Tobias The Terrible July 31, 2020July 30, 2020 That testing clip from yesterday really may solve the problem! But first . . . Michael Rutkaus: “Here is an old time radio program from the Damon Runyon Theater. They are usually interesting but I have not listened to this one yet. Titled: “Tobias The Terrible.” Since it has your name and is about the demi-monde of NYC in the 40’s, I thought you might like it.” → Anybody old enough to remember Guys And Dolls? (“When you see a guy / reach for stars in the sky / you can BET / that he’s doing it for some doll.”) It’s based on Damon Runyon stories. (Perhaps you know, “Sit down you’re rockin’ the boat?” or “Luck be a lady tonight?”) I was three when it opened on Broadway, eight when Marlon Brando and Frank Sinatra starred in the film. (“Take back your mink / and take back your poyles / what made you think / that I was one of those goyles?” No? How about, “I love you / a bushel and a peck?” Or “If I were a bell, I’d be ringing?”) The point is, to the limited extent there is one: I had never heard “Tobias the Terrible,” or any of the other 27-minute radio shows you’ll find connected to that link, despite having grown up listening to my parents enjoy these songs . . . . . . and then having acquired a copy of Guys and Dolls, the book, on which the musical and movie were based. Unlike this one, offered at $22,000, my copy has no dust jacket (waa-waaaa), but is signed by Damon Runyon. I bought it 18 years ago, and if someone paid me $22,000 for it, I’d have made a 12.8% pre-tax annual return. I also own Damon Runyon’s handwritten will and, bought from the same dealer — a 50-letter archive of letters to his son, bought at Christie’s that same year. “Priceless.” Michael knew none of this when he sent “Tobias the Terrible.” Needless to say, he made my day. And now . . . Kris McCormack: Thanks for the video on Covid testing. Although I had not spent much time thinking about the relative effectiveness of different kinds of Covid tests, I don’t need to be convinced that quick, inexpensive tests are a big part of what we need to get to a new and better normal. Not only would such tests allow us to open schools safely, even theaters, sports stadiums, and concert venues could be reopened. All those places already take time to check bags for weapons, bombs, and contraband/bottled water, so why not use waiting-in-line time to spit on a piece of paper and make (fairly) sure no one likely to be infectious mingles in the crowd. My dentist has been wanting such tests since the start of the pandemic for his staff and for every patient who comes into his office. Heck, at he $1-$2 price quoted in the video, even churches, bars and restaurants could screen everyone entering the premises. Inexpensive rapid testing is one major highway to some semblance of normal economic and social life.” Yes! If you missed it yesterday, watch that clip! Let me know if Kris and I are missing something. Otherwise, well . . . gee! Meanwhile: save our democracy. Sign up to be a poll worker. Or pass this on to your kids. Or to theirs?. Have a great weekend!
Testing Breakthrough? July 30, 2020 But first . . . Here is the head of the CDC in 90 seconds saying that the risk to school age kids is one in a million. Even that one is, of course, one too many. But as concerned as parents should be for themselves — and for school staff and grocery clerks and UPS drivers and anyone else who leaves the house — at least they should be comforted that the risk of losing their kids is “one in a million.” That’s good news no one, whatever his or her political leanings, should feel compelled to reject. And now . . . Here is the solution to testing! It’s worth understanding the whole thing (17 minutes) but the short form is: those “unreliable” tests that cost just a buck and take ten minutes — you spit onto a piece of paper and see if it turns a color — are reliable enough. No, they don’t catch really low viral loads . . . but those barely detectable loads are not high enough to infect others. They do reliably catch higher loads. So, suggests this clip, why not print hundreds of millions of them and have everyone self-test frequently. If someone (including kids) tests positive, he or she should stay home until he or she doesn’t. Watch the video and see what you think. Yesterday’s post, rethinking your 401(k), suggested that — except to the extent your contributions are matched by your employer — you should consider funding a Roth IRA instead. Bob offers this helpful reaction: I read with interest the article you linked to. For higher income earners it is almost always advantageous to take the tax-deduction immediately. Your tax rate is already high and is likely to be the same or lower in retirement. However, it was clear that the examples in the article were for “median income earners”, but even then there is debate regarding which type of plan to prioritize. There are two main arguments for choosing a traditional 401(k) over a Roth, especially among the early-retirement community. The first is that you have the opportunity after you retire (early) to convert your 401(k) dollars, tax-free, into a Roth, made possible by the large standard deduction (~$12K/$24K). This gives you the benefit of the tax deduction in the year you contribute and also never paying taxes on the gain because it is converted into a Roth tax-free. Hard to beat. The second argument is that even after you begin taking your Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs), your tax rate will most likely be lower than when you were working. Early-retirement blogger Go Curry Cracker describes both scenarios in detail. There are two other possible benefits a traditional plan has over a Roth: > Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA): This strategy allows the transfer of company stock “in-kind” from a 401(k) to a regular brokerage account, paying ordinary income tax only on the basis and not the gain (the “net unrealized appreciation”). With highly appreciated stock this can be a huge savings. Can only be done in a tax-deferred account (such as 401(k)) and not a tax-free (Roth). Here’s one article. Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD): With a traditional IRA you can make RMDs directly to a charity, effectively making them tax-free while still taking the standard deduction. You can convert your traditional 401(k) to a traditional IRA in order to take advantage. QCDs are not available with a Roth IRA. My local public library, where I am on the board, received $60,000 of QCDs in 2019 (I’m a big fan). Read it here. Of course the right answer is not to choose but to max out both your traditional and Roth investment options.
The End Of Democracy — And Rethinking Your 401K July 29, 2020July 28, 2020 Putin must be loving this: “The Birth of a Militia.” One more reason he was happy to support the NRA. Arm angry Americans with assault weapons; stoke their anger with fake tweets; sit back and enjoy the show. Brian Schwartz: “Why is it that the Guardian does such a great job of exposing this and it appears nowhere in the USA so far?” . . . Operating largely in secret, Bortac agents are trained for Swat-style raids on organized gangs smuggling immigrants or drugs across the US border. They have been deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Their frontline role in Portland was controversial because they have no apparent training in crowd control or the policing of protests. It built upon the Trump administration’s decision in February to dispatch Bortac into the US interior to work alongside Ice immigration officers in apprehending undocumented immigrants in Democratically-controlled “sanctuary cities”. Jenn Budd spent six years working as a senior border patrol agent until 2001 when she blew the whistle on a station chief who was himself smuggling drugs. She was offered promotion in exchange for her silence on the subject, but resigned in disgust. In Budd’s experience, Bortac agents are among “the most violent and racist in all law enforcement”. The quasi-military nature of the unit goes beyond their training, percolating into their state of mind. “They don’t exist within the realm of civilian law enforcement,” Budd said. “They view people they encounter in the military sense as enemy combatants, meaning they have virtually no rights.” “They don’t do normal vehicle stops. They will rip drivers from their seat, throw him against the side, put him in handcuffs – the same tactics you are now seeing Bortac agents use in Portland.” Under the rules of the border patrol they are allowed to operate within 100 miles of any US border, including those with Mexico and Canada as well as both coasts. As a result, their writ covers almost two-thirds of the population of the country – some 200 million people – and embraces nine of the nation’s 10 largest cities, many of which Trump is now targeting. . . If you have time, read the whole story. We really have to win in November and begin healing the divide. As a thought experiment only, not advocating a second trial, Fred Hiatt updates the things Trump could plausibly be impeached for — each far more nationally significant than lying to conceal an affair. Sorry. It’s just irresistible. Finally, it may be time to rethink your 401(k) contributions. The author makes a strong case that the advantages have disappeared for median-income taxpayers. There’s much to be said for having cash automatically sucked out of your paycheck so you’re not tempted to spend it on $2,000 of kite-surfing equipment you wind up never using once you find out how difficult kite-surfing truly is. But you may be able to set up an automatic transfer from your paycheck to a Vanguard or Fidelity Roth IRA, avoiding the 401(k) fees. Of course, if your employer matches your contribution, keep contributing it up to the amount of the match. It’s hard to beat free money. But see if your employer will direct the match to your Roth IRA instead, as some will. Better still.
Why — Like A Butterfly — You Matter July 28, 2020July 26, 2020 Ever feel powerless? Maybe you just haven’t set the pieces up right. This minute-long clip is akin to the butterfly’s flapping wings in Africa that cause a hurricane to hit Palm Beach. Except I have my doubts that’s actually possible (and no, frogs DO jump out of water when it gets too hot). But THIS you can see with your own eyes. BONUS: You can do anything. Or, well — this guy can. (Thanks, Joey!) https://andrewtobias.com/wp-content/uploads/How-does-he-do-that11-rh-1.mp4 And just when we were having fun . . . American Catastrophe Through German Eyes. . . . The president says he wants to protect law-abiding citizens. In 1933, after the Reichstag burned, Hitler issued the “Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State” as his means to seize power. . . Everyone who loves democracy needs to read the whole piece. I don’t mean to harp . . . but I do mean to harp. Everything hangs in the balance in a few weeks. If you’ve done all you can — THANK YOU! If you can do more, join George Clooney and President Obama today or Skiers and Snowboarders, featuring Jill Biden Wednesday. Or this one on climate Thursday with Al Gore. Or skip the Zooms and just click here.
What We’re Offering July 27, 2020July 26, 2020 Listening to this recent Obama/Biden conversation, I thought to myself: won’t it be great to have calm, experienced, decent, compassionate leadership again? Leadership that sets a positive example for our children? And for other world leaders? That’s what we’re offering. Not this. 8 Big Reasons Election Day 2020 Could Be a Disaster — “You may think you know how bad Nov. 3 will be. But all signs point to something far, far worse.” Sign up to be a poll worker! Join George Clooney and Barack Obama tomorrow! And then there’s this . . . . . . which could perhaps more substantively have been captioned, “Doesn’t read.” Or, “Paid someone to take his SATs.” Or, “Lies about his grades.” (That last link is a great read.)
We All Care . . . But Will We Pay 17 Cents More For A Burger? July 24, 2020July 24, 2020 To yesterday’s note on LGBT progress (Deviants No More) I added an update. Yes, Sports Illustrated is featuring a gorgeous trans woman in its swimsuit issue; but there’s also this: today, the world’s most valuable company is helmed by a proud gay man. (AAPL, at $1.6 trillion, is valued at $65 billion more than MSFT, $100 billion more than AMZN — and nearly 9 times as much as Exxon.) As noted yesterday, being gay wasn’t always so easy. In places like Russia and Mississippi, let alone Chechnya, it still isn’t. J Ebert: “Thank goodness my grandchildren never had to go through all that!” Amen. Imagine an entire world without racism, anti-Semitism, homophobia or ethnic strife – where everybody lived by the advice we all got from our mothers when we were five: “do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Or as Barack Obama puts it: “be kind and be useful.” We can land humans on the moon but not figure out how to be nice to each other? Come ON, people! Which leads me to today’s topic. Everyone — on both sides of the aisle — professes to care about other people. Most really do. “Personally,” wrote one such person in 2017, “I’m happy to pay an extra 4.3 percent for my burger if it means the person making it for me can afford to feed their own family. If you aren’t willing to fork over an extra 17 cents for a Big Mac, you’re a fundamentally different person than I am.” Take a minute to read her whole story and see whether you think she likely votes Democrat or Republican. She doesn’t say. Those who vote Republican — against the minimum wage, against health care for all, against higher taxes on billionheirs, against refinancing federal student debt, against environmental regulations, against universal background checks . . . will say that charity and free market forces are more effective at helping people than government redistribution and regulation. But as wonderful as charity is, it’s not without its own administrative costs . . . and as wonderful as the free market is, without regulation it produces misery and despair. (See: Charles Dickens’ London.) At the end of the day, that disagreement is what this election is about. That, and restoring the soul of the nation. Where, despite our differences, we’re all pretty much pulling for each other. Final thought: Japan has had fewer than 1,000 COVID deaths, Robin Masters tweeted earlier this month. “It is 12 times more densely populated than the US, and they have more elderly per capita than any other nation. They never did a complete lockdown. How did they do it? Virtually everyone wears a mask. So simple. We look ridiculous.” Spread the word, not the virus. Restore the soul of the nation. Have a great weekend.
Deviants No More July 23, 2020July 23, 2020 We’ve come such a long way since those days when, growing up, I knew — and everyone knew — that being homosexual was the worst thing in the world, even worse than being a communist. But I also knew it wasn’t my idea to have the feelings I had, and that I wasn’t actually doing anything wrong (not least because, until the age of 23, I wasn’t doing anything). And I remember how at 16 — having already kept this horrible secret for six years — I fantasized about the speech I would give to the world — which is to say my high school, which back the was my world. It would be 30 years before I did give that speech, and by then it wasn’t a particularly brave thing to do, nor the shocking surprise I had fantasized. The school had invited me. The world had already changed so much — and that was still way back in the last century, before all the progress that’s been made since. (You saw that Sports Illustrated is featuring a trans model in this month’s swimsuit issue?) (You saw that as of this morning, the most highly valued company in the world was Apple, run by an openly gay man?) Having lived through so much of it . . . having seen documentaries like Out of The Past and The Lavender Scare and the forthcoming Cured . . . and having actually known Frank Kameny and Barbara Gittings while they were alive . . . well, I figured I would buy a copy of Frank’s story, The Deviant’s War: The Homosexual vs. the United States Of America but that I wouldn’t actually read it. What could I learn that I didn’t already know? So much, as it turns out! It’s riveting. What a story. What courage! Thanks to which I can live an open, happy life. Buy the book? And if, being straight, you find it doesn’t hold your interest, pass it on to a gay friend? If you don’t have a gay friend — outside of Anderson Cooper or Ellen DeGeneres or Randy Rainbow — well . . . hmmm.
Four Choices And A Guarantee July 21, 2020July 22, 2020 Barack Obama on John Lewis. ” . . . thanks to him, we now all have our marching orders — to keep believing in the possibility of remaking this country we love until it lives up to its full promise.” And then there’s Obama successor. The “billionaire” arguably now worth $50 million less than he inherited. The “businessman” who lost $1 billion. The “taxpayer” whose returns couldn’t possibly still be under audit. The “king of debt” who bankrupted three casinos. The “genius” who lies about his grades and cheated on his SATs. The “Christian” who doesn’t go to church except this time. The “philanthropist” fined $2 million for his nonexistent good works. The “educator” fined $25 million for defrauding his students. The “innocent man” 1,027 former federal prosecutors agree obstructed justice to conceal his guilt. The “president” who takes no responsibility. The “deal maker” bested by China and North Korea. So we need to vote. Bob Stromberg: “As far as I know, this is the best list of actions individual voters can take to protect their right to vote. Please mention it on your blog.” And we need to contribute. FOUR CHOICES 1. Today – Jill Biden. 2. Today – Campaign Chair Steve Richetti. 3. Sunday – Pete Buttigieg, Billy Jean King, Andy Cohen, Jane Krakowski, Barbra Streisand and lots more. (Fifteen dollars!) 4. Skip the zooms but save the world. THE GUARANTEE There is ZERO RISK of our winning by too much. No way will you say to yourself, “why did I dig so deep when my country called?” We’ll either be hugely proud we did dig deep or – God forbid — quietly troubled for the rest of our lives that we didn’t.
The Sacrifice We’re (Needlessly?) Asking Kids To Make for Us July 18, 2020July 19, 2020 This widely shared letter you may have seen in Harpers argues that we must be open to reasoned debate for democracy to succeed. These days, you can lose your job merely for running an op-ed you and your readers don’t agree with. God forbid the other side, wrong though we’re sure they are, should be given an ear. (Do Progressives Have a Free Speech Problem? The illiberal left is a lot less threatening than the right. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.) Way too much, we’re divided between the red team and the blue team. Masks or no masks, hoax or no hoax . . . if the red team is for it, it must be bad. If the blue team is for it, the red team must be against it. Compromise? Tea Party Republicans long ago made that a dirty word. With that general preamble, let’s talk about the least-bad path forward on schools, and how poorly — I think — the discussion has been conducted. Which requires this specific preamble: We should never have been in this horrible place, It would not have happened if the CDC’s forward-deployed China team had not been neutered in 2018 . . . a dozen urgent warnings in the Presidential Daily Brief had not been ignored. But here’s where we are. So. Start with this: NBC Nightly News asked five pediatricians if they would let their own kids go back to school. As you will see — from where the clip starts, it will take you only 3 and a half minutes — all five gave an unequivocal yes. That doesn’t end the discussion, of course; but it seems to me it should open minds to having the discussion. One friend believes the discussion should be framed this way: We need to be very clear that healthy kids are not at risk with COVID. All the data shows that. School closings are not about protecting kids. Rather, this is a massive sacrifice we are asking kids to make to protect adults. Which leads to the question of how “effective” kids are at infecting adults — with evidence mounting that, no, actually, it almost always works the other way: kids, to the extent they get it, get it from adult family members. [UPDATE: But not so fast, warns an important new study reported in the Times as I was first posting this.] Here’s what the American Academy of Pediatrics has to say about opening schools: . . . With the above principles in mind, the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school. The importance of in-person learning is well-documented, and there is already evidence of the negative impacts on children because of school closures in the spring of 2020. Lengthy time away from school and associated interruption of supportive services often results in social isolation, making it difficult for schools to identify and address important learning deficits as well as child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation. This, in turn, places children and adolescents at considerable risk of morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. Beyond the educational impact and social impact of school closures, there has been substantial impact on food security and physical activity for children and families. . . . [t]he preponderance of evidence indicates that children and adolescents . . . may be less likely to become infected and to spread infection. Policies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 within schools must be balanced with the known harms to children, adolescents, families, and the community by keeping children at home. . . . That word — balanced — is what is generally lacking in the discussion. One of my pen pals, Stephen P., sends me stuff all the time to show me how heartless and reckless I’ve been suggesting we open schools for young healthy kids, teachers, and staff. E.g., this, from CNN: “Three Arizona teachers who shared a classroom got coronavirus. One of them died.” This is horrible, of course, and you may well have heard about it yourself, because it made every TV news cast I saw. The teacher who died was wonderful. A great human being with love and joy written all over her face, who loved teaching and whose death is heartbreaking. But only one of the many stories I saw about her mentioned that she was 61 “and also had asthma, diabetes and lupus.” Arguably, no such person should have been allowed out of the house in the time of COVID. (I say “arguably” because I’m not certain whether people at high risk, knowing the risk, should merely be strongly discouraged from taking the risk — that much for sure — or outright forbidden.) Stephen P. the next day, also from CNN: “New York Times: Internal CDC documents warn full reopening of schools is ‘highest risk’ for coronavirus spread. Duh.” To him, that headline said it all. (Hence his, “duh.”) Yet way at the very end, that story says: “The current guidelines, last updated in May, say the ‘lowest risk’ setting for Covid-19 spread is virtual-only learning options, while listing full-sized, in-person classes that lack social distancing as the ‘highest risk’ setting.” The CDC isn’t saying, “the highest-risk thing America can do right now is reopen the schools” as Stephen’s email implied. It’s simply saying that if you’re looking at the risk of kids getting infected in school, the lowest-risk option is to not let them go to school. The highest risk option is letting them go with no precautions of any kind. “Duh,” indeed. It’s like driving. There is a range of options. The lowest risk of traffic and pedestrian injury and death is not to allow it. The highest risk is to allow driving with no seat belts, no speed limits, no traffic lights, no airbags, no highway patrol, no limits on alcohol consumption, no licensing requirements. What we need to do is not scare each other with headlines about a truly wonderful Arizona teacher dying (not mentioning that she was 61 suffering from asthma, diabetes, and Lupus) . . . or a beautiful, innocent 11-year-old boy (not mentioning that out of 40 or 50 million school age kids, 14 have died of COVID, and that particular one had recently undergone a kidney transplant) . . . . . . but, rather, find a balance that protects people like those two precious people, while not keeping all 50 million kids and all young healthy teachers and school staff locked up at home. Because that has enormous tragic costs to kids, too. Stephen P. the day after that: the “not my child” video that makes the undisputed point that a mother’s love for her child is the most powerful, beautiful, important thing in the world. Yet — to me — doesn’t come remotely close to making the case that, as a result, 40 or 50 million healthy kids should be forced to stay home. Or that . . . at a time of national crisis . . . healthy young-ish teachers should be forced to stay home as well. (Is “teaching” not as “essential” a job as meatpacking? Especially when you consider that it’s cheaper, healthier, and better for the planet, not to eat meat?) The peculiar nature of this awful disease is that, with the rarest of exceptions, it spares young healthy people. If there were no COSTS to keeping everyone quarantined for a year or two or three, then of COURSE we should! Indeed, we should shut down the ENTIRE WORLD to save one life, if there were no cost to shutting down the entire world. But that kind of statement doesn’t strike me as useful in making the best of the awful situation Trump’s negligent sociopathy has put us in. Stephen P. yesterday: a cartoon of families at the beach, a dorsal fin in the distance, captioned: “It’s time to get kids back in the water. Only 1% of them will be eaten.” This would be so powerful if it were true! Oh. . . my . . . God!!!!!!!! Case closed! (Or, “duh” as Stephen would say.) But according to the CDC, since the pandemic began, regular old flu has killed three times as many children aged 5-14 in the U.S. as COVID (which has killed 14). Pneumonia, nine times as many. Kids like these fourteen — most or all with serious underlying health issues — should be protected at any reasonable cost. But keeping the other 40 million home is not, on balance, the the best way to do it. By forwarding a cartoon like that, I think Stephen was (unintentionally of course!) hurting tens of millions more kids than he was helping. A data point: In Sweden, zero kids have died of COVID, even with schools never having closed. I say again. Until there’s a vaccine and/or a cure, no school staff should be required to go back to work – they should be kept on the payroll to help with tele-teaching the kids whose parents are at risk, or to help with after-school tele-tutoring. Staff who are older or suffering from diabetes, asthma, etc., should be actively discouraged from coming back to work – perhaps even forbidden (though I’m not sure about that). It’s tempting to say, “If we can save one teacher’s life by shutting down all the world‘s the schools for a year, it will have been worth it.” But does that really make sense? If not, then it becomes a question of where one reasonably draws the line, as one tries to come up with the least-bad trade-offs. And never forget none of this had to happen. Any more than the war in Iraq had to happen. It matters who’s in charge. Competence, decency, and judgment matter.
Hope, Two Ways July 17, 2020 1. Nick Kristof offers hope. . . . The last time our economy was this troubled, Herbert Hoover’s failures led to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election with a mandate to revitalize the nation. The result was the New Deal, Social Security, rural electrification, government jobs programs and a 35-year burst of inclusive growth that built the modern middle class and arguably made the United States the richest and most powerful country in the history of the world. . . . 2. David Brooks imagines January 20, 2021. . . . Everybody says Biden is a moderate, and in intellectual and temperamental terms that is true. But he has found a way to craft an agenda that could reshape the American economy and the landscape of American politics in fundamental ways. . . . Have a great weekend.