340 Rabbis Walk Into A Bar . . . August 18, 2015August 17, 2015 Yesterday’s post favoring the Iran deal concluded with my doubting I’d persuade my correspondent. But guess what? My correspondent did change his mind! When does that ever happen? A little of our exchange: CORRESPONDENT: “As the world stood by in silence when Hitler began his invasions and exterminations, so simple logic argues the Iranian nuke bomb is a fait accompli in one to 15 years. However, unlike the other nuclear-armed countries, Iran is run by fanatics that are happy to cleanse the world of infidels, starting with Israel. They shout it out. Death to America! Death to Israel! If the sane world had been able to understand what was going on before their eyes, Hitler could have been killed BEFORE tens of millions of lives were lost. NOW with 20-20 hindsight and hundreds of years of history to review we see what horror naive inattention causes and still we ignore Iran. This is like a nightmare when you know the ending but are helpless to change the outcome. Knowing what we have learned from the past, Iran must be stopped. Now, while they only have conventional weapons. We have the means, we have the way, we lack the resolve.” ME: “You are so right! Iran must sign the non-proliferation treaty and be held to it. Imagine if the world had brought Hitler to the table before he invaded anyone and worked out a deal under which he had to get rid of two-thirds of his heavy weaponry – the most advanced two-thirds at that – and 98% of his ammunition. And agree to 24/7 surveillance of all his known arms factories and arsenals — his entire military supply chain. Would you have rejected that deal and instead tried to invade and occupy Germany? Turns out, as you’ll read tomorrow [now, yesterday], a great many smart people disagree with you.” To which long list I then appended this just-released letter from 340 rabbis urging Congress to support the deal. CORRESPONDENT: “Your list of those supporting the deal is impressive. In light of their expertise, I have been swayed to agree that it’s worth a try — Congress should approve the deal — although it is literally dealing with the devil.” To which I replied that my hat was off to him for his open mind. How many people these days have one? Call your senators and representative to urge them to approve this deal! And perhaps share yesterday’s post (now updated to include those 340 rabbis) with your list? Based on a scientific sample of one — my correspondent — it could actually change minds.
Must-Watch Bill Maher Clip August 17, 2015August 17, 2015 One of you writes of my position on the Iran deal (I’m strongly for it): “Is it comforting to know you’re on the same team with Al (Tawana Brawley) Sharpton?” A word or two about Al Sharpton in a minute, but first . . . Here’s a rundown of who’s on which side. (Thank you, The Atlantic.) The GOP of course is against it — Obama did it. Indeed, they were all but unanimously against it before it was struck; before they knew its terms; and even as 47 of them wrote the Ayatollah basically warning him him not to make it. But five former US ambassadors to Israel, from both Republican and Democratic administrations are for it . . . writing that, “the consequences of rejection are grave” . . . . . . as are a former head of Mossad, a former head of Shin Bet (read that one here) . . . . . . more than 100 other former US ambassadors from both political parties (here) . . . . . . more than 60 “national security leaders” like former National Security Advisor to Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, former Republican Senator Nancy Kassenbaum (daughter of 1936 Republican Presidential nominee Alf Landon and widow of former Republican Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker — remember moderate Republicans?), former Senator Don Riegle (whose first three terms in the House, and whose mayoralty before that, were as a Republican, but who became a Democrat over differences with the Republicans over civil rights and the Viet Nam war), former Senate Armed Services Committee Chairs Carl Levin and Republican John Warner (jointly penning, “Why Hawks Should Also Back the Iran Deal“) . . . . . . Hans Blix, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, “who a dozen years ago tried to avert the disaster in Iraq” . . . . . . and more. (If you read Hebrew, try this, by Uzi Even, one of Israel’s top nuclear experts. “Israeli Opposition to Nuclear Agreement — A Logical Fallacy.”) [UPDATE: And this just in — “340 Rabbis Urge Congress to Support Nuclear Deal with Iran.”] But best of all was Colin Powell’s former Chief of Staff Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson with Bill Maher this weekend. I’m bold-facing because you have to watch. “The opposition to this deal is bizarre! It eliminates none of the other alternatves. There are four: do nothing; the deal; bomb; or invade. If you do the deal, the other three are still available. So what could possibly be the opposition?” Yes, there’s more to it than that one sentence, much of which you’ll find covered in the clip; the rest of which, in the President’s speech or extensive press conference. Yes, Chuck Schumer — in most things a wonderful senator — is against it. But he is also the protector of Wall Street’s outrageous “carried interest” tax break, of great benefit some of his most influential backers. So while I’m eager to believe his argument independent of any pressure he’s felt, I agree with Fareed Zakaria, that it is illogical. And yes, we should all respect the hugely legitimate, visceral concerns of those Israelis who oppose the deal — and we should share the almost unanimous recognition that we cannot simply “trust” Iran, whose Supreme Leader is a nightmare (as religious fanatics of all stripes, ironically, so often tend to be). But, as Carl Levin and John Warner argue: even hawks should back the deal. (And Al Sharpton? Though my correspondent may never forgive him for his behavior nearly 30-odd years ago, the Rev is a very bright man who’s come a long way, even if he’ll never be everyone’s cup of tea. Now that we have cell phone and dash-cam videos, even guys like my correspondent must be noticing that sometimes 12-year-old black kids with toy guns are needlessly murdered in two seconds by over-anxious, incompetent white cops, etc. Tawana Brawley was a bogus example — but do many today still believe blacks and whites have been treated with equal justice over the years Al Sharpton has been crying foul?) I asked my corespondent if any of this sway swayed him. I assume not, but live in hope. Watch Bill Maher! It would be a huge mistake — for America, Israel, and the world — if Congress nixed this deal. Send this to your list and ask them to send it to their list? Thoughdifferent situations, it could be as important we not screw this up as it was that we not invade Iraq.
Friday Potpourri August 14, 2015August 13, 2015 ZERO INTEREST FOR 15 MONTHS Chase generally gets good JD Power ratings as a decent credit card provider to deal with . . . and currently offers a card with 0% interest for the first 15 months and no transfer fee if, within 60 days, you use the card to pay off your balances on other cards. (Normally, the catch in those 0% offers you see all the time is a 3% transfer fee.) It’s all described here, and worth a look if you, or someone you love, needs help paying off high-interest credit card balances. THE IRAN DEAL I read Senator Schumer’s statement and find it not nearly as persuasive as the President’s. Or (in small part) John Kerry’s. (And was pleased to see this headline: “Head of Group Opposing Iran Accord Quits Post Saying He Backs Deal.”) We really need to embrace this deal — and not trust Iran for a minute. (Says the subject of that headline, Gary Samore: “We will have bought a couple of years, and if Iran cheats or reneges we will be in an even better position to double down on sanctions or, if necessary, use military force. If I knew for certain that in five years they would cheat or renege, I’d still take the deal.”) AROUND THE WORLD IN . . . HOW MANY DAYS? Richard Factor: “Re Monday’s post and ‘running out of countries,’ Gunnar Garfors is a piker, country-wise (198: How I ran Out of Countries). We ham radio operators run out of countries at 340, and one popular goal is to communicate with all of them. Here’s a list. It’s quite the challenge, since some of them are difficult, expensive, or dangerous to get to, some of them barely exist, and others, such as North Korea, aren’t unduly keen on their citizens having radio transmitters. We enjoy exchanging colorful ‘QSL cards’ to confirm the contacts. Not exactly as memorable as visiting them all, but a lot less expensive, and a boon for those who enjoy yelling out Jeopardy answers.” ☞ Hmmm. (Hamm?) That’s a lotta countries. “Siri: how many countries are there in the world?” She says: 206, citing Aricle 1 of the Montevideo Convention of 1933, in which a state must have (1) a permanent population; (2) a defined territory; (3) a government; (4) a capacity to enter into relations with other countries.” Which is why “countries” on Richard’s list of 340 like Scarborough Reef, especially at high tide, and the Crozet Islands, population 30 on the best of days, don’t make it.
Vilifying Hillary; Suppressing The Vote August 13, 2015August 12, 2015 The G.O.P. strategy to win back the White House, and thus control all three branches of government, is to vilify the front-runner, as described here, and to suppress the vote, as described here (“Inside the 50 Year Campaign to Roll Back the Voting Rights Act”) and here (“Nine Years Ago, Republicans Favored Voting Rights. What Happened?”). Makes sense from their point of view, but I hope they don’t succeed.
Bad Trip Leads To Saving Large Swaths of the Amazon August 12, 2015August 11, 2015 MY FRIEND LOST HIS PHONE And it was out of juice, so he couldn’t just call it. There are all sorts of high-tech “find my phone” options — we love them. (Android, too.) But have you thought of sticking a little piece of adhesive to the back of your phone with your email address? Or with your partner’s cell phone number? That way, the party host or cab driver will instantly know whose phone was left behind and have a way to arrange its return. It could help to include the word “REWARD!” MY OTHER FRIEND SAVED THE AMAZON Well, not all of it; and certainly not alone. But more of it, and more effectively, than anyone else I can think of. Most recently, these 44,000 or so additional strategic acres* in Putumayo, Columbia. I’ve written about him many times — Mark Plotkin and his Amazon Conservation Team. Some of you have even chipped in support (so this latest victory is part yours). From a safe, comfortable distance in the American Museum of Natural History theater I watched him paddle from Amazon’s snowy mountain headwaters thousands of miles down to the ocean, and you can, too. (The trailer is free; the full 38-mnute documentary, instantly available for $2.99.) And in June I took two minutes of your time with the “cute frog, important message” clip. If you have 12 minutes more, listen to this recent NPR interview that begins with his vomiting purple phosphorescent scorpions. *Equivalent to about three Manhattan Islands.
Meet Trevor Noah August 11, 2015August 10, 2015 Here he is. Jon Stewart’s replacement. Major taltent, obviously . . . I just hope he has Stewart’s political focus, because we need it. Enjoy! PRMRF I recently bought this Canadian oil comany’s shares between $20 and $27 (down from $60) because a smart guy who’d done a lot of research saw potential for a five- or even ten-fold gain over the next few years. Very low production costs, apparently. The stock topped $30 in short order . . . but on Friday, at $11.86, I checked back. His view: the company’s problems are temporary, even if oil prices never rebound. He was buying more. So I have, too. Very glad I thought better of telling you about it at $30. Hope someday I may be glad I mentioned it to you now. But promise me you will only buy shares, if at all, with MYCTATL — money you can truly afford to lose. Which reminds me, as it’s been a while, that this may be as good a time as any to repeat my overall suggested strategy: Put most of the money you want exposed to the very real risks (but, over time, remarkable rewards) of the stock market — which must be money you will not need to touch for many years — into equally- or fundamentally-weighted index funds, as explained here. But if you want a little more excitement, and a chance to dream a little — and a possible tax advantage — consider setting aside a small portion of those funds to direct yourself, at Ameritrade or Fidelity. Split that cash it among perhaps five or six speculative bets (not made all at once, by the way . . . no need to rush into this). Those that crater could help you lower your taxable income by as much as $3,000 a year; those that soar (if any ever do) could remodel your kitchen or, so long as you hold them a year and a day, fund all your charitable giving (through the account you set up at Fidelity’s Charitable Gift Fund) with an added tax advantage, as also explained here. If you were new to all this, and had MYCTATL, you might want to buy 100 or 200 shares of BOREF, trading today barely above $6 a share (be sure to use a “limit” order), 100 shares of PRMRF as noted above, and perhaps even a few shares of SIGAQ, currently $1.15 or so, on which (against all reason?) I have not yet entirely given up. I often get such things wrong; but once in a while they go right.
Your Next Flight August 10, 2015August 9, 2015 Thanks to Business Insider’s piece on Scott Keyes, author of How To Fly For Free and How To Find Cheap Flights, for the link to theflightdeal.com — great if you don’t care exactly where you go, you just want to pounce on a crazy “mistake” fare to a destination that sounds cool and have an adventure. (He flew to Milan for $67.) The site could come in handy if, like Gunnar Garfors, you hope to visit all the world’s 198 countries by the age of 37, while holding down a full-time job. (His book: 198: How I ran Out of Countries.) All summarized, with 25 great photos (this is a man not afraid of heights), in this delightful story. Of more dubious value, the recommendation of skiplagged.com, which finds those cheap “hidden city” fares where you are supposed to connect in Minneapolis on your way to Dallas but just stay in Minneaspolis because that was where you wanted to go in the first place. I say “dubious” because I wouldn’t use the site myself, and you probably shouldn’t either. As Wikipedia explains: “Many airlines have established means of identifying and penalizing travelers who take advantage of such tactics, most notably through their frequent flier programs.[9] When a traveler is shown to have practiced such methods, airlines may respond by confiscating tickets, canceling frequent flier status, and billing travel agents for the fare difference. Airlines contend that booking ploys are an unethical practice. However, even though booking ploys might be a breach of contract and against airline rules, such endeavors are not considered illegal.” SINGING THE REPUBLICAN DEBATE Have you seen this? Who knew they can sing, too? (Sort of.)
Three Phone Calls August 7, 2015August 6, 2015 Now that we know for sure Donald Trump will not be President*, let’s get back to the issue at hand: have you found time to watch the President’s speech on Iran? If you haven’t already called to urge your senators and congressperson to support the deal, please let me know where you think the President’s logic breaks down. (Even the conservative Cato Institute seems to be coming down on this the right way, here.) *Oh! And look whose speeches Ivana says he apparently used to read. Seriously: he’s not going to be president. Have a great weekend. Call your senators and Congressperson.
Carhackers August 6, 2015August 5, 2015 Have you seen this 7-minute video from WIRED? I think cars will soon need passwords as well as locks. If I were you, I’d make mine really hard to guess. # And have you seen the President’s speech on Iran? If you haven’t already called to urge your senators and congressperson to support the deal, as the he asked of us yesterday — a civic duty, I remind myself when feeling put-upon, considerably less onerous than serving in the jungles of Vietnam, the desert of Iraq, or a frigid tent in Valley Forge — please let me know where you think the President’s logic breaks down. Seriously: this really matters.
An Israeli Take On Donald Trump August 5, 2015August 10, 2015 My friend Yoni translated this commentary from Haaretz for me. As we all look forward to the first Republican debate tomorrow, it strikes me as insightful: Republicans caught in Donald Trump’s reality show Chemi Shalev 07.28.2015 | 14:17 Americans just discovered they are trapped in the New York billionaire’s program. He is its director, presenter, and possibly its winner. The Republican Party stands helpless against a hostile takeover of its image The hero of the famous movie “The Truman Show,” starring Jim Carrey, discovers that his life is conducted in the virtual reality of a reality show that the whole world is watching. In Trump’s show the principle is similar but reversed: here it is America in general and the Republican Party in particular, that is trapped in a reality show whose director, presenter, and possibly winner is New York billionaire Donald Trump. For now, the man the media treats as a walking joke, leads the polls against all other Republican presidential candidates. In Iowa, where the first primary elections will be held on February 1, 2016, Trump is quickly closing the gap with the current front runner, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. In New Hampshire, which will hold the primaries a week later, Trump has already deposed former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and is opening a gap over his rivals. The Democrats are enjoying every minute of it, but Republicans have long ago stopped laughing. So far, the main victims of Trump’s success are political commentators, whose forecasts of Trump’s fast evaporation from the Republican race evaporated even faster; The Republican Party, which stands helpless in the face of Trump’s hostile takeover of its voice, image, and screen time; All 15 presidential candidates, who have been pushed out of sight; And the political discourse in America, currently being conducted under the shadow of blunt, simplistic, and racist statements made by Trump. The jet fuel for the 69-year-old’s takeoff is provided by the media, especially television networks, who are broadcasting and crying. Commentators cluck their tongues at Trump’s exploits but at the same time provide him with enthusiastic 24/7 coverage, at the expense of the other candidates and the serious issues on the agenda, including the agreement with Iran. Quite a few Republicans are talking about a liberal media conspiracy – to identify the entire Republican Party with Trump in order to hurt the GOP’s chances of winning the presidency. Indeed, in the six weeks since he announced he was joining the race, Trump has already caused significant damage to the republicans. That damage has doubled due to the lukewarm condemnation by his rivals, fearful of upsetting Trump’s supporters. The most severe damage he imposed on the GOP comes from his repeated comments about Mexican illegal immigrants being mostly “thugs, rapists and drug dealers.” This message is applauded among immigrant-hating whites, but infuriates the Hispanic community. Without a sizable chunk of Hispanic votes the Republicans will see the White House only from the outside. The media’s obsessive preoccupation with Trump stifles any hope Republicans had of focusing on criticizing President Obama. It dwarfs the other candidates, like Bush, Walker and Marco Rubio, and paints them pale and hesitant compared with the blunt and colorful real estate mogul; And it stresses the less known candidates, making them escalate their rhetoric and use silly gimmicks to gain a little media coverage and keep their heads above water. In recent days, as the date of the first televised debate of the party approaches, the hysteria of the laggards has grown considerably. Due to the many candidates and the difficulty of putting them all on one stage, Fox and CNN decided to limit participation to the ten candidates leading the polls. Candidates who lag behind know that if they don’t make it to the debate their campaign is over: they attack The Donald to bask in the margins of his fame, but usually they only come out injured. Trump – his plebeian style, venomous tongue, and confidence soaring – sends poisoned arrows toward his rivals, pushing them out of balance. Sen. Lindsey Graham is an idiot, Trump declared; Trump is an ass, replied the Senator; Take his phone number, Trump offered; Graham, a leading member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, turned himself into a D-list entertainer, uploading a YouTube video in which he smashes his cellphone in every possible way. He is a cancer in conservatism’s body, attacked Governor Rick Perry; Trump silenced him by declaring he is hiding his stupidity behind his glasses. The preacher and former governor Mike Huckabee regained the spotlight over the weekend by saying Obama, “is leading Israel in to the crematorium” with his nuclear deal with Iran. Obama replied, and many Republicans agreed, that “this statement would have been ridiculous if it were not so sad.” Pollsters and experts still do not believe Trump will keep the first place beyond the debate and first primaries: his campaign benefitted from his celebrity status, they claim, but when the moment of truth arrives the Republicans will go with a realistic candidate. But perhaps the commentators still misinterpret the political tea leaves? Trump is able to connect with the same radical, anti-establishment, anarchistic mood that led to the Tea Party victories in 2010. As New York Times Columnist, Timothy Egan, wrote earlier this week, Trump is not an exception but a “poison Republicans have concocted for themselves”: He feeds off the xenophobia, fear of minorities, rejection of liberal values, and hatred of Obama which Republicans have cultivated for the last decade. While they condemned Trump when he questioned John McCain’s heroism, they ignored his ongoing refusal to recognize Obama’s birth certificate. Trump the wild redhead embodies the tiger the Republicans rode this far and now find it hard to get off. He is a hero to those who want to “burn down the club,” who do not trust democracy, and are not prepared to hear more hollow slogans of established politicians like Bush or Rubio or Walker. They prefer someone who speaks frankly, in everyday language. This phenomenon exists, in a more subtle version, among Democrats, much to the delight of left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders and much to the chagrin of Hillary Clinton. Seventeen years ago, the Director of “The Truman Show”, described the magic of reality TV. The same magic which Trump built his fame and from which it draws, even now, his success: “Players with fake emotions bore us. We’re tired of pyrotechnics and special effects. The world Truman lived in was perhaps fake, but not Truman. He had no script or pre-conceived slogans. It’s not Shakespeare, but it’s totally real.” The two debates tomorrow should be fascinating — first the “kid’s table” debate, then the main one. And as if those weren’t reason enough to stay home, they will be followed, as you doubtless know, by Jon Stewart’s final Daily Show. What a void that will leave, unless John Oliver can somehow be persuaded to take it over after the next guy fails. (The next guy may be terrific; it’s not his fault; give him the time slot right before, or something. But the only two people I can imagine filling Jon Stewart’s shoes are: Jon Stewart and John Oliver.)