The Circus Is Over – Updated November 30, 2013December 2, 2013 Shortly after assuming the papacy — or perhaps as he was headed to the swearing in — the Pope was given a tour. A Vatican steward opened the double doors of an enormous closet and gestured grandly to show his Holiness the raiments he would wear for the various holidays and occasions. To which the Pope allegedly responded: “Close it up. Take it away. The circus is over.” It’s not clear whether any of this actually happened. It may be apocryphal. But — as the conservative Catholic columnist friend who related it to me over Thanksgiving dinner and I agreed — it really doesn’t matter. It’s true even if it didn’t happen. This columnist and I agree on very little else, but we agree on this much: we love Pope Francis. And everyone else at the table agreed. A Pope who truly gets Christ’s teachings! # One of the many things the columnist and I don’t agree on: Medicaid expansion. My guess is that the Pope would come down on the side of the governors who are accepting Federal money to cover more low income people. Likewise, that his Holiness would bridle at cutting food stamps for the hungry. My conservative Catholic columnist friend, a vocal Republican . . . even while characterizing this Pope and all his recent predecessors as “socialists” . . . could not take that leap. “Who can say where Pope Francis would, or Jesus would have, come out on these questions?” My own view: any idiot can say. But what do I know? Religion and ideology both run deep, and seem to co-exist in happy self-contradiction when faith in both is strong enough. # UPDATE: The Pope actually gives us a few more clues as to his thinking in this, his just-released, 224-page First Apostolic Exhortation. As summarized here. The official Vatican translation includes, for example: 54. In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power . . . This is not to say the Pope — or Jesus — should have the last word on economic policy. But in light of this 224-page treatise, I do think it’s hard to argue that “we can’t know” where the Pope (or, as I read the Bible, Jesus) would come down on expanding Medicaid or cutting food stamps — or, for that matter, raising the minimum wage, making it harder for the poor to vote, zeroing out the estate tax on billionheirs, and all the rest of it. I mean: Seriously?
The Circus Is Over November 29, 2013November 30, 2013 Shortly after assuming the papacy — or perhaps as he was headed to the swearing in — the Pope was given a tour. A Vatican steward opened the double doors of an enormous closet and gestured grandly to show his Holiness the raiments he would wear for the various holidays and occasions. To which the Pope allegedly responded: “Close it up. Take it away. The circus is over.” It’s not clear whether any of this actually happened. It may be apocryphal. But — as the conservative Catholic columnist friend who related it to me over Thanksgiving dinner and I agreed — it really doesn’t matter. It’s true even if it didn’t happen. This columnist and I agree on very little else, but we agree on this much: we love Pope Francis. And everyone else at the table agreed. A Pope who truly gets Christ’s teachings! # One of the many things the columnist and I don’t agree on: Medicaid expansion. My guess is that the Pope would come down on the side of the governors who are accepting Federal money to cover more low income people. Likewise, that his Holiness would bridle at cutting food stamps for the hungry. My conservative Catholic columnist friend, a vocal Republican . . . even while characterizing this Pope and all his recent predecessors as “socialists” . . . could not take that leap. “Who can say where Pope Francis would, or Jesus would have, come out on these questions?” My own view: any idiot can say. But what do I know? Religion and ideology both run deep, and seem to co-exist in happy self-contradiction when faith in both is strong enough. UPDATE: The Pope actually gives us a few more clues as to his thinking in this, his just-released, 224-page First Apostolic Exhortation. As summarized here. The official Vatican translation includes, for example: 54. In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power . . . This is not to say the Pope — or Jesus — should have the last word on economic policy. But in light of this 224-page treatise, I do think it’s hard to argue that “we can’t know” where the Pope (or, as I read the Bible, Jesus) would come down on expanding Medicaid or cutting food stamps — or, for that matter, raising the minimum wage, making it harder for the poor to vote, zeroing out the estate tax on billionheirs, and all the rest of it. I mean: Seriously?
China – II: Tryptophan and The Third Plenum November 27, 2013November 25, 2013 Two things occurred just a few days before I got to China. The first was a record-setting $5.4 billion on-line shopping day I had read about briefly here, described as “Bachelors’ Day” that I now understand is better translated “Singles’ Day” — for the day it falls each year, November 11. Get it? That’s “11/11” . . . all ones . . . Singles Day. . . . Today, millions of unattached Chinese took advantage of online shopping specials tailored for them—travel deals for lone travelers, single-serving rice cookers, boyfriend pillows, and deals on BMWs (helpful for shedding one’s single status).The holiday reflects the growing spending power of young Chinese professionals who are increasingly marrying later or not at all. . . . There are between 50 to 60 million bachelors in China who may never find a life partner because of China’s large gender imbalance. . . . It’s actually worth reading the whole story if you have time and want a novel look at China’s domestic economy. Great photos! Love that dude on the red chair. China’s on-line sales that day topped even our own record for post-Thanksgiving “black Friday” on-line shopping. Happy Thanksgiving, by the way! Turns out, turkey contains no more tryptophan than chicken — slightly less, according to this — and that eating either is not what makes you sleepy in any event. (Could it be the wine? I know: the kids don’t drink it, and they get sleepy, too. For them, it’s the conversation.) So eat all you want. We, and hundreds of millions of no longer impoverished Chinese, have a great deal to be thankful for. Which brings me to the second thing that occurred shortly before we arrived in China: release of “A Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensive and Far-Reaching Reforms,” a 60-point plan from the Third Plenum of the 18th Congress of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party — widely hailed as the most dramatic since those of Deng Xiaopeng in 1978 that have so astonishingly transformed China. These reforms include upgrading free-market forces from “a fundamental factor” in determining resource allocation to “the decisive factor” . . . relaxing China’s “one-child” policy for parents who are both only children themselves (giving rise to the popular riddle: if a 42-year-old woman and her 21-year-old daughter are both eligible to have two children, which should get pregnant first?*) . . . phasing out forced labor “re-education” camps . . . reforming the judiciary . . . and more. But it’s Thanksgiving Eve, for crying out loud, and I have a whole load of floats to blow up, so let’s put further details of my China trip on hold until Friday or Monday. *The daughter — lest she lose her eligibility once her mother has a second child.
China – I November 26, 2013November 24, 2013 Here‘s how to tell the air quality in Beijing (or anywhere else in the world). And here‘s a Beijing/Shanghai app for your phone. When we landed, the index was 46 — a glorious, sunny, bright, crisp, unusually healthy day (0-50 = healthy), a terrific way to encounter China for the first time. (As I type, back home, it is 22 in New York, 275 — also classified as “very unhealthy” — in Nanjing, our departure city.) But I’m getting ahead of myself. And may have to spread this account over more than one day, given the exigencies of jet lag and the four remaining episodes of “Breaking Bad” I have left to watch, mixed with the euphoria (fantasia?) of yesterday’s Borealis post. Have you seen this? Well, of course you haven’t. It’s a three-minute video showing how the brakes of a commercial jet reach 1400 degrees Celsius in the (rare, worst-case) event of a “rejected take-off” — where the pilot has the plane hurtling down the runway at 200 miles an hour and then realizes, oops, he forgot his keys. (Or something.) The reason this is interesting is that WheelTug places its little motor in the nose wheel. Its competition, Honeywell/Safran, chose the main landing gear — the wheels that house the brakes. Would adding stuff inside those wheels make things even more cramped and stuffy? Raise any other concerns? Here‘s a video of a Boeing 737’s wheels on fire earlier this year, upon landing in Moscow. Here‘s a report of a brake fire incident that seriously injured three passengers and a crew member. (Thank heavens no one died, even if, for the purposes of us shareholders, that would have been nice.) My point is not that the Honeywell/Safran approach is too dangerous to be approved — what do I know? Only that the level of scrutiny they would face to gain certification, if they ever get that far, may be higher than the level we face, because of the placement of their system hugging the brakes. Tomorrow: why I went to China.
Each Billion Adds $200 A Share November 25, 2013November 25, 2013 Now THAT was a week. I’ve flown in private jets before, but never a private 737. (Do NOT start lecturing me about my carbon footprint; it would have flown whether I was on it or not.) And I got to set foot in Alaska! (We had to refuel.) I’d never been to Alaska. It’s very nice. I’m still digesting . . . met some swell Communists and Republicans . . . more to come. While I was gone, nothing much happened with Borealis . . . stock ended the week at $16.80 . . . though they did issue this press release, about which I would note two things: • It would be entirely in-credible, had they not already proven a prior in-credible claim — their revolutionary little electric motor did fit in the nose wheel of a commercial airliner as they said it could and was able to drive that airliner around like a golf cart as they said it would. So maybe this tech breakthrough is real, too. • If it is real, it would seem potentially to add tens of billions of dollars to the long-term value of the company (with each billion the equivalent of $200 a share). To say that this is “still early” and “highly speculative” would be to pit understatement against the obvious. Still, take a read. I’ve bolded chunks for your convenience. Power Chips plc and Cool Chips plc Confirm the Ability to Enhance Electron Emissions Using Avto Metals Technology GIBRALTAR, Nov. 18, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Power Chips plc (OTC PINK:PWCHF) and Cool Chips plc (OTC PINK:COLCF) announce that their licensed Avto Metals technology to enhance the emission of electrons from surfaces has now been successfully replicated in a series of independent tests. When commercialized for Power Chips™, this technology should make possible an array of new products over many industries and applications, including a more efficient way to generate electrical power directly from heat with no moving parts. When commercialized for Cool Chips™, the technology will offer greatly enhanced thermal management capabilities for many consumer and industrial applications, enabling more efficient, smaller, cleaner, lower-cost and non-polluting products. Power Chips plc and Cool Chips plc plan to both licence and directly develop these applications. The patented proprietary technology, called Avto Metals™, reduces the work function of materials including metals and semiconductors. Work function is a measure of the energy required to remove an electron from a material. By reducing the work function barrier, electrons can escape more readily. This technology allows, for example, the design and building of more efficient thermionic/thermoelectric converters and better thermal management devices and possibly has use in many other industrial processes. The new technology results from the discovery that quantum interference, which reduces quantum state density at a material’s surface, can be achieved on a macroscopic scale. Simply by modifying the surface texture of a material in precise ways, using methods commonly applied in the manufacture of semiconductor devices, engineers should be able to exploit this Avto Effect™ and transform existing materials into materials with precisely-engineered properties for many new applications. When we fully understand the Avto Effect, we could possibly be able to custom design work functions for multiple different applications. Tests completed last week, conducted on silicon wafers with a nanoscale line pattern, covering millimeter-scale test pads and forming a surface texture to demonstrate the Avto Effect, showed significant and consistent reductions in work function. Results were in line with prior tests using surfaces of several metals. This work on the science and the technology has been ongoing for more than 15 years. More than 40 issued patents cover both the basic technology and many applications. The steps forward to commercialization are not trivial and obviously high value products will be the first developed. Commercialization is now possible because of the tremendous advances in semiconductor technology in the last decade which made possible the building of the required Avto Metal structures in a major university laboratory. When the Avto Metals work began over 15 years ago, the world simply did not have the required nanoscale technology to either build or confirm the underlying Avto Metals science. After scaling to larger dimensions, the technology should enable large cost and efficiency improvements in electrical power generation and refrigeration. The power generation technology, called Power Chips, should revolutionize electrical power generation across virtually all applications. For example, adding Power Chips to extract heat that is now wasted in conventional power plants should be able to increase power generation by up to 20% with no change in fuel consumption or emissions. Power Chips should make possible safe, efficient distributed power, enabling buildings or factories to cogenerate their own electricity from waste heat or geothermal sources. In automobiles and other vehicles, for example, Power Chips may replace the alternator, reducing the mechanical load on the engine and thereby increasing the efficiency of internal combustion engines and hybrids. The cooling technology derived from the Avto Effect, called Cool Chips, should similarly reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of most cooling or refrigeration systems. It requires no moving parts or motors, produces no chemical emissions, and can be miniaturized for use in micro-electronic applications. The Avto Metals technology is being developed by Avto Metals plc, which has a stock symbol AMTPF but whose shares have never publicly traded, while Power Chips are being developed by Power Chips plc (OTC PINK:PWCHF), and Cool Chips are being developed by Cool Chips plc (OTC PINK:COLCF). All three companies are majority-owned and two are publicly-traded subsidiaries of Borealis Exploration Limited (PSE.cz:BOREY)(OTC PINK:BOREF). We are in discussions at present to obtain the necessary funding to bring at least one Power Chip and one Cool Chip product to market. There can be no assurance that these discussions will be successful or that the ongoing work will produce any marketable products. Forward-Looking Statement The discussion of Power Chips plc and Cool Chip plc’s business and operations in this release includes in several instances forward-looking statements, which are based upon management’s good faith assumptions relating to the financial, market, operating and other relevant environments that will exist and affect the Power Chips plc and Cool Chip plc’s business and operations in the future. All technical, scientific, and commercial statements regarding technologies and their impacts are based on the educated judgment of the technical and scientific staff of Power Chips plc and Cool Chips plc. No assurance can be made that the assumptions upon which management based its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, or that the business and operations of Power Chips plc and Cool Chips plc will not be affected in any substantial manner by other factors not currently foreseeable by management or beyond Power Chips plc and Cool Chip plc’s control. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainty. Neither Power Chips plc nor Cool Chips plc undertakes any obligation to publicly release the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements that might be made to reflect the events or circumstances after the date hereof, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events; including those described in this release, and such statements shall be deemed in the future to be modified in their entirety by the public pronouncements, including those contained in all future release, reports, and other documents filed by Power Chips plc and/or Cool Chips plc with relevant Securities Commissions. Because you bought your shares with money you could truly afford to lose: don’t sell them. WheelTug alone would seem to warrant cautious optimism. It purports to be able to save upwards of $700,000 per year per aircraft, with 13 airlines already signed up as potential lessors of 731 systems . . . but if this thing does fly, it would seem to me everyone would want it (who buys a TV without a remote control any more? or a cell phone that can’t also text?), so more than 10,000 systems, potentially, netting a profit of, say, $50,000 a year each (the company seems to be aiming a lot higher than that), or $500 million a year profit . . . so maybe that alone adds $2.5 billion ($500/share) to Borealis’s potential value . . . and now you have this new stuff . . . my point is that — to me — it’s still an easy call: at $17 or so, even though that’s up nicely from the $3 a lot of us paid, the downside remains unchanged . . . 100% loss (although at this point, it’s less clear to me why the company and its patents would be worthless) . . . while the upside could be insane. And even though it won’t be — because how could I ever be this lucky? and because anything that seems too good to be true, as this surely does, almost always is — the entertainment value alone is worth $17 a share. Is this not the most fun you ever had?
We Have Hot Water! November 22, 2013December 27, 2016 Jeff H.: “I’ve heard you talk often about our level of happiness and our failure to recognize that we have good lives. This article in The Atlantic helps explain why that is.” ☞ It’s not enough to think positively, the author report (though that never hurts); you have to learn to savor the good stuff. Which if you can just imagine yourself to have been living for tens of thousands of years in caves, as our ancestors did, with neither wifi nor hot water, is not so difficult to do. LESS AND I MAKE A BET Last week one of you asked about the liquidation of the Formula Funds and “Who wins the bet between you and Less Antman?” To new-ish readers of this column, and/or those with no interest in mutual funds, this is all inside baseball. Don’t bother reading any further. But I did promise to ask Less to do the math, and — gracious and brilliant as ever — he did: “The bet has gotten complicated with the closing of funds, the need to clone replacement data, and the differing geographical areas of the various funds,” he reports, “but I’m happy to note that: (1) My choices have performed in line with my expectation for alternative indexing in general, beating market-weighted benchmarks by around 1.5% per year; (2) Joel’s funds have done even better overall, adding another 1.8% per year, and (3) Anybody who draws a conclusion based on less than 3 years is out of his or her mind, since as recently as last year both Joel’s funds and my suggested alternatives were trailing index returns. So you’re ahead at the moment, but I am by no means despondent about my chances before the next edition comes out.” ☞ Which will be years from now, so don’t wait: click here to see how you, too, may be able to do better than market-weighted index funds, and so I can afford the airfare back from Nanjing. Have a great weekend.
Florida Will Be A Blue State For Sure November 21, 2013November 14, 2013 Under water, that is. Click here for the details, and enjoy it while you can — come on down! I’m supposed to be in Nanjing as you read this, and I assume it’s been making me crazy not to be able to watch MSNBC or Jon Stewart and Colbert while I’m here (though I’m in New York as I write this, last week) . . . but my point is — building on Smart Wheels I and II from yesterday and the day before (if they got posted on time in my absence) — we’d really be wise to get cracking on this climate change stuff if we don’t want every day on South Beach to look like this from last week. This is Alton Road for crying out loud — one of the key north-south arteries! The other thing about Florida is that it has more Democrats than Republicans . . . yet, because of the way the districts are drawn, both houses of the legislature are — and have long been — heavily-to-overwhelmingly Republican. That Republicans don’t much care about climate change makes a certain amount of sense in Florida because Democrats there are mostly concentrated in South Florida, and that’s the part that will be under water. Go, Dolphins!
Smart Wheels – Part II November 20, 2013November 14, 2013 Yesterday, the thorium-powered car. Today the seemingly more immediately likely motorized bike. WheelTug is a big wheel — and old news to readers of this column. FlyKly is a small one. Both could be big deals. And FlyKly doesn’t even require FAA certification. It’s a little nuts that China is replacing rickshaws and bicycles with millions of cars (and asphyxiating smog), while New York is moving to Citi bikes and pedicabs and now, soon, perhaps, FlyKly wheels. But leaving that aside (I am slated to be in China as you read this, but was in New York as I wrote it), you gotta watch this five minute best Kickstarter video ever (from which they’ve already raised nearly five times their goal).
Smart Wheels – Part I November 19, 2013November 19, 2013 I understand none of the science of course. But if it works, this car would run on 8 grams of thorium — for a century. Whether or not this particular breakthrough pans out, I’m telling you: if we don’t screw it up in the next decade or three — a fraction of an instant in geological time and not much more than that even in human time — the future will be all but unimaginably bright. Of course, that’s a big if. And perhaps we should look to Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and the climate change denier who chairs the House climate change subcommittee for direction in getting from here to there. Maybe it’s all in Ayn Rand’s epic comic book that Paul Ryan actually takes seriously and whom Rand Paul seems to have been named after (but from whose views Ayn Rand disciple Alan Greenspan long-since distanced himself). Maybe the Tea Party guys who actually wanted to shut down the government and who think the federal budget should be run like a household budget — that we shouldn’t borrow to invest in our future (would they have voted against borrowing to win World War II? why is it better to borrow to blow things up than borrow to build things that will last 100 years?) — maybe they are the visionaries. But something tells me that, for all their genuinely good intentions — Sarah Palin thought she was qualified to run the world in the event of John McCain’s demise, and he thought so, too — they are the problem, not the solution.
40 Tricks For A Better Life November 18, 2013November 15, 2013 I’m off grid this week (in a suit and tie, so don’t start moaning about how I’ve gone all Bali on you) but as noted Friday, I have pre-cooked some fillers for the week . . . some better than others . . . because I can’t stand the thought of your ignoring me for more than a day or two at a time. 40 TRICKS It seems to me I may have posted this link once before. But that was the day your cat got stuck behind the refrigerator and caused you to miss it — so I’m running it again. Some of the tips are more clever than useful, but they’re fun anyway. HE’LL BUY THE INK From DNC Communications Chief Mo Elleithee last Thursday: I’m eager and proud to run on Obamacare in 2014 Mo Elleithee “We will tattoo it to their forehead in 2014.” That’s what RNC Chair Reince Priebus said this weekend about how the GOP would try to use Obamacare to beat Democratic candidates in 2014. By tattooing it to our foreheads. Well, I’ve got a message for Reince – bring it on. You see, I’m a Democrat who – despite all the glitches — is anxious, eager and proud to run ON the Affordable Care Act. Why? Because it’s working, and people are already getting better, more affordable health care than before. People no longer have to worry about losing coverage for preexisting conditions. Young Americans are able to stay on the parent’s health plan for longer. People across the country are able to shop around and find better coverage for less money. And 500,000 Americans have, so far, been able to sign up for health coverage through the federal exchange, state exchanges, and Medicaid expansion. That’s half a million Americans who did not have health insurance, that now do. And one million more consumers are ready to get the plan that’s right for them. And that’s just in one month. Has it been perfect? No. President Obama and Democrats are the first to admit the website challenges have been unacceptable. Would more people be able to enroll if the website was working properly – yes, of course. And they will. But you know what else would help get more people enrolled? If Republicans would stop their concerted effort to block the law at every turn. If more Republican governors would set up state exchanges or expand Medicaid. If Republican lawmakers would stop holding ridiculous hearings to score political points, and help folks figure out how to fix the problems. But they’ve never really been interested in that. They don’t want Obamacare to work. They are actually afraid of it working. Why? Because they know once people begin to enjoy the benefits that come with a better and more affordable health care system, they won’t want to give them up. And that terrifies Republicans to no end. So much so, that they even shut down the government and risked us defaulting on our national bills in order to stop it. Look, we’ve got some work to do to fix the glitches and get more people enrolled. We did that during the Bush Administration when Medicare Part D had a rocky rollout, and we can do it again now. Will that stop the Republicans from trying to kill it? Nope. Ted Cruz has already signaled that he’s open to another shutdown in January to try to stop Obamacare. Just as President Obama unveiled some administrative fixes to the program, Marco Rubio said that, “by no means should we be exploring ways to fix this law.” John Boehner renewed his commitment to “targeted strikes” aimed at repealing Obamacare, regardless of its impact on the American people. They are going to keep fighting this to the bitter end. Talk about tone deaf. This is what they want to expend their energy on. Nothing else. (Well, except for restricting women’s health care decisions. They’ll still keep trying that. Oh, and blocking commonsense immigration reform. That appears to be a priority as well.) No wonder a poll this week showed Congressional approval at an all-time low: 9%! So, yeah. I’m eager, anxious and proud to run on this in 2014. Because under the Affordable Care Act, half a million people have signed up for health care so far, and that number is only going to get higher. The Republican plan is to try to take that away. Because under the Affordable Care Act, being a woman is no longer a preexisting condition. The Republican plan would not only make it one again, but they would impose even more restrictions on women’s health care access. Because every single Democratic member of Congress is committed to finding the solutions to make the Affordable Care Act work even better. The Republican Party? It shut down the federal government, delivering a $24 billion hit to our economy. I’ll take that fight any day of the week. Republicans tried to “tattoo” Obamacare to our foreheads in 2012. We won. They tried it in Virginia in 2013. We won. Now they want to try it again in 2014? OK. I’ll buy the ink.