”). Not mentioned, but I think also worth noting, is that in 2017, no sober person would have imagined how badly Trump would behave leading up to the 2018 mid-terms. For example, his standing on the world stage in Helsinki taking Putin’s word over that of 17 U.S. intelligence agencies. Might some conservative Orange County voters — who favor traditional American democracy over Putin’s journalist-murdering, opposition-poisoning autocracy — have felt maybe they should put a check on his power by allowing the House to go blue? To me, that line of reasoning seems a lot more plausible than Eggers’ suggestion in the video that ballots had been altered. I asked Carl: “How would YOU successfully open thousands of sealed, signed, legitimate ballots and change their votes in some undetectable way? You’re a very smart guy. How would you do it? If you can think of no plausible way, then might you begin to doubt fraud WAS perpetrated, as Eggers wants you — and the 7 million others who’ve watched that video — to suspect?” On the video’s charge that some cities have chosen to allow non-citizens to vote in local elections (perhaps on theory of “no taxation without representation?” given that most non-citizen voters pay taxes), Carl is welcome to oppose that – but it has no relevance to federal elections and is in no way whatsoever evidence of voter fraud. Eggers wants people to worry that people are risking jail or deportation to commit fraud – as when he erroneously assailed Ohio for allowing dead people to vote. But those of us who try to get people to register and turn out to the polls know how hard it is even when they face NO jail time or deportation. (And listen, Carl: why do you think Dems are more likely to commit fraud than, say, the Trump voters who stormed the capital and beat police officers with American flags? If there is some miniscule level of voter fraud in swing states, why do you assume it’s committed more by one side that the other?) Do you remember. I asked Carl, when Bush 43 tasked all his state attorneys with trying to find voter fraud . . . but they couldn’t? Do you remember when the Trump Justice Department tried like crazy to find evidence of voter fraud . . . but couldn’t? What do you make of so many partisan Republicans in elected positions — and right-wing judges Trump appointed — finding Giuliani, et al, had failed to provide any evidence of fraud? Why are you, Carl, with the Q-Anon people on this rather than with strongly partisan Republicans like Georgia’s Governor and Secretary of State? I’m glad Carl sent me the video, because so long as millions of people believe these things, we should not dismiss them as fools — we should try to help them see they’ve been fooled. Have a great week!
A Bar Bet You Can’t Lose May 14, 2021May 14, 2021 But first, in case you’ve not yet seen it, this leaked video — three minutes of a Trump alum who heads a stealth Heritage Foundation drive to enact voter suppression bills. Voter suppression underpins modern Republican strategy. Herewith, a very short history.* So? How can we help? Don M.: “Any thoughts as to when and where to support Democratic causes? I haven’t started to contribute even though I get dozens of requests. My budget is about $3,000.” → To me, it’s a little like investing: You could spend forever trying to pick the best stocks to beat the market . . . or no time at all and beat 90% of market players simply by investing in index funds. Similarly — with the worthiest of intentions — you could spend a tremendous amount of time trying to figure out how best to deploy $3,000 . . . or no time at all and be more effective than 90% of political donors simply by (a) investing EARLY each cycle (like: today); (b) avoiding primaries (it’s more important to beat Republicans than other Democrats); (c) avoiding contributions to individual candidates (because so much of that money goes to advertising that tends not to change minds) . . . favoring, instead, the kind of infrastructure that will benefit ALL progressive candidates in a given state by registering and getting folks to the polls. Not to say no one should give to candidates — most people do, and that surely won’t change just because you don’t. But the more leveraged (contrarian?) investment is in the overall effort to produce a huge Democratic turnout . . . including efforts to fight voter suppression. So if you want to be sure you did something smart — and save months agonizing over dozens of worthy choices — time better spent with the kids and money better deployed early — just join me in helping to fund the DNC. Like index funds, it’s not a very sexy choice. But also like index funds, it’s smarter than what most people do. Now, finally, the bar bet: Boy bets 10 euros his dad can’t pull a bill out from under a beer bottle without tipping it over, but that he can — 44 seconds. God, I love TikTok. https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/Little-French-Boy-10-Euro-Bet.mp4 (Thanks. Mel!) Have a great weekend. Have you filed your taxes? Need an extension? *The longer history: Before we even had political parties it had been established as self-evident in 1776 that all men are created equal . . . but agreed in 1789 that “all men” did not include women. Or enslaved men or the men on whose land we built the country or men who did not own property. We made a lot of progress on that until, with the John Roberts decision in 2013, we began to slip back.
From The Right And The Left May 13, 2021May 12, 2021 Liz Cheney’s six-minute case for truth and democracy. Two things Republicans once held dear. Ezra Klein’s thoughtful case against bipartisanship. Have a great day.