Bill Maher On Proportionality February 27, 2021 His whole show was sharp — hurray for Ezra Klein, Senator Jon Tester, and common sense — but I particularly commend these five minutes with Megyn Kelly. As much a I hope everyone reads Caste, so we have a common understanding of our shared history, I also hope we’ll keep from going off the deep end. Which is why those five minutes are must-watch, too. Common sense frequently resides closer to the center than to either extreme. Removing statues celebrating those who fought the United States Army to preserve slavery ? No brainer. But canceling Abraham Lincoln? That’s where context and proportionality come in. He held views he would not if he were alive today. (And who knows where he’d have been on net neutrality?) But should he not mainly be remembered for fighting to keep the country together and moving toward freedom? Removing statues of Stalin makes sense to me. (The Soviets did that.) But am I crazy for thinking it’s okay no one’s torn down Tolstoy? (His family owned serfs.) How about Ben Franklin? He owned slaves. Context and “proportionality” really matter. Al Franken should still be in the Senate. Some issues, it seems to me, are by now past discussion: Slavery is an abomination. Lynching is an abomination. The holocaust happened and was an abomination. Period. Case closed. That we have some people who disagree — who wear Camp Auschwitz sweat shirts as they storm the Capitol carrying Trump banners and Confederate Flags — is appalling and frightening and deeply sad. But tons of issues — like “reparations” (what to call them, whether we’ve already made them, how most fairly and effectively to make more if more remain to be made) — call for thoughtful discussion, with extreme views on either side welcome, but a modestly-left-of-center compromise usually the best path forward. (If you ask me; or a modestly right-of-center compromise if you ask some of my friends.) People shouldn’t be “canceled” on either side for engaging in such discussions — or for having expressed views in 2010 or 1995 or high school — they may well not hold today. BONUS Another issue past discussion, like slavery, one would hope, is the right to vote. Even Republican legislators know they must at least pretend to agree it should be easy for any adult citizen to vote and have that vote counted. And yet, for your consideration: Republicans roll out “tidal wave of voter suppression”: 253 restrictive bills in 43 states GOP is using Trump’s “big lie” to push a historic “contraction of voting rights” And: The GOP’s strategy for retaking power is uglier than you think If you’d like to fight back, click here. Early money is like yeast. Have a great weekend. Summer’s in the air!
Texas and Mars February 25, 2021February 24, 2021 But first . . . It’s a SURPRISE 94th birthday party Sunday . . . so, to emphasize that it’s a SURPRISE, I won’t say here whom it’s for. But the cause is just and at least some of the entertainers and politicians joining us are names you will know, so click here if you’re curious to see what this is about. Contributions start at $25 and are tax-deductible. (Hint: He risked his life to finance the Mississippi Freedom Summer. After two seconds, you would recognize one of his songs, smile broadly, and start to sing along.) I cede the rest of my time to Tom Friedman, because his latest column is so worth reading.
Caste Feedback February 24, 2021February 23, 2021 John M.: “I wasn’t sure if your request for reviews of Caste was specifically for readers of your blog, but Amazon has plenty of one-star reviews. The one by M. Steckbeck looks fairly intelligent and researched. I was thinking of buying Caste until reading those reviews. But if you are interested in the compromises that got us to this point, I did read and recommend These Truths.” → Thanks, John. Caste sports 273 one-star reviews from “verified purchasers” but 19,198 five-star reviews — 70 times as many. The very first of the one-stars – which 79 people found helpful – reads, in its entirety: Very disappointed. Put it down after the first chapter. Still trying to figure out why everyone is recommending reading this. He (or she) read the first of 31 chapters and on that basis knows all he needs to. The second one-star – that 98 people found helpful — says there can’t be any logic here if a black guy can be elected president and Oprah can be a billionaire, case closed. Nothing interesting to see here. (I did think the M. Steckbeck one-star review you reference was interesting — perhaps that’s why only 36 people found it helpful! — thanks for highlighting it.) If YOU read the book, I will welcome your further thoughts, for sure. I try never to miss Fareed Zakaria Sunday mornings on CNN. His latest take (6 minutes) discusses why Germany went fascist in the 1930s when England didn’t — and the lessons for us here, now.
What Time Is It On Mars? February 23, 2021February 22, 2021 A friend runs Seattle’s “telephone museum.” It’s amazing how far telephony’s come even in my short lifetime. Growing up, we had a “party-line.” Once in a while you’d lift the hand-set and hear someone else’s conversation in progress. When the line was clear, you’d dial four digits to reach someone in the same town. (Or maybe it was five, but definitely not seven, let alone ten.) A few years later, I was visiting my college roommate in Cincinnati where AT&T was testing its new “touch-tone” phones. You “dialed” by pressing buttons. Amazing! Today, I can call someone in Mongolia — a video call, no less — while driving down the highway . . . for free. There’s so much in telephone history that’s fun. Thank you, Peter Amstein, for working to preserve and curate all this. One small example? The way people used to set their clocks and watches by calling the phone company. Enjoy. Meanwhile, we’ve put men on the moon and robot-wandered around Mars. This 10-minute Martian tour is from the last mission, not the one that just landed, but not much has changed on Mars in the last ten years, so you might want to look around even before NASA’s latest shots become available. All we have to do now is figure out how to assure that every child born today — no matter where or in what circumstances — has at least a minimally decent life: Adequate food, water, shelter, clothing, education, electricity, internet, freedom, respect, love, and purpose. We have the technology and resources to provide all that; all we lack is the wisdom to get along with each other. My sense is that Jesus had better ideas on how to do this than, say, the Proud Boys. And that the leaders of Bhutan (who measure gross national happiness rather than gross national product) have better ideas than Putin, Duterte, Erdogan, Kim Jong-Un, or their friend and admirer, the disgraced former president. So read Caste. And Nick Hanauer’s “Pitchforks” letter. And Andrew Yang’s five-star -rated book on universal basic income. And, if you can, blow $100 or more to join DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, together with Senators Klobuchar and Booker and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, to save the world. Thanks!
National Margarita Day! February 22, 2021February 21, 2021 I’m so glad I finally gave in and read (well, listened to) Caste. Have you? It won’t bore you! Far from it. It won’t make you feel guilty! You may in fact join me in wishing that every high school senior would read it as a requirement of graduation — like the swim test we all had to pass back in the day. (Did you know that the Nazis looked to the U.S. system of apartheid to develop their own — but decided ours was too harsh? Did you know that, “from the 1930s to the 1960s” — long before any of us or our parents were alive, but still — “the major federal programs that guaranteed mortgages were for Whites-only,” as CBS reminded us Saturday morning? And now I understand why, asked which customers treat them worst, European tour guides unhesitatingly respond: Indians!) Caste relates to the cold civil war now raging. With fine people on both sides, to paraphrase the disgraced former president — but those on his side generally not realizing that theirs is also the side of Q-Anon (“in the weeks before the Capitol siege, Trump’s former national security adviser went on a far-right media blitz to promote wild conspiracy theories“), authoritarianism, the KKK and the neo-Nazis . . . even though most of them would be outraged at the implication. Sure, the disgraced former president kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside, and, sure, his dad was arrested at a KKK rally. But — they believe — he did great things for African Americans and for Israel, so it is we, the Satan-worshipping child eaters, who have it all wrong. Thus I have two requests, depending on who you are: > If you’re a Trump fan, read Caste and let me know what you think. No holds barred. > If you’re not, blow $100 or more to join DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, Senators Klobuchar and Booker, and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff — and help save the world. Have a great week. Today, as you doubtless know, is both George Washington’s birthday and National Margarita Day.
Is This Anything? February 19, 2021February 19, 2021 We’re in the midst of a cold civil war, in which one side believes the disgraced former president “won by a landslide” . . . when even his slavishly loyal former Vice President and Attorney General join everyone else in positions of authority — many of them Republicans and Trump appointees — in confirming he did not. It’s scary when good people are willing to risk their lives for a lie. Scarier still when some of them — not all — wear Camp Auschwitz shirts and carry Confederate flags. One of their generals — who told them, “If any race of people should not have guilt about slavery, it’s Caucasians” — was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom during the disgraced former president’s final State of the Union. Rolling Stone wasn’t so kind. (“How the right-wing talk radio icon corrupted the Republican Party, spread hate, racism, and lies, and laid the groundwork for Trumpism.”) Here’s Homeland Security’s assessment in 2009: . . . Threats from white supremacist and violent antigovernment groups during 2009 have been largely rhetorical and have not indicated plans to carry out violent acts. Nevertheless, the consequences of a prolonged economic downturn—including real estate foreclosures, unemployment, and an inability to obtain credit—could create a fertile recruiting environment for rightwing extremists and even result in confrontations between such groups and government authorities similar to those in the past. — Rightwing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters, and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda, but they have not yet turned to attack planning. . . . That changed after Trump called on them to fight like hell to save their country. We know the disgraced former president kept a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside; I wonder whether he has found time to read Caste. On the brighter side . . . 1. Is This Anything? is a compilation of bite-sized observations Jerry Seinfeld will read to you as you fall asleep. Set the Audible timer for 15 minutes and chances are, you’ll be smile-snoring after ten. (The melatonin gummy you ate an hour or two before helps.) The next night, just go back a few minutes to roughly where you dozed off and start again. 2. How To Avoid A Climate Disaster is Bill Gates’ just-published review of “the solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need.” Not mentioned, but a good one, from a British company called Clean Planet Energy: 3. Jet fuel — and more — from non-recyclable plastic! There’s so much to look forward to, if we can just learn to get along with each other! Have a great weekend.
Octopi, Part II February 17, 2021 Some of us bought CNXM at $13.35 a year ago and again at $7 — and at least one of you paid $5.55. We even got a fat dividend before CNXM was absorbed by CNX (.88 CNX share for each CNXM). I sold about half yesterday at $14. Yesterday’s post elicited the trailer for My Octopus Teacher. (Thanks, Michael!) Please tell me you won’t order grilled octopus anymore? As for squid — fried calamari — I was disappointed just now to discover that they’re smart, too. But do not despair! If you’ve ever had the eggplant parmesan at The Big T’s (not yet open, but just you wait), you know there are things every bit as delicious as octopus or squid (or dogs or cows or cats or horses or chimps or pigs, some of which, at least, it probably does not take much to persuade you not to eat). I’m still on vacation. https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/who-can-run-for-congress.mp4 CORRECTION George Ehlers: “As I’m sure others will also inform you, there were other presidents who did not attend their successors’ inaugurations.” → Right you are. I had thought I covered the exceptions by saying “willfully” eschewed (Woodrow Wilson wasn’t eschewing, he was just ailing), but should have added “since 1869.”
Octopi On Ecstasy, Arachnids On Acid February 17, 2021February 18, 2021 I’ve previously explained why I no longer eat octopus. Now I’m starting to think I should party with them. I would not party with spiders, but NASA has. (As I guess you can tell, I’m taking the day off.)
Two Really Important Things February 15, 2021February 16, 2021 THE FIRST REALLY IMPORTANT THING is that we now all, always, and in every instance label “the forty-fifth president” (as he wants to be known) “the disgraced former president.” Even in the eyes of Mitch McConnell — though not in the eyes of the guy wearing the Camp Auschwitz sweatshirt — he is disgraced. That would have been true even before January 6. But his gleefully watching Congress under attack? And doing nothing? Claiming it was Antifa doing the attacking??? Whether you’re liberal or conservative, if you believe in decency and integrity and sanity and democracy — as I have zero doubt you do — your children and grandchildren need to know Trump as the disgraced former president. Just as they know “Lincoln freed the slaves” and Kennedy “asked not” and Paul Revere was a patriot and Benedict Arnold was a traitor, they need to know Trump was an autocratic sociopath who disgraced his country. News media should introduce clips: > Disgraced former president Donald Trump [arrived in Georgia today to again endorse Q-Anon Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene in advance of the 2022 mid-terms]. > Disgraced former president Donald Trump [was snubbed last month in his attempt to visit Vladimir Putin, sources have learned]. > Disgraced former president Donald Trump [lost his bid to re-zone Mar-A-Lago as a private residence yesterday]. > Disgraced former president Donald Trump’s [secret self-pardon, first revealed upon his conviction last month, was ruled unconstitutional by a vote of 8-1 moments ago.]” You get the idea. Historians, likewise; but with room to be wordier: > The twice-impeached, disgraced 45th president . . . whom fellow Republicans prior to his election had publicly labeled a national disgrace, a con man, and a pathological liar who would be an utter disaster for the Republican party . . . was the first and only president in modern American history willfully to eschew his successor’s inauguration; the first and only sentenced to prison; the first and only to have his sentence commuted by his successor. (“Shame may or may not be punishment enough for my disgraced predecessor,” Biden told the nation, “but I want to make a larger point with this commutation. It was important for the America people to learn the truth, which is why the investigations and legal proceedings needed to take their course. But that’s behind us now. The truth is out. Now it is time to remind the world — and those of my predecessor’s supporters who chanted ‘lock her up’ or ‘lock him up’ — that America is not a country that locks up — or, for that matter, poisons — its political opponents. That’s Russia. That’s North Korea. My predecessor loved the leaders of those countries. I do not. It is simply not who we are.”) THE SECOND REALLY IMPORTANT THING is Nick Kristof’s column (thanks, Lev): Can Biden Save Americans Like My Old Pal Mike? . . . It is easy for Democrats to blame Republicans for failings like America’s lack of universal health care. But that lets too many of us off the hook. Mike was the kind of person that both political parties claim to speak up for, yet whom both parties betrayed over the decades. . . . So worth five minutes. [In case you missed Saturday’s post on PRKR and SCHOOLS (as I don’t usually post on Saturday), it’s here.] Have a great week.
Trump Wins 43-57; Selling and Buying PRKR; Schools February 14, 2021 SCHOOLS If you ask any expert how to reduce highway fatalities — a worthy goal, for sure — he or she will tell you to make cars safer, reduce speed limits, and ban non-essential driving. All true. But public policy generally involves trade-offs: The CDC’s Latest Demands Will Keep Millions of Kids out of School Unnecessarily . . . The science is clear: Kids — especially young children — can get and transmit covid-19, but they are less likely to do so than adults. Kids can die from the disease, but the risk of that happening is one in a million; they are about 10 times as likely to die by suicide. Teachers also have lower risk than other occupations and can be kept safe through adherence to universal precautions. The science is also clear that keeping children out of school is doing real harm: Loss in literacy progress. An exploding mental health crisis. Billions of missed meals. Women dropping out of the workforce. Hundreds of thousands of kids missing school. The effects are compounding daily. We’re all for stringent controls in schools. There are many that are both effective for adults and kids and don’t keep kids out of school, as some of these new ones from CDC will. At some point, we have to recognize the consequences of keeping millions out of school for a year and treat this like the national emergency it is. Worth reading the whole thing, especially if you disagree. TRUMP Many of you know the famous Harvard Crimson headline: Harvard Beats Yale 29-29. I was actually at that game and can tell you it left me feeling a lot better than yesterday’s vote in the Senate. So many Republican senators fit the mold of white jurors refusing to convict a clearly-guilty white murderer. (And yes: black jurors acquitted O.J., which was also wrong. But it’s hard to equate an act of jury nullification born of 12 generations of enslavement, debasement, lynching, and voter suppression, on the one hand, to an act of jury nullification born of whatever centuries of oppression Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, et al, feel they and their ancestors have suffered under the thumb of the black man.) These are the same senators — in spirit — who enabled fascist dictators in Germany and Italy nearly a century ago. (Have you read Caste?) We are a minority-rule country. Republicans have won the popular vote in only 1 of the last 8 elections; the good people of Wyoming have as many senators as the equally good, but 66 times as numerous, people of California — and two more than the equally numerous people of the District of Columbia. Even with Putin’s extraordinary help, and Comey’s extraordinary bad judgment, Trump lost in 2016 by 3 million votes. He considered that a landslide, as he insists his 2020 7-million-vote loss was a landslide; and he appointed a third of the Supreme Court. Two more of the nine seats were appointed by George W. Bush, who also lost the popular vote. (A sixth, whose wife is a right-wing lobbyist, was appointed by Bush 41.) Trump was impeached by a majority in the House, including Dick Cheney’s daughter, and lost the Senate vote by an even wider margin — 43 to 57. Another Trump landslide. (And a witch hunt, of course.) PRKR I sold 25,000 shares at $1.80 a few days ago. My thinking was: I had bought so MANY shares at a dime, 14 months ago, shouldn’t I take a little money off the table? If only to buy it back cheaper if it drops back? This is in my IRA, so there are no tax issues. I bought the shares back at $1.55 Friday. My thinking was: It will probably go back to $1.80 before the first trial (scheduled to begin May 3), so I could sell them again (wash/rinse/repeat, at $6,250 a cycle). But even if it does or not — and here we get into “famous last words” territory, so I stress, as always, “only with money you can truly afford to lose” — the risk/reward, whether at $1.55 or $1.80, excites me. The company-funded analysis I keep linking to shows a “sum of the parts” value of $10.64 a share. My first thought was to assume it’s way too high — and it may be. All the lawsuits might be lost or settled for much less than estimated. But there’s also the chance $10.64 is too low, for three reasons: (1) The $10.64 estimate is “probability weighted.” The PRKR analysts have assigned a 62% probability of success. That may be way high (though the last time a jury was faced with this case they found in PRKR’s favor) but in case they did win these cases in the amounts estimated, PRKR would not win 62% of the estimate, but 100% — which would raise the value from $10.64 to $17. (2) The estimates may be way high. But because they assume that no award will be made for accumulated interest and no punitive damages will be assessed (the judge has the right to triple the jury award if he thinks there was willful theft of intellectual property), maybe the estimates will turn out to be too low. The upside higher than $17. (3) Nothing in the analysis is included for the value of the company itself. Could the brains that came up with intellectual property possibly worth $17 a share have the potential to profit from further innovation? The most striking example: technology it has on the shelf that appears greatly to increase the efficiency of transmission to and from cell towers, one of the biggest drains on phone batteries. What could a technology that extends battery life (and that reduces both the tendency of phones to overheat and the cost of manufacturing) be worth over the years ahead? Could that add another $5 a share to what the company might rationally be worth today? Obviously, this is all pie in the sky for now. And I’ve allowed nothing for whatever taxes might be subtracted from settlements received — etc. But if the upside is over $20, and the downside is zero . . . or somewhat less than zero . . . I feel pretty great gambling at $1.55. CORRECTION Abe Lincoln would have been 212 this past Friday, not 211 as I first miscalculated. Two-twelve on two-twelve — what are the odds? And speaking of Friday’s post . . . Gray Chang: “I was given Steal this Book in 1973 for my 18th birthday and enjoyed reading about the scams and frauds (although I would not do them myself), like using taped washers in place of dimes in phone booths, or playing back tape-recorded sounds of coins being deposited to fool telephone operators. It reminds me now of Steve Wozniak’s autobiography, in which he describes his ‘blue box’ scam device for making long-distance phone calls without paying, and how he and Steve Jobs were robbed of one at gunpoint. Another time, when confronted by police, he talked his way out by claiming that the device was an electronic music maker. Also, how he impersonated Henry Kissinger and called the Pope. Another good book!”