Whence the Middle Class August 31, 2011March 24, 2017 TAX THE POOR Stephen N.: “The lower class of income earners pay far less than their fair share of taxes. They should be taxed more.” DISCRETIONARY INCOME Barry: “Manish Bhatia didn’t quite have the right facts yesterday, though I agree with the sentiments. In 2008, the top 10% earned 46% of income and paid 70% of taxes – which is okay by me, but not by the ultra right. Here are some tables that will keep us from being labeled liars.” ☞ Helpful, except you missed one key word in Manish’s post: discretionary. (You may have missed this because it wasn’t there.* Now it is.) Discretionary income is what folks have left after the necessities have been paid for – basic food and shelter, shoes, the utility bill. Most people have relatively little discretionary income . . . even after working all day at jobs the wealthy want done but would rather not do themselves. For those at the top, most of their income is discretionary. “Well, tough,” some people will argue: “Low-income folks should live in the street, if need be, or malnourish their children (or proffer them for adoption), before we ask the best off to pay Reagan-era taxes on capital gains or Clinton-era taxes on income.” I am not one of those people. And, in fairness, I don’t think anyone thinks he is one of those people. Yet aren’t those who call for “tax cuts on the job creators” and a cut off of unemployment benefits – and other cuts to the social safety net – arguing just that? Somehow they manage to keep from allowing themselves to connect the dots. But that’s what they’re arguing: that the busboy who clears the dishes at their country club has it too easy. That if he should someday need Social Security (that Rick Perry wants to dismantle), tough. He should just get rich and join his own country club, as they did. I see it differently. I’d prefer to see no tax levied on the first dollars one earns that cover the costs of basic food and shelter (nothing fancy, but, yes, a refrigerator, too, and the electricity it takes to run it, and other such things); but then some reasonable graduated income tax on the remainder. Which was pretty much what we had under Clinton when we balanced the budget and created 23 million new jobs. *The original post said “disposable” income, which actually means all after-tax income. UNLEASH THE PLAGUE Karen Tiede: “Re Sarah’s note yesterday: ‘And it is important to point out that if [my best friend, the low-paid nursing-home worker] and many people just like her were to disappear, lots of very rich people would suffer. And there is great likelihood that they would suffer physically. Something to think about.’ Essentially, this is what happened in Europe as a result of the plague. Poor people died and there was no-one to do the physical labor that made the wealth flow to the people who owned the land that made them wealthy. Enter the middle class: a direct consequence of the transfer of power that happened when lots and lots of poor people died from the plague. From Wikipedia: In Western Europe, the sudden shortage of cheap labour provided an incentive for landlords to compete for peasants with wages and freedoms, an innovation that, some argue, represents the roots of capitalism, and the resulting social upheaval “caused” the Renaissance, and even the Reformation. In many ways the Black Death and its aftermath improved the situation of surviving peasants, notably by the end of the 15th century. In Western Europe, labourers gained more power and were more in demand because of the shortage of labour. In gaining more power, workers following the Black Death often moved away from annual contracts in favour of taking on successive temporary jobs that offered higher wages.[21] Workers such as servants now had the opportunity to leave their current employment to seek better-paying, more attractive positions in areas previously off limits to them.[21] ☞ Short of unleashing the plague, what would you say to things like child-labor laws and the 40-hour work week and “weekends,” which tighten the supply of worker-hours? What would you say to reasonable minimum-wage laws and a social safety net and collective bargaining and a progressive income tax and an inheritance tax? If you were a modern day Republican – the Governor of Wisconsin, for example – you would say: a pox on such things. They just interfere with the free market and impede the glorious work of the job creators.
The Divide – II August 30, 2011March 24, 2017 Picking up from yesterday’s discussion . . . Sam Kahn: ‘Agree 100 per cent with Anne. My wife is a recently retired school teacher in New Jersey who sends and receives emails from other retired or active school teachers in New Jersey. Literally from day one of the Obama Presidency, emails have been sent around with the most outrageous claims and charges about the President. For many, President Obama is the Manchurian candidate. They have given him credit for zero accomplishments and blame him for everything wrong that happened. And these are school teachers. I’m not talking about one or two people. Lots of them.’ Manish Bhatia: ‘Re: ‘Funny how the richest 1% pay about 30-40% of the taxes and the poorest 40% pay about 3% of the taxes. The rich are already paying a lot more than they should be’ . . . I had heard third this argument from a Sr exec of the start-up I worked for. His statement was something like – ‘top 10% people pay 80% of the taxes’ (adding that it was very unfair). My answer was, ‘if top 10% made 90% of the discretionary income, why was it wrong for them to pay 80% of the taxes?’ He literally didn’t know what to say. In America, income disparity is becoming similar to third-world countries. The biggest problem is how Republicans are able to get people to vote against their own interests.’ Sarah Johnson: ‘I have to tell you something. Feel free to use it as you like, or not, in your blog. Every time I read or hear some version of ‘I made my money, I worked hard, I deserve to keep it…those poor people are poor because they don’t work hard…if they knuckled down they’d be rich, too…’ and the implication that the poor are nothing more than backdrop to these rich people’s lives and are completely unimportant, I am astounded. Not at their privilege, at their greed nor even at their mean-spiritedness. I have seen lots of that over the years – even as a child – and was ‘fortunate’ enough to get a very hands-on, broad education about matters of class, race, and economics. What astounds me is their ignorance and their shear lack of understanding of how even their own world works. . . . My best friend – and my oldest friend – is brilliant. She is intellectually curious. Considering she has a GED that she got in preparation for dropping out of high school and moving far away from her family for reasons of self-preservation at 16 and she never had the time nor funds to complete college, even at a community college, she is extremely well-educated. At this point in our lives, we know that we would not be friends if we hadn’t become friends when I dangled a huge rubber tarantula in front of her from a staircase and then ‘made up’ for it by asking her if she wanted to play Old Maid when I was 7. We have managed to not let class and economics get in the way of our friendship – and, believe me, we have had to baldly discuss these things because we are from very different backgrounds in many, many ways. . . . She works harder than most people I meet and she is very good at what she does. She is also woefully underpaid for her work. She is a caregiver at a nursing home. She has managed a house at a facility for developmentally disabled adults. She has worked as a private (in home) caregiver. She is not an RN (no college degree, remember?) but she has several certifications in pharmaceutical dispensing, first aid, emergency response, and other long-term care skills. She has stayed up with people as they are dying. She has maintained friendships and care for people who were in her wing or house of the facility and helped them maintain their continuity as they move from one level of care to another and adjust. She has saved people’s lives and alleviated pain. She has helped people keep from being scared. She has kept her eye on people’s medical files and charts and prevented accidental overdoses or missed medication and alerted doctors to changes in their patients that they might have missed. . . . All her working life so far, large parts of our conversation are about people she has cared for and cares for and when I visit her, I know that I will have to spend at least half a day at her work meeting people she cares for and that I will be hearing lots from them about how much they care for her as well. They will ask me things about our childhoods. They will ask me if I think she’d like their nephews/grandsons/sons (as we’ve gotten older) because they want to do something nice for her. She is poor. When her hours get cut, she has to rely on public assistance even before layoffs – that’s how poorly paid she is! She is ashamed of that, even though she’s been paying into it with every salary check, because people like these I’ve-got-mine-screw-you folks constantly tell her she isn’t worth as much as they are. She deserves much, much better and not just because she is my best friend and I love her. And, it is important to point out that if she, and many people just like her, were to disappear, lots of very rich people and not-so-rich-but-still-people-who-have-more-than-they-need would suffer a lot. And there is great likelihood that they would suffer physically. Something to think about.’
The Divide August 29, 2011March 24, 2017 IRENE What am I going to do with all this food? MORE KEN FEEDBACK Anne Vivino-Hintze: “I’m over 60, too, and I sometimes feel like Ken does – like giving up – but not because of Obama. I have lived in my rural Republican township in a Republican county for over 35 years. The vitriol towards Obama that erupted as soon as he was elected surprised me. My car displays an Obama bumper sticker and a born-locally friend in her 80s told me that she sometimes fears for my safety because of my bumper sticker. My neighbors are good folks who work hard for very modest wages and help each other out. They would benefit from Democratic policies. But they are blinded to that by the vitriol. The local cable company carries Fox but not MSNBC. The Republican owner says MSNBC would cost too much. The most erroneous, venomous emails about Obama are quickly and enthusiastically shared and believed. When I counter with facts from Snopes or FactCheck, I am removed from those email lists. I have talked with Democrats who are furious with Obama but who also say they don’t personally know any Republicans. If they really got to know their Republican neighbors, they would be amazed at all Obama has accomplished, while maintaining his dignity and civility, in the face of a wall of hatred and misinformation.” THE DIVIDE Truly, as Anne notes, there is such a divide. The world according to Fox (“the wealthy are job creators”; “by far the vast majority” of Bush’s tax cuts went to “people at the bottom end of the economic ladder”) versus the world according to facts (after Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, 23 million jobs were created; since Bush lowered them, few jobs have been created; by far the vast majority of Bush’s tax cuts went to people at the top of the economic ladder). Here’s how many on the other side see it: a comment on a post that criticized the President for compromising too much. It shows – not that we didn’t already know – how sharply divided the country is. Steve a 44-y-o from Carmichael, CA: “Typical liberal/socialist nonsense. However, [the post is] right in one aspect…Obama is looking more like Carter every day. But it’s not because he won’t stand up to Republicans, it’s because he is a LIBERAL/SOCIALIST. LIBERAL/SOCIALISTs are always weak because they are always wrong. I have never met a liberal that could objectively defend one of their political positions using reason or logic. You guys still are stuck in broken record mode chanting over and over how the rich don’t pay their fair share. Define rich. Obama would have you think that anyone who has more money than you is rich. Funny how the richest 1% pay about 30-40% of the taxes and the poorest 40% pay about 3% of the taxes. The rich are already paying a lot more than they should be. Big shocker here…it’s their money, they should get to keep it. Funny how you want the people who actually work to just give their hard earned money to people who refuse to work. Do you have any facts at all in that liberal brain of yours? You do realize that half of the people in the country pay ALL of the taxes and half of the people pay none! Guess which half vote for socialist/democrats? That’s right..socialist welfare slugs vote for democrats and hard working patriots vote for conservatives. You are always wrong. When are you gonna figure it out. Liberals think act and reason like little children.” ☞ To many of us, this seems profoundly wrongheaded. Where Steve sees lazy people refusing to work and hedge fund managers sweating to earn every penny of their $100 million – by creating tremendous value – we liberals tend to see the lawn guy working all day for eight bucks an hour while his wife cleans hotel rooms for another eight, struggling to make a good life for their kids. Or we see people desperate for work, lining up in jackets and ties for a five-hour wait in the Atlanta sun for an interview. And we see Wal-Mart heirs on yachts who never worked a single hour for their fortunes. We do NOT begrudge them those fortunes; we just think it would be better if we went back to the kind of taxes on wealth that prevailed under Ronald Reagan (second greatest man ever to walk the Earth). And we agree with Warren Buffett (whose reasoning ability may be beyond that of “little children”) that it’s nuts for him to be in a lower tax bracket than his receptionist. THE DIVIDE – II Jeff Cox: “I suspect I would like Rachel Maddow, and I almost always agree with her; but I can never watch one of your links all the way through because she takes too long to make a point, and I do not share her level of interest in the details. Ken who does not care anymore probably does not watch her either. However, Ken – and anyone else of reasonable progressive sensibilities – should not miss the silver lining of the polarized political discourse today. Once upon a time, reasonable people had to invest time weighing the candidates, choosing the one who might be better for the country. We had to research positions and weigh pros and cons. That is all over now. I just vote Democrat and go on. Sure, I would like more moderation, more compromise, more concern for others’ values, but the two parties are really not much alike right now, and one is much better for me. As for the president’s compromising, that is his job. As far as I can tell, he is usually the smartest person in the room, and he plainly does care. He spends time on pros and cons, so I’m happy with whatever he recommends.” CHIN UP Dave Davis (who also inherited the happy gene): “We humans are sure a negative lot. But, that’s nothing new, right? ‘Times are bad. Children no longer obey their parents, and everyone is writing a book.’ – Marcus Tullius Cicero (106 BC – 43 BC). More people need our happy gene. It’s hard to imagine not being completely – and deliriously – optimistic about the future. We have an amazing foundation on which to build an incredible America. What our pioneer fathers and mothers would have given for electricity, indoor plumbing, air conditioning, paved roads, railroads, computers, the Internet and grocery stores stocked with everything imaginable! If they were to come back today and see our wealth of resources, they would laugh at the very thought of our being discouraged and glum about the future. That’s the spirit we need right now.” ☞ Indeed. When everyone joins the fight to modernize our infrastructure, achieve energy independence, and spur innovation, we’ll have even more to feel hopeful about. There shouldn’t be an unemployed construction worker anywhere in America.
You Respond To Ken August 26, 2011March 24, 2017 Peter Kaczowka: “To Ken and others who say ‘politics stink,’ I say ‘hold your nose and vote.’ If it takes two hands, bring a clothespin.” Kathryn Lance: “I too am over sixty. I don’t have millions, and if the right-wing thugs succeed in doing away with Social Security and Medicare I’ll be eating cat food and my cats will be eating mice. I STILL LOVE AND BELIEVE IN OUR WONDERFUL PRESIDENT. Seeing how many so-called liberals, like your rich friend in today’s column, have given up on him depresses me to tears. Have they not noticed that he has been thwarted and dissed at every turn, not only by the opposition but by most of the media? There is so much to say in his defense, but why should he have to be defended? He should be thanked and blessed each day for all he has accomplished against such great odds and unimaginable disrespect and vilification.” Chuck Burgner: “Save the money millions I don’t have, Ken expresses my sentiments to the tee. I too donated to Obama’s campaign and volunteered time to his election at our local Obama office. And often I ask myself ‘why I did it?’ I wrote to Obama several months ago and told him of my disappointment and that he was not the same man I voted for.” ☞ You did it because Obama stood – and stands – for almost all the same things you do (science, reason, moderation, compassion, shared responsibility, a strong social safety net, health insurance for all, a woman’s right to choose, equal rights for people like me, a progressive Supreme Court, membership in the community of nations, investment in education, innovation and infrastructure, clean air and water, effective government regulation) and because he was – and remains – a man of astounding talent and temperament. And because the alternative was a heroic but reckless man, 894th in is class of 897, who chose as his understudy a woman who got a D in economics and couldn’t name any newspapers or magazines she read regularly. Rick: “Please forward this to Ken: I too get tired. I too have been a bit disappointed as our President keeps his cool while his critics howl into the wind. But if we don’t care, who will? Who will care for the inner-city youth in need of a quality education? Who will make sure impoverished expectant mothers receive quality medical care for their unborn babies? Who will assure dignity is available to EVERY American? I left the Republican party two years ago as I finally opened my eyes to the truth that THEY DON’T CARE! They give lip service to win elections while spinning public policy to make the rich wealthier and the poor, more impoverished. They still laugh at racial jokes, bully gay kids and expect the inner-city kids to fix their own problems. I too am tired, but mostly of their rhetoric. We must fight, and if not for victory in our generation, then for those who come after us. Ken, true happiness will only come by living our lives for other people. The GOP must be the largest group of the most unhappy people in the world. If I were not so mad, I would feel sorry for them.” Kevin Kotowski: “If it’s any consolation, I hear Ken, too. There are times (many times) over the last couple of years when I wanted to wash my hands of politics completely. Does Obama disappoint us occasionally? Of course. But I believe we as a country are in far better shape than if McCain/Palin had won. The Democrats’ problem isn’t that they’ve accomplished little, it’s that they aren’t getting the word out and letting the country know all they HAVE done. Your list of accomplishments under this President was inspiring and so I forwarded it on to my friends both Democratic and Republican (many who are disgusted with their own party’s shenanigans) and posted it on my Facebook page. Maybe it’s up to us to yell a little louder about what we Democrats have accomplished.” Jim: “Re: ‘Disappointed Ken’ yesterday, I liked your response but feel you missed three useful tacks: **** 1. The problem isn’t evil crazy Republicans and cowardly Obama. It’s evil crazy Republicans and cowardly media, which is intimidated (by the right’s nonstop hollering about supposed ‘liberal bias’) into under-reporting his victories. Your list of Obama’s good deeds barely gets started. Few are aware of it all because the media downplays it. And so liberals are ‘disappointed’ because they’re poorly informed, drawing their conclusions from the results of a small handful of big, spotlit fights. **** 2. Tons of your kindred spirits who aren’t 60 year old millionaires will suffer if Republicans win. I understand the urge to give up on low/middle class Republicans foolish enough to clamor for policies counter to their own interests. But why abandon the rest of us, who do not yet ‘have ours?’ Obama may have disappointed Ken (though he’s done a better job than Gore or Kerry would have done, and look what happened when we didn’t fully support them), but he hasn’t turned away from it all in disgust. So who’s the coward? If Ken is absolutely resigned to stop caring, then at least throw a big wad of dough at the Democrats as you leave, as a gesture toward the rest of us who are too young and too poor to disconnect from this insanity. **** 3. The right’s persistent, and this exasperates the left into giving up. Pushy immoderate forces always have an advantage. For example, that’s why our gun laws sharply diverge from majority preferences. And it’s why two year olds throw tantrums, forcing aggravated mothers to give them their chocolate cake. By pulling yourself out of the game, Ken accomplishes their agenda to a tee. You hand them their cake. This is a binary tug of war, and one side will never let go of the rope. You may spitefully yell ‘ALL of you can burn in hell!’ as you walk away, but don’t fool yourself. You are granting victory to one side – the side you consider ‘evil and nuts’.” ☞ For the record: I think ‘evil’ is way too strong. But ‘selfish’ and ‘bullying’ and ‘misguided’ sometimes fit. Mike M (in response to an earlier column): “But nobody knows the Republicans are doing this [terrible] stuff, unless they watch what’s her name (the lesbian you are always linking to, I’m not knocking her, I know several and like them) but they know she is liberal so they don’t – they have fair and balanced FOX NEWS and viewers think they are getting the truth. They think the other station is biased. Believe me, they think FOX is telling the truth. I used to watch them and never suspected they were lying until I started reading up on the facts. (Granted I watched Fox because of the really hot women, which I am sure is one strategy to hook people in.) The Dems gotta wise up and get a TV station with even better looking women, and guys too . . . say it is even more fair and balanced and get people to watch so the truth can be exposed. You don’t need a biased station, just one to expose the lies.” GOOD NEWS Here’s one piece of bright news (about 8 minutes into the clip): the Tea Party is now less popular than 23 of the 24 groups rated in a recent poll. They finished dead last behind atheists, gays, Muslims, and 20 others. So maybe – though loud – they are not winning the argument.
Dinner With Warren Buffett Also: SIGA, UTHR, CVV August 25, 2011March 24, 2017 FINDING THE ENERGY Ken: “With respect to yesterday’s post – “The Most Important Election Ever” – how do you find the energy to keep going in spite of it all? Because politics stinks. I know, you will say we have no other alternative. Or do we? I’m thoroughly disgusted with it all. The Republicans are evil and nuts, Obama and the Democrats are cowardly. I fantasize that even if the Republican 2012 ticket were Perry/Bachmann, I’m not going to vote for Obama again. I know, you have a whole list of supposed ways he is just terrific peachy-keen but I’m sick of him. Read the liberal blogs. Why do the Republicans slavishly pay attention to their base and Obama expects to TAKE ME FOR GRANTED? I thought we were getting another Roosevelt. HA HA. Sorry – I’m outta here. I don’t have kids, I’m over 60, and I’m TOO OLD TO CARE ANYMORE. Let the country fall apart now. I’m well off, I have my millions, I should have been a Republican anyway due to my assets and income.* No, I won’t turn Republican now, but I will stop caring for Democrats. Every year I voted and donated and got my friends all fired up, and every year things just got worse and keep getting worse. I. Just. Don’t. Care. Anymore. I have mine, who cares about anyone else? Sounds awful but that’s what I feel right now. I gave Obama the benefit of the doubt the first time, the second time, the third time, on and on, and now I’m broken. He’s not anywhere near the president I wanted. His fancy words mean nothing.** He gives away the farm and calls it bipartisanship, then they come back and get more out of him.” ☞ Too old to care anymore? It sounds as though Ken cares very much, or he wouldn’t be so upset. I told him that when I replied, continuing: “You will come back – I know you will. And if you do look at the accomplishments, you’ll find that, though blocked at every turn by the opposition, they are very real. Universal health insurance paid for by a tax on income above $250,000? Sounds pretty Rooseveltian to me. And if women are a constituency Democrats should not take for granted, how about tripling their representation on the Court or signing the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act or (moving from the lofty to the nitty-gritty) removing the co-pay on birth control coverage? If gays and lesbians should not be taken for granted, how about more federal progress for LGBT Americans in the last two and a half years than in the prior 250 years combined? (This is actually one I keep track of.) If environmentalists are a core constituency, how about more than doubling the CAFE standards and putting unprecedented resources into seeding alternative energy? Working families struggling to make ends meet? How about making college loans more affordable by cutting out the banks? How about knocking $1,000 off the payroll tax and fighting successfully to extend unemployment insurance? How about launching the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau? How about 16 tax cuts for small business? Reluctant warriors? How the sensible way we’ve handled Libya? How about putting major defense cuts prominently on the agenda? How about rejoining the community of nations and regaining our standing in the world? “I grant you, there is SO much more to do. And that and much of what was done fell short of the ideal. But the reason you and I haven’t gotten all we wanted is the opposition. So it’s EASY to be motivated – because the stakes are SO high and the choice between the two parties is SO stark. “Still, I have no doubt you’ve earned a breather. We will welcome you back the minute you’re ready!” And then I sent a brief follow-up. (Well, I couldn’t resist.) “Now, don’t laugh,” I wrote, “but how about chipping a sliver off those millions and treating yourself to dinner with me and Warren Buffett at [a fancy restaurant] in New York at the end of next month?” After all, Buffett’s over 60, too, and is wildly disappointed with the state of affairs, as Ken and I are, but he thinks that a good Democratic result in 2012 is worth working for. Fingers crossed that Ken will join us. (Me-mail me if you want in, too.) As I say, he obviously cares deeply. SIGA Hang in there. More good news. UTHR Guru writes: “Treprostinil didn’t work. A real surprise as there were multiple previous trials that did. They have about $650 million in free cash (more than a quarter of their market cap) and plan to do share buybacks. They will file for Freedom M oral treprostinil in 1Q 2012 and they cited a section of the FDA guidance whereby they should be able to get approval. They will get approval for IV treprostinil in Japan later this year. Sales continue to grow, but R&D will remain steady. So bottom line: You’re paying about 10 times earnings (after netting out the cash) for something that is growing 15-20%. Their drugs treat PAH – a life-threatening disease. You MUST be on these drugs. This is an attractive price for a stock that can grow independent of whether we are in a recession or not. Deutsche Bank and Oppenheimer both see $53 or more as fair value, though Oppenheimer writes, ‘given [today’s] disappointment, we don’t see meaningful near-term catalysts for UTHR to reach fair value.” ☞ I’m holding mine here. CVV Aristides’ Chris Brown: “CVV jumped yesterday after a positive write-up from an individual on Seeking Alpha. Last quarter’s earnings of 14 cents per share were better than the single analyst estimate of 9 cents, but lagged the prior (on a sequential basis) quarter of 22 cents (excluding an inventory write-down in the prior quarter). The company has had to hire a lot of people to support its incredible growth. Above $16, the stock now trades at more than 20 times my expectation of next 12 month earnings in the 60-70 cent range. . . . Graphene is an amazing substance, and CVV is the purest play on this substance. However, the easiest part of the trade—the great earnings ramp following the previously-announced new orders ramp—has largely played out. We have kept a small portion of our position as a long-term speculative bet on increasing uses for graphene, and the possibility of the company winning one or more large, game-changing orders. We are not usually growth-stock investors, so I don’t want to own a big position in any high multiple stock at a time when the regional manufacturing indices all seem to suggest we are entering a recession. It’s possible that the survey-oriented data are unduly pessimistic here, as a result of the debt ceiling debate, but they are the best August data we have so far, and, anecdotally, a couple of friends I trust have said businesses are pulling back.” ☞ Suggested here six months ago at $11.90 and in March at $10.10, CVV closed at $17.30 last night. In this market, it’s hard to argue with a 43%, let alone a 71%, gain. It could make sense to sell some, which would make you happy if it goes down sharply from here (buy it back?) and happy if one day it sells for twice today’s price (you didn’t sell it all!). I’m holding most of mine. *Except that in many respects, people with high assets and income tend to fare better under Democrat leadership because the stock market and economy tend to do so much better. –A.T. ** They seem to have meant a lot to much of the world, and may even had played a role in the Arab Spring, as suggested Tuesday. – A.T.
“The Most Important Election of Our Lifetime” No -- Really August 24, 2011March 24, 2017 My laundry basket fell off a chair and a bunch of too-be-foldeds spilled out onto the carpet. The earthquake of 2011. What’s next? Locusts? (No: Irene. Uh, oh.) TOO NEGATIVE Steve: “We are witnessing the end of empire. It makes you want to cry that, over decades, The Powers That Be have made us a massive debtor nation rather than a massive creditor one. No one on scene has the integrity, power, or guts to change that path, only hasten the decline with ‘kick the can.’ ” ☞ Well, President Clinton was able to halt that “over decades” thing. And it was not The Powers That Be that caused this mess so much as, simply, the leadership of Reagan, Bush, and Bush – and their allies in Congress and at Fox. So the solution is not despair or cynicism, it’s to work enthusiastically to keep as much political control as we can, because it’s fixable if people of good will and common sense are allowed to govern. Bill Clinton did it; against truculent opposition, Barack Obama is doing it. “THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIME” They say it about every election – “this is the most important election of our lifetime.” And then they acknowledge they say it about every election – “I know: we always say that.” And then they add, with conviction if a little sheepishly, “but it really is.” Which could only compute if elections were becoming progressively more important. And here’s the thing: they are. Or at least I think two arguments make that case. First is that the candidates seem to grow ever further apart. The more divergent their views, the more important the choice. Coke versus Pepsi? Who cares. Coke versus Pepto-Bismol? A more important choice. Second is that the human story, which used to creep glacially, races ever faster. After 5 billion years of planetary evolution, the sustainability of our little species comes down to the next few decades. As the pace speeds up, and the stakes get higher, so does the importance of getting it right. Andrew Jackson could not launch nuclear winter nor was he charged with preventing it. Environmental catastrophe? Not an issue until a few decades ago. Not to mention our fragile, globally connected economic system . . . or cyber attacks. When you have one Party whose candidates tend to believe in evolution and climate change . . . and another whose candidates hold prayer sessions to keep from taxing the rich to provide health insurance to the poor (because presumably that’s what Jesus would have done), it’s important which Party wins.
Libya August 23, 2011March 24, 2017 Never been there, know little about it. Yet I can’t help thinking the President’s Cairo ‘New Beginnings’ speech improved Mid-East perceptions of the U.S. and may even have had something to do with the Arab Spring. Can you imagine such a speech by Mitt Romney or Rick Perry? I can’t help thinking that the way the Obama team went after Bin Laden was more cost-effective than that of his predecessor. I can’t help thinking that our handling of Qaddafi and Libya has thus far worked out well. (Here‘s Steve Clemons’ analysis to that effect.) What if we had taken this Qaddafi approach with Saddam Hussein and Iraq? In any event, it prompted me to go back and read that Cairo speech, part of which I offer here: … So long as our relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace, those who promote conflict rather than the cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity. And this cycle of suspicion and discord must end. I’ve come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect, and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles — principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings. I do so recognizing that change cannot happen overnight. I know there’s been a lot of publicity about this speech, but no single speech can eradicate years of mistrust, nor can I answer in the time that I have this afternoon all the complex questions that brought us to this point. But I am convinced that in order to move forward, we must say openly to each other the things we hold in our hearts and that too often are said only behind closed doors. There must be a sustained effort to listen to each other; to learn from each other; to respect one another; and to seek common ground. As the Holy Koran tells us, “Be conscious of God and speak always the truth.” (Applause.) That is what I will try to do today — to speak the truth as best I can, humbled by the task before us, and firm in my belief that the interests we share as human beings are far more powerful than the forces that drive us apart. Now part of this conviction is rooted in my own experience. I’m a Christian, but my father came from a Kenyan family that includes generations of Muslims. As a boy, I spent several years in Indonesia and heard the call of the azaan at the break of dawn and at the fall of dusk. As a young man, I worked in Chicago communities where many found dignity and peace in their Muslim faith. As a student of history, I also know civilization’s debt to Islam. It was Islam — at places like Al-Azhar — that carried the light of learning through so many centuries, paving the way for Europe’s Renaissance and Enlightenment. It was innovation in Muslim communities — (applause) — it was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra; our magnetic compass and tools of navigation; our mastery of pens and printing; our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires; timeless poetry and cherished music; elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality. (Applause.) I also know that Islam has always been a part of America’s story. The first nation to recognize my country was Morocco. In signing the Treaty of Tripoli in 1796, our second President, John Adams, wrote, “The United States has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Muslims.” And since our founding, American Muslims have enriched the United States. They have fought in our wars, they have served in our government, they have stood for civil rights, they have started businesses, they have taught at our universities, they’ve excelled in our sports arenas, they’ve won Nobel Prizes, built our tallest building, and lit the Olympic Torch. And when the first Muslim American was recently elected to Congress, he took the oath to defend our Constitution using the same Holy Koran that one of our Founding Fathers — Thomas Jefferson — kept in his personal library. (Applause.) So I have known Islam on three continents before coming to the region where it was first revealed. That experience guides my conviction that partnership between America and Islam must be based on what Islam is, not what it isn’t. And I consider it part of my responsibility as President of the United States to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam wherever they appear. (Applause.) But that same principle must apply to Muslim perceptions of America. (Applause.) Just as Muslims do not fit a crude stereotype, America is not the crude stereotype of a self-interested empire. The United States has been one of the greatest sources of progress that the world has ever known. We were born out of revolution against an empire. We were founded upon the ideal that all are created equal, and we have shed blood and struggled for centuries to give meaning to those words — within our borders, and around the world. We are shaped by every culture, drawn from every end of the Earth, and dedicated to a simple concept: E pluribus unum — “Out of many, one.” Now, much has been made of the fact that an African American with the name Barack Hussein Obama could be elected President. (Applause.) But my personal story is not so unique. The dream of opportunity for all people has not come true for everyone in America, but its promise exists for all who come to our shores — and that includes nearly 7 million American Muslims in our country today who, by the way, enjoy incomes and educational levels that are higher than the American average. (Applause.) Moreover, freedom in America is indivisible from the freedom to practice one’s religion. That is why there is a mosque in every state in our union, and over 1,200 mosques within our borders. That’s why the United States government has gone to court to protect the right of women and girls to wear the hijab and to punish those who would deny it. (Applause.) So let there be no doubt: Islam is a part of America. And I believe that America holds within her the truth that regardless of race, religion, or station in life, all of us share common aspirations — to live in peace and security; to get an education and to work with dignity; to love our families, our communities, and our God. These things we share. This is the hope of all humanity. Of course, recognizing our common humanity is only the beginning of our task. Words alone cannot meet the needs of our people. These needs will be met only if we act boldly in the years ahead; and if we understand that the challenges we face are shared, and our failure to meet them will hurt us all. … … I know there has been controversy about the promotion of democracy in recent years, and much of this controversy is connected to the war in Iraq. So let me be clear: No system of government can or should be imposed by one nation by any other. That does not lessen my commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the people. Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn’t steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere. (Applause.) Now, there is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear: Governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments — provided they govern with respect for all their people. This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only when they’re out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others. (Applause.) So no matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who would hold power: You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. …
If It Had Been Hillary August 22, 2011March 24, 2017 WHEELTUG It seems to me there is a reasonable chance this will continue to inch forward to a good outcome. Here’s the latest; ten minutes for the optimists in the crowd. How you rate the chance of success – 50%? 2%? – is one piece of the valuation puzzle. Being an optimist, I’m up around 50%. What success would be worth – $500 million? $25 million? – is another. Being an optimist, I’m up around $500 million. And what the residual fall-out from a good outcome might be – other Borealis patented technology finding commercial application – is a third. Being an optimist . . . well, let’s not jinx it. With 5 million shares outstanding, and selling for $2.50 a share, Borealis, with its majority stake in WheelTug and all the rest (even the iron ore!), is currently valued at $12.5 million. Thus, BOREF still strikes me as a remarkable lottery ticket. Still, even an optimist sees a 50% chance we’ll lose everything. So don’t even think of buying it with money you can’t truly afford to lose. (And if you do buy a few shares, you absolutely must place a “limit” order. It’s so thinly traded that a “market” order to buy 2,000 shares could double the price.) Full disclosure for anyone new to this column: I have a comically large position in these shares. THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENCY . . . . . . is limited, as we all know. This piece in Salon elaborates. Knowing this, liberals like me should continue to offer criticism and suggestions . . . but also our support. WHAT IF IT HAD BEEN HILLARY? Jonathan Capehart applauds Rebecca Traister’s Sunday New York Times Magazine piece, which includes this nugget: . . . Alternate-universe President Hillary Clinton would have been competing with a dream. But in a funny way, Obama is, too. We forget, sometimes, that our government was designed to limit the powers of the president. Barack Obama walked into the White House in January 2009 with his own set of structural and strategic challenges: an economy in free fall; a 24-hour cable-news and talk-radio-fed culture eager to blare “crisis!” headlines every 12 minutes, making long-view evaluations of a presidency impossible; and most important, an obstinate Congress. On every major vote, from the stimulus to uncompromised health care reform, Obama needed 60 (not the historically customary 50) to get anything moving, a practical impossibility, thanks both to Republicans, whose stated goal was not to fix things but to keep the president from fixing anything, and to conservative Democrats, who made the party’s majority a false promise to begin with. . . . ☞ The truth is, anyone who “believes in” science . . . who believes the Clinton economy (which taxed the rich) was better than what has followed (despite the massive incentives to “the job creators”) . . . who believes we need to put the unemployed to work rebuilding our infrastructure and moving toward energy independence . . . who always thought it was shameful to be the only industrialized country to lack universal health care . . . who thinks women are equal to men and LGBT Americans should enjoy equal rights — any such person, it seems to me, should feel pretty good about all that President Obama has managed to do so far; and part ways with today’s Republicans, so intransigent they will not even allow Exxon’s tax subsidies to die.
Class Warfare August 19, 2011March 24, 2017 I don’t watch as much Fox as I should. Seeing these two Jon Stewart class warfare clips from last night – the first on Warren Buffett’s plan to tax the rich, the second on the right’s plan to tax the poor – was really a little depressing, even for a guy with the happy gene. These Fox guys really are bullies. Screw the meek! If they can’t raise a family of four on $20,000 a year and pay more tax, they should just get rich and pay 15% on their dividends and capital gains. Yes, that 15% is down from the 28% they paid under Ronald Reagan – second greatest man ever to walk the earth – but still too high. They’re job creators! Exhibit A: all the jobs created since the tax rates were cut. I know I sure wouldn’t try to get rich if I knew I’d have to fork over a Reagan-era or a Clinton-era share of my riches to this thing we should all want to diminish (the United States government). At those rates, what would be my motivation? Watch the clips. Wow.
The Answer Is So Obvious August 18, 2011March 24, 2017 Your thoughts on yesterday tomorrow, but today . . . INFRASTRUCTURE! In small part, by Dave Johnson for the Campaign for America’s Future: . . . Put millions of people to work repairing and rebuilding our public infrastructure—now. Do it while the nation has an abundance of idle skilled labor, unused construction and manufacturing capacity, and record low borrowing costs. Ignore the deficit-mongers. This is essential for addressing today’s jobs crisis and tomorrow’s economic growth needs. Plus, investing in infrastructure costs less than the cost of high levels of unemployment: the lower tax revenues, loss of business activity, and all of the forms of government spending resulting from slow growth and increased joblessness. . . . . . . Interviewed for a 60 Minutes 2010 story about Brazil’s economic success—including a 7 percent unemployment rate and 7.5 percent economic growth in 2010—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, “I have found out something amazing: the success of an elected official is in the art of doing what is obvious. It is what everyone knows needs to be done but some [in America, they are called Republicans – A.T.] insist on [not] doing.” HOW WE WIN Rick: “After reading your Warren Buffett excerpt Tuesday, I posted the link to his article on my Facebook wall. A very conservative friend messaged me later: ‘I threw up a little when I saw that you and my outspoken, communist, atheist, 59 your old cousin up in Madison, Wisconsin, both posted the same link. I was surprised how in agreement I am with what it said. Makes sense…but how…on earth…am I…in agreement…about something…like this…with MY COUSIN?!??’ I went on to explain to her that common sense transcends politics and religion and in fact, has very little to do with either. Another set of eyes opened!” ☞ Music to ears. MICHELE BACHMANN . . . . . . is not going to be the Republican nominee. So there’s no particular need to watch this Anderson Cooper clip. But it’s sure fun. NABI/TTNP Guru: “NABI announced they received the $5 million we expected this month. That places current cash/share firmly at $2.50 versus last night’s price of $1.73. I expect the board will look to merge NABI with a company with a pipeline. Meanwhile, TTNP released additional data. The Phase III hit on everything: reduced opiate-positive urines (the gold standard for approval), clinician assessment (what the doctor thinks), global severity of opioid dependence, overall patient improvement. Compared to oral Suboxone – the current gold standard – TTNP’s product was numerically superior, but statistically equivalent. In most cases, the side effects of TTNP’s product were numerically less than for Suboxone and often the same as placebo. The data simply could not be better! The TTNP lead investigator from St. Luke’s Roosevelt Hospital in New York said that by the end of the trial patients were beating down the door to get access. He said doctors will adopt this product because it gives them a medical procedure to do and then lets them focus on the psychological aspects of addiction rather than the medical ones. They will be able to treat more patients. The only negative is the TTNP will probably have to raise money before the end of the year. I still think they could find a buyer for the company.”