TED: Living Forever — And Making Bail April 14, 2018 Wow. Let’s start with this — 80 minutes with Ray Kurzweil, who told us 10 years ago that, on average, by 2022 — though you could still be hit by a bus — adult life expectancy would be increasing by more than one year per year. So we’d be getting a little further from the end, not closer to it. I liked that very much. Friday, he told us he had been a little optimistic. “Longevity escape velocity,” he said, will be reached in 2029. But with autonomous vehicles, the chances of getting hit by a bus will nearly vanish. It pays to heed Kurzweil. “Of the 147 predictions he’s made since the early 1990s, 115 have proved to be correct and another 12 essentially correct (off by only a year or two)” — so 86% right. This piece explains how. Friday he said developed countries would all have adopted systems of Universal Basic Income by the early 2030s — and all countries would have it by the end of that decade — so that people’s main worry would not be finding jobs to meet their family’s basic needs, but finding meaning, to meet their psychic needs. We will expand out intelligence a billionfold by 2045 — Google will essentially be in your brain. And by then or shortly after we’ll have multiple bodies, and backup bodies. One thing Kurzweil’s Google team is working on that you can try right now is Talk To Books. Ask a question; TTB takes half a second (literally) to read 120,000 books and suggest answers, displaying the books they came from. It’s clunky: many of the searches you try will produce super dumb results. And they chose to read only 120,000 books instead of a million, because, Kurzweil told us, they knew people wouldn’t put up with waiting six seconds. But they’re just getting started. It will get better. I may have a little of this wrong (as may Kurzweil), but this was the gist. Half the talks we heard were unbelievably hopeful. Not only will there by cyborgs — one of them joined us at TED. And imagine: > Vaccines produced in days rather than six months. > “MRIs” that are small and cheap and emit no radiation. (The woman developing this shone red lights through her hands and then other light through a chicken breast to which she added a tumor — don’t ask me to explain, just hang in there for a decade until this stuff is widely available.) > Flying cars, of course. (You’ll Lyft to the nearest vertical-car hub; hop over to a hub near your destination; then Lyft or Uber to your destination. Target cost: forty bucks.) > And — per the woman running SpaceX for Elon Musk — rocket-based flights from New York to Shanghai in an hour. Within 10 years. Mars colonized not long afterward. Stephen Pinker gave his wonderfully upbeat perspective. We only think things are awful, because if it’s not bad, it doesn’t make the news. Even deaths due to lightning strikes have fallen dramatically! (Page 189.) Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project lunch was out of the ballpark (again). The impending disasters are real; but so is the progress, if we keep at it. Solar is rapidly becoming cheaper than coal. And there are so many other ways we can live smarter and save ourselves. (Eat less meat!) Here was his 2017 TED talk. We got a sobering (we still spew 110 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere everyday, using our atmosphere like a sewer) but inspiring update (China and others are beating their Paris Accord goals; wind power is blowing away past projections). It was scary to think how badly all this could go. For example: if even a few of the million “DNA printers” we saw that will eventually be installed by hospital bedsides are hijacked to print . . . oh, say, smallpox. Or if, more prosaically, nuclear war. After all, as Charles Mann noted, we are a “breakout species.” Which sounds good but “Here’s the thing about successful species: Eventually, they all wipe themselves out.” Imagine some bacterium put in the center of a petri dish filled with nutrient, instead of struggling to survive in topsoil. No predators; a sea of food. It multiplies like mad until it reaches the edge of the petri dish and then goes extinct, nothing left to eat, drowning in its own poop. There are so many ways this could go wrong. Exhibits A-F: Trump/Pruitt/Putin/McConnell/Nunez/ISIS . . . and on and on. But what a time to be alive. And what amazing people all over the planet looking for creative, just ways to solve our problems, large and small. Not to mention the guy we met who can hold his breath for five minutes and ten seconds as he dives 100 feet under water. Or Alex Honnold, who climbed El Capitan with no rope or tools. Or Chetna Sinha, the poor-but-determined illiterate Indian woman who went on to found a bank that now has 90,000 account holders. Here’s just one of the many talks I loved: The Bail Project: a plan to meaningfully increase justice while lowering taxpayer costs. On any given night, more than 450,000 people in the US are locked up simply because they can’t make bail. The sums in question are often around $500: easy for some to pay, impossible for others. Give this talk 14 minutes. You’ll never forget it. Have a great week.
If Only We Had Listened April 13, 2018 If only we had listened to Trump. Watch his candid appraisal of the Clintons here and here. One minute each. Spilt milk — but still. Watching “The Death of Stalin,” newly released in American theaters and banned in Russia — gripping and funny and wonderfully done — one is reminded that at the end of the day, countries are governed by people. Petty, selfish, small, easily frightened, easily misled, quick to take offense — and all the other things people are. (In the category of “people” I reluctantly include myself.) Most of us rise above our worst instincts most of the time and deserve a largely favorable assessment, as Trump assessed the Clintons in the two clips above. Yet given some power or faced with stress — well, “The Death of Stalin” takes place in 1953, but sharp-eyed viewers may see some relevance to today. Picture Trump and Mnuchin and Sara Huckabee Sanders and, now, John Bolton, in a movie of their own. Zinke riding in on his horse. Pruitt flying with 20 security guards to Morocco at taxpayer expense to help Carl Icahn make more money with liquefied natural gas (isn’t that what the EPA administrator is supposed to do)? And Pence! Shouldn’t he be in here someplace? Scaramucci? The President’s doctor? Stephen (“the President’s power will not be questioned”) Miller? Instead of Vasily and Svetlana, you’d have Ivanka, Eric, and Donald, Jr. If only we weren’t being forced to watch. One might think history is all about huge institutional forces. Nations versus nations. But how much of it is just individuals feeling disrespected and lashing out to get even? If Obama had not so publicly humiliated Trump at the White House correspondents’ dinner, would Trump even have run? If Hillary had not called out Putin as she did, would Trump have won? Would Putin have worked so hard to defeat her? Have a great weekend.
Can It Happen Here? April 11, 2018April 7, 2018 Following up on Madeleine Albright’s op-ed Sunday, worrying we are on the path to fascism, I offer this collection of essays — Can It Happen Here? — worrying the same thing. My friend Charles Kaiser’s review for the Guardian: The 17 thinkers who have contributed to this new collection of essays come down firmly on all sides of its central question . . . But whether you are an optimist, a pessimist or an idealist without illusions (John F. Kennedy’s self-reverential description), this book bombards you with all the reasons that anyone who treasures democracy needs to be terrified by the current state of our republic. It is, of course, the presence of Donald Trump in the White House that gives so many a sense of a state of emergency. But like many other recent books, this one argues that the Trump catastrophe is really just the culmination of 50 years of constitutional decay, rather than some sudden, unpredictable event. Yale law professor Jack Balkin calls Trump a demagogue out of central casting, “unruly, uncouth, mendacious, dishonest and cunning”, his presidency a “symptom of constitutional rot and … dysfunction”. Balkin argues that the rise of American oligarchy is central to the steady decline of democracy. He attributes the rise of oligarchy to changes in how political campaigns are financed (allowing gigantic amounts of dark money); basic changes in the structure of mass media which have “encouraged political distrust”; and the merger of “politics with entertainment”. “The central goal of the Republican agenda,” Balkin writes, “…is to deliver benefits to the donor class”. Republicans have “no scruples about acting in an entirely shameless manner, as long as the interests of its masters are well served”. Trump’s populism is just a shameless “Potemkin village”. Whether or not fascism is coming to America, it is undeniable that the internet has put more in place to make it possible than there has ever been before. Its infrastructure has enabled an almost complete (and barely protested) disappearance of privacy, and the near-disappearance of the very concept of truth. In a particularly well-focused essay about how Russia is contributing to the rise of fascism, former ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power – Sunstein’s wife – says the current “media environment” gives “propaganda and falsehoods” unprecedented power. Power provides extremely useful history on Russian efforts to interfere with US elections, which go back at least to 1984, when the KGB secretly campaigned against Ronald Reagan’s re-election. Just as they did during the 2016 election, the Russians spread all kinds of false stories, including the idea the CIA was plotting to give nuclear weapons to apartheid South Africa. Then Power pinpoints why the Russians were so much less effective back then: “During the Cold War the vast majority of Americans received their news … via mediated platforms.” This meant that what they read or saw on television “had to get by professional gatekeepers”. As far as the dissemination of news is concerned, that is the crucial difference between the pre and post-internet worlds: the gatekeepers have disappeared. Add to that the fact that bots accounted for 3.8 million tweets in the final weeks of the 2016 election and that 38 million false stories were shared on Facebook in the last three months of the campaign, and you get some idea of the damage the internet has inflicted on American democracy. Fox News routinely “amplified falsehoods” that discredited Hillary Clinton. All in all it’s no surprise, as Power points out, that “large numbers of Americans now view as opinion what were once seen as verifiable facts” – everything from global warming to the utility of vaccinating children. Several contributors focus on the potentially catastrophic reaction Trump could orchestrate in the wake of a large-scale terrorist attack. Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman argues that the prospect of a “draconian response” by Trump “should jolt serious Democrats and Republicans” into passing a new statutory framework that would explicitly reject the claim made by Jay Bybee and John Yoo for the Bush administration “that the commander in chief has the unilateral power to make never-ending war on the home front”. Unfortunately, with spineless Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, there is zero chance of such an initiative now. . . . Right now there are really only two things that can restore our faith in the rule of law and beat back lethal tendencies toward fascism. The first is a successful conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the alleged misdeeds of Trump and his dubious minions. The other is a new wave of energy from the progressive majority in the November elections, which could replace Trump’s Republican supplicants with Democrats who would actually impose serious limits on this White House. As New York University law professor Stephen Holmes puts it towards the end of the book, even if our system doesn’t “guarantee good governance”, a change in the team in power can still produce “a sense of buoyant expectancy” and “social energy throughout the community”. The main reason for optimism about such new energy did not exist when this book was printed: the teenaged Americans now fighting to bring sanity to the nation’s gun laws. These magnificent young people must become the vanguard of a mass movement to rescue America from the Republican donor class – and to return it, finally, to its senses. Amen. To help fuel that movement, click here.
Greetings From Vancouver April 10, 2018April 7, 2018 I’m at TED this week. You can save all that travel and expense and watch thousands of past TED talks for free . . . organized by topic, to help you choose (autism? asteroids? agriculture?) or by playlist (25 most popular of all time? talks by brilliants kids and teens?) So in case I miss a day or two, I leave you in brilliant hands. And will be looking for new talks worthy of your attention in the weeks to come. That said, I may not miss any days because — as we teeter between fascism-chaos-and-possible-extinction on the one hand and all-but-unimaginable-well-being on the other — there’s so much going on that I burst to share. So today I offer this segment on Scott Pruitt from last Friday’s Rachel Maddow . . . knowing full well that by the time you watch, he may have resigned or been fired. But there are two reasons I offer it, both big. BIG REASON NUMBER ONE. There’s so much here I didn’t know. I knew Pruitt was working hard to destroy the Environmental Protection Agency — a horrible Republican agenda for the air we breathe, the water we drink, and, yes, the habitable climate our species relies on. And I knew he was renting a DC condo for $50 a night (but only on the nights he and his daughter used it) from a lobbyist with matters before the EPA. But wait til you watch the rest. And the Carl Icahn connection. Astonishing. BIG REASON NUMBER TWO. How come I didn’t know this stuff before Friday? Why didn’t I know it just as a regular viewer of CBS, NBC, and ABC news? Our nation and many of our allies are under attack by the Russians. Faith in our fundamental institutions is under attack by our President: our free press, independent judiciary and intelligence community. Our norms of honesty and decency and dignity are being flouted and corroded. Aren’t these all things that require bold face exclamation marks of alarm? You hear them on MSNBC but not so much elsewhere. (From FOX the alarm you hear is that we are under attack by caravans of Mexican rapists.) Did you know how deep the ties run between the NRA and the Kremlin? I didn’t either. Watch it here. From the same Rachel Maddow show Friday. Or read the Rolling Stone report.
Fascism: Not The Path we Want To Take April 8, 2018April 8, 2018 Which goes without saying — no? And yet, as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright makes clear in the New York Times, and in her new book, Fascism: A Warning, we’re taking the first steps in that direction. On April 28, 1945 — 73 years ago — Italians hung the corpse of their former dictator Benito Mussolini upside down next to a gas station in Milan. Two days later, Adolf Hitler committed suicide in his bunker beneath the streets of war-ravaged Berlin. Fascism, it appeared, was dead. To guard against a recurrence, the survivors of war and the Holocaust joined forces to create the United Nations, forge global financial institutions and — through the Universal Declaration of Human Rights — strengthen the rule of law. In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down and the honor roll of elected governments swelled not only in Central Europe, but also Latin America, Africa and Asia. Almost everywhere, it seemed, dictators were out and democrats were in. Freedom was ascendant. Today, we are in a new era, testing whether the democratic banner can remain aloft amid terrorism, sectarian conflicts, vulnerable borders, rogue social media and the cynical schemes of ambitious men. The answer is not self-evident. We may be encouraged that most people in most countries still want to live freely and in peace, but there is no ignoring the storm clouds that have gathered. In fact, fascism — and the tendencies that lead toward fascism — pose a more serious threat now than at any time since the end of World War II. Warning signs include the relentless grab for more authority by governing parties in Hungary, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey — all United States allies. The raw anger that feeds fascism is evident across the Atlantic in the growth of nativist movements opposed to the idea of a united Europe, including in Germany, where the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the principal opposition party. The danger of despotism is on display in the Russia of Vladimir Putin — invader of Ukraine, meddler in foreign democracies, accused political assassin, brazen liar and proud son of the K.G.B. Putin has just been re-elected to a new six-year term, while in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, a ruthless ideologue, is poised to triumph in sham balloting next month. In China, Xi Jinping has persuaded a docile National People’s Congress to lift the constitutional limit on his tenure in power. Around the Mediterranean, the once bright promise of the Arab Spring has been betrayed by autocratic leaders, such as Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt (also just re-elected), who use security to justify the jailing of reporters and political opponents. Thanks to allies in Moscow and Tehran, the tyrant Bashar al-Assad retains his stranglehold over much of Syria. In Africa, the presidents who serve longest are often the most corrupt, multiplying the harm they inflict with each passing year. Meanwhile, the possibility that fascism will be accorded a fresh chance to strut around the world stage is enhanced by the volatile presidency of Donald Trump. If freedom is to prevail over the many challenges to it, American leadership is urgently required. This was among the indelible lessons of the 20th century. But by what he has said, done and failed to do, Mr. Trump has steadily diminished America’s positive clout in global councils. Instead of mobilizing international coalitions to take on world problems, he touts the doctrine of “every nation for itself” and has led America into isolated positions on trade, climate change and Middle East peace. Instead of engaging in creative diplomacy, he has insulted United States neighbors and allies, walked away from key international agreements, mocked multilateral organizations and stripped the State Department of its resources and role. Instead of standing up for the values of a free society, Mr. Trump, with his oft-vented scorn for democracy’s building blocks, has strengthened the hands of dictators. No longer need they fear United States criticism regarding human rights or civil liberties. On the contrary, they can and do point to Mr. Trump’s own words to justify their repressive actions. At one time or another, Mr. Trump has attacked the judiciary, ridiculed the media, defended torture, condoned police brutality, urged supporters to rough up hecklers and — jokingly or not — equated mere policy disagreements with treason. He tried to undermine faith in America’s electoral process through a bogus advisory commission on voter integrity. He routinely vilifies federal law enforcement institutions. He libels immigrants and the countries from which they come. His words are so often at odds with the truth that they can appear ignorant, yet are in fact calculated to exacerbate religious, social and racial divisions. Overseas, rather than stand up to bullies, Mr. Trump appears to like bullies, and they are delighted to have him represent the American brand. If one were to draft a script chronicling fascism’s resurrection, the abdication of America’s moral leadership would make a credible first scene. Equally alarming is the chance that Mr. Trump will set in motion events that neither he nor anyone else can control. His policy toward North Korea changes by the day and might quickly return to saber-rattling should Pyongyang prove stubborn before or during talks. His threat to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement could unravel a pact that has made the world safer and could undermine America’s reputation for trustworthiness at a critical moment. His support of protectionist tariffs invites retaliation from major trading partners — creating unnecessary conflicts and putting at risk millions of export-dependent jobs. The recent purge of his national security team raises new questions about the quality of advice he will receive. John Bolton starts work in the White House on Monday. What is to be done? First, defend the truth. A free press, for example, is not the enemy of the American people; it is the protector of the American people. Second, we must reinforce the principle that no one, not even the president, is above the law. Third, we should each do our part to energize the democratic process by registering new voters, listening respectfully to those with whom we disagree, knocking on doors for favored candidates, and ignoring the cynical counsel: “There’s nothing to be done.” I’m 80 years old, but I can still be inspired when I see young people coming together to demand the right to study without having to wear a flak jacket. We should also reflect on the definition of greatness. Can a nation merit that label by aligning itself with dictators and autocrats, ignoring human rights, declaring open season on the environment, and disdaining the use of diplomacy at a time when virtually every serious problem requires international cooperation? To me, greatness goes a little deeper than how much marble we put in our hotel lobbies and whether we have a Soviet-style military parade. America at its best is a place where people from a multitude of backgrounds work together to safeguard the rights and enrich the lives of all. That’s the example we have always aspired to set and the model people around the world hunger to see. And no politician, not even one in the Oval Office, should be allowed to tarnish that dream. Organizing a huge midterm turn-out is the first step toward reversing course. In my view — $100 million of on-the-ground organizing will do more to produce that huge turn-out than $1 billion in TV ads. Only about 37% of our voters (or theirs) voted in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections. Imagine if Democrats could get that up to (say) even just 45%. If we all pitch in, I think we will . . . and, thus, despite all the gerrymandering, and despite the good people of Wyoming having as many senators as the equally good but 65-fold more numerous people of California, flip Congress and many state legislative chambers blue. The “organizing snowball” that the DNC facilitates, directly and through its support of the 50 state parties . . . hiring organizers now to recruit and train volunteers to recruit and train more volunteers to register voters this summer and drive voters to the polls this fall (sometimes literally drive them, if they need a lift) . . . grows biggest if it starts rolling from near the top of the hill (April) rather than the bottom (October). That’s how snowballs work. Click here to get ours rolling. (Or me-mail me directly if you’re slightly vaguely “well off.” Or have questions.)
Fascism: Not The Path We Want To Take April 8, 2018April 8, 2018 Which goes without saying — no? And yet, as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright makes clear in the New York Times, and in her new book, Fascism: A Warning, we’re taking the first steps in that direction. On April 28, 1945 — 73 years ago — Italians hung the corpse of their former dictator Benito Mussolini upside down next to a gas station in Milan. Two days later, Adolf Hitler committed suicide in his bunker beneath the streets of war-ravaged Berlin. Fascism, it appeared, was dead. To guard against a recurrence, the survivors of war and the Holocaust joined forces to create the United Nations, forge global financial institutions and — through the Universal Declaration of Human Rights — strengthen the rule of law. In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down and the honor roll of elected governments swelled not only in Central Europe, but also Latin America, Africa and Asia. Almost everywhere, it seemed, dictators were out and democrats were in. Freedom was ascendant. Today, we are in a new era, testing whether the democratic banner can remain aloft amid terrorism, sectarian conflicts, vulnerable borders, rogue social media and the cynical schemes of ambitious men. The answer is not self-evident. We may be encouraged that most people in most countries still want to live freely and in peace, but there is no ignoring the storm clouds that have gathered. In fact, fascism — and the tendencies that lead toward fascism — pose a more serious threat now than at any time since the end of World War II. Warning signs include the relentless grab for more authority by governing parties in Hungary, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey — all United States allies. The raw anger that feeds fascism is evident across the Atlantic in the growth of nativist movements opposed to the idea of a united Europe, including in Germany, where the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the principal opposition party. The danger of despotism is on display in the Russia of Vladimir Putin — invader of Ukraine, meddler in foreign democracies, accused political assassin, brazen liar and proud son of the K.G.B. Putin has just been re-elected to a new six-year term, while in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, a ruthless ideologue, is poised to triumph in sham balloting next month. In China, Xi Jinping has persuaded a docile National People’s Congress to lift the constitutional limit on his tenure in power. Around the Mediterranean, the once bright promise of the Arab Spring has been betrayed by autocratic leaders, such as Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt (also just re-elected), who use security to justify the jailing of reporters and political opponents. Thanks to allies in Moscow and Tehran, the tyrant Bashar al-Assad retains his stranglehold over much of Syria. In Africa, the presidents who serve longest are often the most corrupt, multiplying the harm they inflict with each passing year. Meanwhile, the possibility that fascism will be accorded a fresh chance to strut around the world stage is enhanced by the volatile presidency of Donald Trump. If freedom is to prevail over the many challenges to it, American leadership is urgently required. This was among the indelible lessons of the 20th century. But by what he has said, done and failed to do, Mr. Trump has steadily diminished America’s positive clout in global councils. Instead of mobilizing international coalitions to take on world problems, he touts the doctrine of “every nation for itself” and has led America into isolated positions on trade, climate change and Middle East peace. Instead of engaging in creative diplomacy, he has insulted United States neighbors and allies, walked away from key international agreements, mocked multilateral organizations and stripped the State Department of its resources and role. Instead of standing up for the values of a free society, Mr. Trump, with his oft-vented scorn for democracy’s building blocks, has strengthened the hands of dictators. No longer need they fear United States criticism regarding human rights or civil liberties. On the contrary, they can and do point to Mr. Trump’s own words to justify their repressive actions. At one time or another, Mr. Trump has attacked the judiciary, ridiculed the media, defended torture, condoned police brutality, urged supporters to rough up hecklers and — jokingly or not — equated mere policy disagreements with treason. He tried to undermine faith in America’s electoral process through a bogus advisory commission on voter integrity. He routinely vilifies federal law enforcement institutions. He libels immigrants and the countries from which they come. His words are so often at odds with the truth that they can appear ignorant, yet are in fact calculated to exacerbate religious, social and racial divisions. Overseas, rather than stand up to bullies, Mr. Trump appears to like bullies, and they are delighted to have him represent the American brand. If one were to draft a script chronicling fascism’s resurrection, the abdication of America’s moral leadership would make a credible first scene. Equally alarming is the chance that Mr. Trump will set in motion events that neither he nor anyone else can control. His policy toward North Korea changes by the day and might quickly return to saber-rattling should Pyongyang prove stubborn before or during talks. His threat to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement could unravel a pact that has made the world safer and could undermine America’s reputation for trustworthiness at a critical moment. His support of protectionist tariffs invites retaliation from major trading partners — creating unnecessary conflicts and putting at risk millions of export-dependent jobs. The recent purge of his national security team raises new questions about the quality of advice he will receive. John Bolton starts work in the White House on Monday. What is to be done? First, defend the truth. A free press, for example, is not the enemy of the American people; it is the protector of the American people. Second, we must reinforce the principle that no one, not even the president, is above the law. Third, we should each do our part to energize the democratic process by registering new voters, listening respectfully to those with whom we disagree, knocking on doors for favored candidates, and ignoring the cynical counsel: “There’s nothing to be done.” I’m 80 years old, but I can still be inspired when I see young people coming together to demand the right to study without having to wear a flak jacket. We should also reflect on the definition of greatness. Can a nation merit that label by aligning itself with dictators and autocrats, ignoring human rights, declaring open season on the environment, and disdaining the use of diplomacy at a time when virtually every serious problem requires international cooperation? To me, greatness goes a little deeper than how much marble we put in our hotel lobbies and whether we have a Soviet-style military parade. America at its best is a place where people from a multitude of backgrounds work together to safeguard the rights and enrich the lives of all. That’s the example we have always aspired to set and the model people around the world hunger to see. And no politician, not even one in the Oval Office, should be allowed to tarnish that dream. Organizing a huge midterm turn-out is the first step toward reversing course. In my view — $100 million of on-the-ground organizing will do more to produce that huge turn-out than $1 billion in TV ads. Only about 37% of our voters (or theirs) voted in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections. Imagine if Democrats could get that up to (say) even just 45%. If we all pitch in, I think we will . . . and, thus, despite all the gerrymandering, and despite the good people of Wyoming having as many senators as the equally good but 65-fold more numerous people of California, flip Congress and many state legislative chambers blue. The “organizing snowball” that the DNC facilitates, directly and through its support of the 50 state parties . . . hiring organizers now to recruit and train volunteers to recruit and train more volunteers to register voters this summer and drive voters to the polls this fall (sometimes literally drive them, if they need a lift) . . . grows biggest if it starts rolling from near the top of the hill (April) rather than the bottom (October). That’s how snowballs work. Click here to get ours rolling. (Or me-mail me directly if you’re slightly vaguely “well off.” Or have questions.)
Fun With Compound Interest April 6, 2018April 6, 2018 But first: WheelTug just signed its 24th airline, Kenya, adding 32 jets to the 1,046 already in queue. Per their press release: “WheelTug will be an excellent complement to our growing fleet and ultra-modern hub in Nairobi. It is the next stage in aviation innovation and vital for our operations.” I know, I know: but because you bought BOREF only with money you could truly afford to lose (you promised!), I’d like to note that our prospects just seem to get better and better, even though the stock — valuing the entire company at $25 million — bears no relationship (in my view) to the opportunity. And it’s not just airlines and non-tech types like me who are taking this seriously. The company’s partners include Stirling Dynamics, which features WheelTug on its home screen with a link to the project description. None of this assures success, but . . . well, it remains the best lottery ticket I’ve ever seen. Wouldn’t it be fun if we it worked out? And now: It’s the oldest story in the world, but in case you have a child just reaching the age to learn it . . . compound interest is the basis of all things finance. “Those who understand compound interest, earn it. Those who do not, pay it.” This site retells the wonderful story of Ben Franklin leaving 1,000 pounds each to Philadelphia and Boston, and the enormous good it did over the 200-year span of his bequest. Enjoy. When I used to get paid absurdly well to talk about this stuff, waving my arms with youthful exuberance, one of my favorite riffs was that . . . “If you had invested just one penny — forget a dollar — one penny! — at just two percent interest — forget five per cent or ten percent — two percent! — [slight pause, as it sank in] — the day Christ was born — [longer pause, for laughter] — how much do you think you would have today? “Anybody? “Anybody? [no one ever ventured a guess] “If you had guessed one point two five TRILLION [pause for effect] — DOLLARS! not pennies!!! — [longer pause to allow audience minds to be blown, my own arms suspended, as if holding an invisible watermelon in front of my face . . . then slowly drop left hand] — you would be LOW [right index finger jabs triumphantly on the word “low”] by a factor of a thousand times. [Satisfied silence. I have made my point.] “Lesson number one: slow but steady does indeed win the race. Fund that IRA! Lesson number two: no wonder the Catholic church has so much money. (And more power to it, may I be quick to add.)” “Of course,” I would sometimes continue, “this illustration may have little practical application. Few if any of us are going to live two thousand years. It was Homer (not Homer Homer; Sidney Homer, author of A History of Interest Rates) who noted that, when applying these lessons to your own life, ‘the first 400 years are the hardest.'” Yet the lessons apply nonetheless. Thirty years having passed since I last held the invisible watermelon in front of my face, that original penny, continuing to grow at 2% a year, would by now have added yet another quadrillion dollars to your fortune. Before taxes and inflation. So you’d probably be broke. Have a great weekend.
24 Hours In A New York Diner April 5, 2018March 31, 2018 Nitty. Gritty. And wonderful. If you want a break from politics and have time to just kick back (and love New York), read it here. (Thanks, Brian!)
Everybody Lies April 4, 2018March 31, 2018 Not like Jon Lovitz or Donald Trump, to be sure. We are not all pathological liars.* But Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is an awesome read or listen (five hours at 1.5X speed). We lie to pollsters, we lie to our spouses, to our teachers and friends and neighbors — to ourselves — but not so much to Google. And page after page, this produces insights. About sex. (Warning: it gets kinky and graphic.) About prejudice. (It’s deeper than we like to think.) About politics. (People searching for “Trump-Clinton debate” lean differently, it turns out, from those who search for “Clinton-Trump debate.” If the Clinton team had seen how this varied from their polling results in states like Pennsylvania, they might have shifted resources and won.) About sex. (There’s a lot in this book about sex. And I’m not repeating that just to get you to read it.) And it’s not all Google-based. You will learn how big data helped a guy crack the horse-racing code. He literally found the secret to what makes horses winners — and made a fortune. Not unlike the way Billy Beane cracked the ball-player code. (There’s a lot in the book about baseball.) It’s smart and funny and topical. Enjoy. *And neither is Jon Lovitz. He just plays one on TV.
Great Inner-City High Schools April 3, 2018March 31, 2018 Low-income kids go off to college at twice the rate they did 40 years ago; but — stubbornly — still only about only about 1 in 5 graduates with a four-year degree. We can do better, says Success Academy founder and CEO Eva Moskowitz. Having already achieved astounding results in the lower grades . . . If Success Academy were its own school district, it would rank No. 1 in New York state, outperforming the second highest by 10 percentage points in math and 3 percentage points in ELA . . . all the more significant, given that 73% of Success Academy’s testing students are economically disadvantaged. . . . Success now hopes its high schools will become a model as well. Eva writes: Success Academy has spent the past four years intensively focused on creating a rigorous and innovative high school model that fully prepares graduates from all backgrounds to thrive and triumph in college and beyond. We are proud to share this virtual experience of our high schools, which documents our approach and values, and the core components that we feel are essential to achieving excellence with a nonselective student body. You can enter classrooms, meet teachers and scholars, and explore the sophisticated academics, diverse extracurricular and summer programs, and robust advising and college preparatory programs that are designed to propel students to and through selective colleges. Closing the college completion gap is a crucial step in achieving equity for poor children and ensuring the future strength of our country. We hope our virtual high school will inspire and support educators and public officials across our nation as they work toward this goal, and ultimately advance the national movement for educational justice. Twenty-five thousand visitors from 47 states and 80 countries have already taken virtual tours of the Success lower grades. Now they can tour the high schools. The goal is not to denigrate the many already-wonderful high schools around America; let alone to denigrate the enormous numbers of wonderful teachers — or to threaten their unions. But if schools that are not so wonderful, and students who are struggling, could do better — and at no greater taxpayer expense — don’t we owe it to our kids to take a look? *Success got a big boost from wealthy donors to help develop and scale its model. I’m proud to have contributed to the first school; there are now 46. But they operate on no more taxpayer funds, per capita, than New York spends to fund its traditional public schools.