Gas Mileage and Fascism May 9, 2005January 18, 2017 There are no Brussels sprouts in Holland. Brussels, it turns out, is not in Holland. Like Rick, who moved to Casablanca ‘for the waters’ (‘but, Monsieur Rick, we are in the desert – there are no waters’), ‘I was misinformed.’ There is hail, however. And then the next minute it’s sunny (but breezy) and then a light spritz, sunny, cloudy, spitting rain, sunny clear blue skies, cloudy . . . all this in 20 minutes. There are licensed coffee shops that do sell coffee, but that’s not why they need licences. The nicest, nicest people, all of whom speak English. Gets dark around ten at night. You can almost see the North pole. Now, back to business. As usual, I learn more from you than you from me: GAS MILEAGE Peter Kaczowka: ‘Wind resistance is proportional to the square of an object’s velocity. (Simple explanation: if you go twice as fast, you hit twice as many air molecules, each at twice the speed; hence four times the resistance). (70 * 70) / (55 * 55) is 1.61; so wind resistance is 1.61 times higher at 70 than at 55, not double. Still, wind resistance is the main drag on a vehicle at high speeds, which is why a large vehicle cannot get good highway mileage. In general, hybrid autos get no better highway mileage than efficient non-hybrids. I recently drove from Massachusetts to Florida (not using the air conditioning) at an average 75 mph and got 41 mpg in my 2002 Saturn SL1 with manual transmission. It’s EPA-rated at 40 mpg highway. I bought it used because Saturn no longer makes a model with that high mileage. We don’t need hybrids; we need Detroit to stop making large and overpowered vehicles. The Saturn SL1 at 100 horsepower is more powerful than the 80 horsepower VW GTI that I owned 10 years ago. The GTI was considered fast at the time. Oh – and my SL1 was $12,500 new; compare that to the Prius.’ ☞ Go, Saturn! But for stop-and-go city and suburban driving, which I have to assume accounts for most of the gasoline consumption, we need hybrids. Los Angeles freeways alone must account for 80% of the nation’s gasoline consumption, with the Long Island expressway accounting for the rest. Not to mention that one spot on Storrow Drive where ‘if you lived here, you’d be home now.’ Noah Young: ‘Hybrid cars are great, but why not just cut out the fossil fuels altogether and spend WAY less on a car that will last much longer? Visit biodiesel.org . . . and Google ‘diesel straight vegetable oil‘ and discover the world of filling up at restaurants.’ CHEAP READS Noah Stern: ‘Fetchbook.info lets you to enter a title, author, ISBN or key word and then surveys many websites to see who’s got the book, presenting the results in ascending price order.’ FASCISM There are a number of characteristics of fascism . . . this site suggests 14. One is a sort of merging of corporate and state control. Not to suggest that Halliburton has any special ties to the White House, or that industry is now writing its own regulations, or any of that liberal claptrap. Still, I was bemused to see this over the weekend: EXCLUSIVE: White House caught peddling corporate invitations A source just emailed me a message being sent out officially from the White House urging people to attend corporate sponsored events that trumpet the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Specifically, the White House is using taxpayer resources to urge people to attend events being put on by Fedex, Citigroup, and Western Union to promote this corporate-written free trade deal (you can see the official invitation being blasted out by the White House on my site in Word format – notice the corporate logos). Most brazenly, the White House asks that invitees RSVP directly to the White House – as if there is now no distinction between these corporations . . . and the White House. It’s one thing for the White House to lobby for an awful trade deal like this. But it is a whole new low to have taxpayer dollars being used to directly promote corporate-sponsored events, essentially eliminating the line between business and government. One of the characteristics of fascism is doubtless to bully and berate anyone who raises the specter of fascism. So just bear in mind that if you start sending me bullying e-mails berating me for this item, well . . . don’t. I have enormous faith in America and Americans. We will not go fascist. But it never hurts for true patriots to be vigilant. Tomorrow: the search for Prada wooden shoes. (Actually, tomorrow may have to be an Andyday, for logistical reasons.)
Astonishing May 6, 2005March 2, 2017 Off to Europe to see just why Brussels sprouts are no longer available on my supermarket shelves. Next week’s posts may be erratic or heavily accënted. My Boeing 777 was tugged back from the gate in the traditional way. According to Borealis, “We have completed our side of the WheelTug contract. The next round of the testing process will take some time, and any announcements about the results will be made either by the Boeing Company, or jointly by Boeing and Chorus Motors plc.” I live for this day. Unless the news is bad, in which case – keep hope alive! – I live for perpetual postponement. Astonishing thing: My Blackberry works in London. Astonishing thing: A few hours ago, when I wrote the rest of this, I was in Miami. Now I am in London. Kings, sheiks, popes and even the great Genghis Khan himself (not to mention Croesus) could not have imagined such a thing. Astonishing thing: The train from Heathrow zips into Paddington station in 15 minutes. Cabs are waiting to take you to the Scotch Shop to pick up the key your friend left you to his flat. Astonishing thing: It’s sunny! I am so astonished, I am going back to sleep. Tomorrow: Amsterdam! INTERESTING. WHICH WOULD YOU RATHER? Kathi Derevan: “I recently saw one of my favorite authors, Jane Smiley, interviewed at UCLA. She has expressed her disdain for the free market economy, and was asked did she not profit greatly from it, as she is a very successful writer. Her comment was close to what I would say if I could have thought of it – that she would rather be middle class in a country with a thriving middle class than rich in a country where only the rich thrive.” ☞ We are thriving, alright. My marginal federal tax bracket is now 15%. (Like many of the most fortunate, my income derives from dividends and capital gains, not wages.) Our maid’s marginal bracket is higher. Even so – and astonishingly (this is really astonishing) – the Republican Party works to widen the gap still further. It fights to eliminate the estate tax on billionaires, while fighting, also, to make sure the minimum wage (adjusted for inflation) falls ever lower. Even more astonishingly, they claim Jesus as their guide. THE EXIT POLLS DO NOT DEMONSTRATE THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN Yes, efforts were almost surely undertaken to suppress the Democratic vote. Yes, reforms cry out to be made. (That anyone would accept voting machines without an auditable paper trail may be the most astonishing thing of all.) But as to whether the 2004 exit polls prove a stolen election, click here for further persuasive argument that they do not. Even some strong critics of the election agree. One small snip: “I believe your election was inexcusably riggable and may well have been rigged,” writes Liddle. “It was also inexcusably unauditable. I am convinced that there was real and massive voter suppression in Ohio, and that it was probably deliberate. I think the recount in Ohio was a sham, and the subversion of the recount is in itself suggestive of coverup of fraud. I think Kenneth Blackwell should be jailed. However . . . I don’t believe the exit polls in themselves are evidence for fraud.” ☞ Yesterday, the DNC announced formation of a National Democratic Lawyers Council to formalize the network of 17,000 volunteer lawyers and law students who helped restrain abuses last time. Separately, smaller groups are working to push for systemic reform. Stay tuned. The next sound you hear on this page, if the Dutch know from wifi, will be the clicker clacker of little wooden feet. Have a great weekend.
One Wonders Two Things (Hey! Today is 05/05/05! Triple nickels!) May 5, 2005March 2, 2017 But first . . . SIX-TOED DEMAND CURVES John Padavic: ‘I joined audible.com on your recommendation and would like to recommend one of its latest selections, Freakonomics. Maybe you read the New York Times Magazine article on the connections between Roe v Wade and the decrease in crime in the 90s. Freakonomics is about all kinds of interesting connections.’ ☞ Yes! I saw the author with Jon Stewart. PROPERLY INFLATED TIRES Brent Stapleton: ‘Since the wide-ranging topics on your website have now included hybrid vehicles, why not point your readers to greenhybrid.com? Good objective information not only on the cars themselves, but also how to improve mileage. I particularly recommend this page, which is written for the Honda Civic Hybrid but should improve results on any vehicle.’ ☞ One tip from that page: ‘Wind resistance roughly doubles between 55 mph and 70 mph.’ (So I never go more than 55 mph in a 35 mph zone.) And now . . . THE MINUTES FROM MI-6 You know MI-6. Mrs. Moneypenny’s outfit. Q’s outfit. James‘s outfit. Shaken, not stirred. Well, it seems the Iraq war was trumped up after all. Not to say we don’t all hope the Iraqi people will overcome the insurgents and learn to live together in peace. But in case you missed this: “Intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy.” Never in our wildest dreams did we think we would see those words in black and white-and beneath a SECRET stamp, no less. For three years now, we in Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity have been saying that the CIA and its British counterpart, MI-6, were ordered by their countries’ leaders to “fix facts” to “justify” an unprovoked war on Iraq. More often than not, we have been greeted with stares of incredulity. It has been a hard learning-that folks tend to believe what they want to believe. As long as our evidence, however abundant and persuasive, remained circumstantial, it could not compel belief. It simply is much easier on the psyche to assent to the White House spin machine blaming the Iraq fiasco on bad intelligence than to entertain the notion that we were sold a bill of goods. Well, you can forget circumstantial. Thanks to an unauthorized disclosure by a courageous whistleblower, the evidence now leaps from official documents . . . Blair does not dispute the authenticity of the document. . . The discussion at 10 Downing St. on July 23, 2002 calls to mind the first meeting of George W. Bush’s National Security Council (NSC) on Jan. 30, 2001, at which the president made it clear that toppling Saddam Hussein sat atop his to-do list, according to then-Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neil, who was there. O’Neil was taken aback that there was no discussion of why it was necessary to “take out” Saddam. Rather, after CIA Director George Tenet showed a grainy photo of a building in Iraq that he said might be involved in producing chemical or biological agents, the discussion proceeded immediately to which Iraqi targets might be best to bomb. Again, neither O’Neil nor the other participants asked the obvious questions. Another NSC meeting two days later included planning for dividing up Iraq’s oil wealth. . . . ☞ And from the memo itself if you don’t have time to read the whole thing: C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action. ☞ One wonders two things: How would history be different if then Governor Bush had told the electorate that within days of his Inauguration he would begin planning for war in Iraq? (Instead, his theme was a humble foreign policy.)* Why was there no mention of this memo on last night’s network news?** * I know, I know – President Gore would have surrendered to Al-Qaeda the way that other Harvard liberal, FDR, surrendered to Hitler or that other Harvard liberal, JFK, surrendered to Khrushchev. But you know what? I don’t buy it. I think President Gore would have taken seriously the CIA threats that Bush ignored – from his very first briefing, January 7, 2001 – and would have killed Bin Laden in time to avert 9/11 . . . or, failing that, would have gone into Afghanistan and killed Bin Laden before diverting 10,000 Special Forces to the Iraqi oil fields. ** I watched both NBC and ABC last night and the night before and neither one mentioned this memo. Much reporting on Paula Abdul, however.
Versus May 4, 2005January 18, 2017 VERSUS VERSUS VERSES The word versus is used more frequently than the word verses, which are both used a lot more frequently than ‘curses’ but not nearly so frequently as ‘nurses.’ Hearses, you may be relieved to know, is almost never used – the 73,138th most commonly used word out of 86,800 on the list, coming just before ‘jotter’ (if this site is to be believed) and just after ‘eetpu’ (which is why I have my doubts). The singular hearse, understandably, well outranks its plural, and rehearse outranks them both. (But could it possibly be true that the next most common word after rehearse is ‘endogenous’?) Good outranks evil, #116 to #3274, as it well should; in (#6) is far more in than out (#65); but getting to yes (#146) is a lot harder than getting to no (#51). The overused ‘very’ is somehow only #84. I outranks you, #11 to #14. (I does?) This is all derived from a British database, which may (and I stress may, #77) account for EETPU, a British labor union. Certainly it accounts for theatre (#1742) trouncing theater (#44,393). Funny folk, those Brits. (Churchill, #5664; Roosevelt, #13,660.) (Thanks to Bryan #8054 Norcross #70,185 for this one.) PRIUS VERSUS CIVIC Frank Schrader: ‘The Prius is a great hybrid, but Toyota is hardly a ‘green’ automaker. For a little background on that look here. My choice would be the Honda Civic hybrid. The last time I had my car serviced, that’s the loaner I got – and it’s a pretty nice car.’ MYM VERSUS QUICKEN AND MONEY Mike Mangino: ‘Do you own the copyright for Managing Your Money? If so, have you considered making the software available as an Open Source product? Those of us who are interested in something better than Quicken may be willing to support and improve it for free.’ ☞ Sorry – I don’t own the copyright and don’t have a copy of the source code. Mike Albert: ‘I used Quicken for about a year before installation of a required upgrade horribly broke my Quicken bill paying. I won’t bore you with all the details, but several payments that showed as paid in Quicken that were not. Other things went wrong too. My credit rating almost took a hit. I switched to MS Money, starting out with a figurative chip on my shoulder because of my bad Quicken experience, and ended up thinking it’s great. The help is marvelous, and I can configure it endlessly to make it look and behave the way I like. I can’t recommend it enough.’ Will Galway: ‘Those few of your readers who use Linux (this might also apply to Apple users with OS-X), might want to check out GnuCash. It’s free, developed by a community of developers. I can’t claim to have used it seriously, but it deserves a look. If any of your users DO start using it, maybe they can send you a further review.’ And finally, for the two of you who could conceivably still have any interest . . . MIRR VERSUS IRR (BUT EITHER WAY, IT’S STILL JUST $1 A BOTTLE) Daniel: ‘First, let me say that you are correctly computing the annualized ‘Internal Rate of Return’ (IRR) as 103%, which compounded weekly over a year gives an effective IRR of 177%. The problem is, what the heck is the IRR and does it mean anything useful? By definition, the IRR is the interest rate which, when applied as both the finance rate and the reinvestment rate, gives a net present value (NPV) of zero. In other words, if you borrow money at 177% to invest in your case of wine, and you invest all of your saved weekly proceeds (as you save them) at 177%, then you will break even buying wine by the case. But while I’m sure we can find plenty of folks willing to loan you the cash at 177%, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a place to earn 177% on your saved cash each week. (Click here for a lucid description of the limitations of the IRR.) Fortunately, our heroes at Microsoft have given us an alternative function, the MIRR (modified internal rate of return), which allows us to specify our cost of borrowing and our reinvestment rate when we plug values into Excel. If we assume that we’re financing this whole exercise from our checkbook with 0% borrowing cost and that we earn nothing on the saved cash, then we discover that the annualized MIRR for wine by the case is 55%, which compounded weekly over a year’s period of time gives an effective rate of return 73%. So, humbly, I submit that 73% is the practical, realistic answer; 177% is correct in a mathematical, hypothetical world which is not appropriate to this case (of wine).’ ☞ I’ll take it. Although I would guess we can do better than earning nothing on those saved dollars. We can, for example, earn perhaps 40% by buying other things in bulk, when they’re on sale. So perhaps the true rate of return falls someplace between these two. It’s still only $52 a year you save buying your wine (in our example) by the case; but if you change your habits to do a lot of your shopping this way – not just wine – it actually can amount to something meaningful, when compounded over a lifetime.
Surgery May 3, 2005January 18, 2017 WILL WE BE ABLE TO COMPETE? Marilyn Perry: ‘Re the Tom Friedman column yesterday, I work in clinical research at a top level university. Recently we had an opening for an entry level lab technician. We advertised for a student completing their second year of college majoring in biology or chemistry. This position is very flexible enabling the person to gain valuable experience while finishing school. Within a week, we had 30 applications and all but 1 were foreign students – all pre-med, all with 3.8-4.2 GPA’s. Where are the American students you ask? Well, I called the professor whom our top choice cited as a reference and was surprised to find out the majority of pre-med students in the top 10% are NOT American students.’ ☞ Is it possible that after decades of wealthy foreigners’ coming here for the best medical treatment, the flow of commerce may begin to reverse? It will be a long time before we go abroad for higher quality; but we seem already to have begun going abroad for lower cost. SAVE BIG ON SURGERY You may have seen this on ’60 Minutes’: Bumrungrad Hospital, a luxurious place that claims to have more foreign patients than any other hospital in the world. It’s like a United Nations of patients here, and they’re cared for by more than 500 doctors, most with international training. Bumrungrad’s not the only foreign hospital Americans are going to, either. But it sounds pretty good to me – like a five-star hotel with registered nurses instead of orderlies – and it saved one American $88,000 on the cost of a quintuple by-pass . . . $12,000 instead of an estimated $100,000. One would think long and hard before undergoing surgery far from home (or close to home, for that matter). But this just makes the point that the world is ‘flattening,’ in Tim Friedman’s phrase, and that binge drinking alone may not assure today’s college kids a bright future. (But kids! Don’t let this drive you to drink! You can make a bright future! Stay in school!)
Are We Lagging Technologically? May 2, 2005March 2, 2017 But first . . . The two columnists I try never to miss: Paul Krugman and Tom Friedman. Somehow, I missed this March 27 Friedman column. In case you did, too . . . Geo-Greening by Example March 27, 2004 The New York Times by Thomas L. Friedman How will future historians explain it? How will they possibly explain why President George W. Bush decided to ignore the energy crisis staring us in the face and chose instead to spend all his electoral capital on a futile effort to undo the New Deal, by partially privatizing Social Security? We are, quite simply, witnessing one of the greatest examples of misplaced priorities in the history of the U.S. presidency. “Ah, Friedman, but you overstate the case.” No, I understate it. Look at the opportunities our country is missing – and the risks we are assuming – by having a president and vice president who refuse to lift a finger to put together a “geo-green” strategy that would marry geopolitics, energy policy and environmentalism. By doing nothing to lower U.S. oil consumption, we are financing both sides in the war on terrorism and strengthening the worst governments in the world. That is, we are financing the U.S. military with our tax dollars and we are financing the jihadists – and the Saudi, Sudanese and Iranian mosques and charities that support them – through our gasoline purchases. The oil boom is also entrenching the autocrats in Russia and Venezuela, which is becoming Castro’s Cuba with oil. By doing nothing to reduce U.S. oil consumption we are also setting up a global competition with China for energy resources, including right on our doorstep in Canada and Venezuela. Don’t kid yourself: China’s foreign policy today is very simple – holding on to Taiwan and looking for oil. Finally, by doing nothing to reduce U.S. oil consumption we are only hastening the climate change crisis, and the Bush officials who scoff at the science around this should hang their heads in shame. And it is only going to get worse the longer we do nothing. Wired magazine did an excellent piece in its April issue about hybrid cars, which get 40 to 50 miles to the gallon with very low emissions. One paragraph jumped out at me: “Right now, there are about 800 million cars in active use. By 2050, as cars become ubiquitous in China and India, it’ll be 3.25 billion. That increase represents … an almost unimaginable threat to our environment. Quadruple the cars means quadruple the carbon dioxide emissions – unless cleaner, less gas-hungry vehicles become the norm.” All the elements of what I like to call a geo-green strategy are known: We need a gasoline tax that would keep pump prices fixed at $4 a gallon, even if crude oil prices go down. At $4 a gallon (premium gasoline averages about $6 a gallon in Europe), we could change the car-buying habits of a large segment of the U.S. public, which would make it profitable for the car companies to convert more of their fleets to hybrid or ethanol engines, which over time could sharply reduce our oil consumption. We need to start building nuclear power plants again. The new nuclear technology is safer and cleaner than ever. “The risks of climate change by continuing to rely on hydrocarbons are much greater than the risks of nuclear power,” said Peter Schwartz, chairman of Global Business Network, a leading energy and strategy consulting firm. “Climate change is real and it poses a civilizational threat that [could] transform the carrying capacity of the entire planet.” And we need some kind of carbon tax that would move more industries from coal to wind, hydro and solar power, or other, cleaner fuels. The revenue from these taxes would go to pay down the deficit and the reduction in oil imports would help to strengthen the dollar and defuse competition for energy with China. It’s smart geopolitics. It’s smart fiscal policy. It is smart climate policy. Most of all – it’s smart politics! Even evangelicals are speaking out about our need to protect God’s green earth. “The Republican Party is much greener than George Bush or Dick Cheney,” remarked Mr. Schwartz. “There is now a near convergence of support on the environmental issue. Look at how popular [Arnold] Schwarzenegger, a green Republican, is becoming because of what he has done on the environment in California.” Imagine if George Bush declared that he was getting rid of his limousine for an armor-plated Ford Escape hybrid, adopting a geo-green strategy and building an alliance of neocons, evangelicals and greens to sustain it. His popularity at home – and abroad – would soar. The country is dying to be led on this. Instead, he prefers to squander his personal energy trying to take apart the New Deal and throwing red meat to right-to-life fanatics. What a waste of a presidency. How will future historians explain it? And now . . . THE BEIBEL TELLS ME SO Ed Biebel: ‘At a time when America is beginning to show signs that it is technologically lagging, is it really wise to deny the best and the brightest a seat at the table because they gave $250 to the DNC?’ ☞ As treasurer of the DNC I can tell you with complete objectivity: hell no. Here, from Time, is a bit of what Ed refers to: Sunday, Apr. 24, 2005 The Inter-American Telecommunication Commission meets three times a year in various cities across the Americas to discuss such dry but important issues as telecommunications standards and spectrum regulations. But for this week’s meeting in Guatemala City, politics has barged onto the agenda. At least four of the two dozen or so U.S. delegates . . . have been bumped by the White House because they supported John Kerry’s 2004 campaign. . . . And on the nerve Ed touched about signs we are beginning to lag technologically, I finally got a ride in a Prius – wow! I want one! (But because I drive only about 1,000 miles a year, it seems to me the best thing I can do environmentally is not trade my 1997 Grand Cherokee, bought used, cheap, from a neighbor who drove it 30,000 miles a year, for a Prius that someone else, who drives 20 times as far as I do, is on the waiting list to buy.) And did you see that Airbus 380? Wow! And what are we to make of the notion that our kids go to school 180 days a year, while our competition’s kids go to school 240 days a year? Can this bode well for our relative prosperity 20 and 40 years from now? Or of the more recent Tom Friedman column in which he quoted Bill Gates – ‘American high schools are obsolete . . . [E]ven when they are working exactly as designed, they cannot teach our kids what they need to know today.’ Friedman translated Gates’s comments this way: ‘If we don’t fix American education, I will not be able to hire your kids.’ And he noted that ‘neither Tom DeLay not Bill Frist called a late-night session of Congress – or even a daytime one – to discuss what Mr. Gates was saying. They were too busy pandering to those Americans who don’t even believe in evolution.’ Which perhaps brings me to the last bad sign of late – according to an NBC news poll, about 65% of us do not believe in evolution. Have I mentioned frequently enough that any equity portfolio should include international index funds as well as domestic?
The Link That Explains It All April 29, 2005March 1, 2017 But first . . . two math errors of which I stand accused. I am guilty of one of them, so let’s start with the other. Thanks to the estimable Paul Lerman for pointing me to the May issue of Discover Magazine, which includes this item: Basic arithmetic mistakes abound in print, in textbooks and in the popular media alike. Edward J. Barbeau, professor emeritus of mathematics at the University of Toronto, exposed the following miscalculations in his book Mathematical Fallacies, Flaws and Flimflam (Mathematical Association of America, 2000). Can you spot where the numbers go astray? 1. Andrew Tobias, in the May 17, 1993, issue of Time magazine, offered this financial advice: Buy staples in bulk when they’re on sale. . . . Consider a family that buys one bottle of wine each week. With the 10% discount many stores offer on wine by the case, they would be saving 10% every twelve weeks-more than 40% a year, tax free and largely risk free. [This is a miscalculation because] the 10 percent savings does not accumulate. If it did, then in three years the family would have saved more than 100 percent. The correct statement is that the family continues to save 10 percent of the total cost as they buy more wine. Proud as I am to be first on any list, I did want to offer here the letter to the editor I hope Discover may print: Dear Discover: In your May issue, you cite an example of sloppy thinking from Edward J. Barbeau’s book. He quotes a snippet from my May 17, 1993 TIME column . . . << Consider a family that buys one bottle of wine each week. With the 10% discount many stores offer on wine by the case, they would be saving 10% every twelve weeks-more than 40% a year, tax free and largely risk free. >> . . . and makes the point that, no, you are still only saving 10% on each bottle of wine. Quite true. But in fact you ARE earning more than 40%, compounded annually, on the cash required to change your buying habits this way. There wasn’t room in the TIME column to make this adequately clear — my fault — but for the record: At $10 a bottle, you would save $52 over the course of the year by buying this way. And the most extra cash you would have to tie up to achieve that return would be $98 — the initial $108 case less the $10 you would have spent that week anyway. To “earn” $52 on a $98 investment, I am certain Professor Barbeau would agree, is to earn well in excess of 40%. The actual rate of return works out to 177% (although it’s still just a lousy $1 a bottle) . . . as detailed in my own book, THE ONLY INVESTMENT GUIDE YOU’LL EVER NEED. Thanks for the opportunity to clarify this point! Andrew Tobias (I went ahead and ordered Professor Barbeau’s book and, well, I’m not just in it, this example leads the book, taking up most of Page 1. I don’t fault the good Professor for this – we have e-mailed, and he says he’ll consider my response for subsequent printings, should there be any. But this is not exactly how I hope to be remembered. [I hope to be remembered for my recipes.]) MATH ERROR – RE KANSAS Daniel: ‘One correction that I’d note is that the article seems to state that the boys were somewhat more than 36 months apart in age. [When I saw that one was almost 15 and the other had until the week before been 17, my creaking brain saw that as almost 15 and 17 – two years apart – plus a little. Of course, it would be three years plus a little. Sorry!] But not withstanding that fact, what’s wrong with these people? Ignoring the absurd injustice, are they so blinded by hatred that they are willing to shunt so much of their resources into this punishment? Last I read, confining somebody in a place like Ellsworth costs somewhere around $25K per year (ignoring the capital costs of building the place) – and 17 x $25K = $425,000. Nearly half a million dollars to wreck the life of a boy who started to engage in sex with another boy and stopped when asked to stop. I just don’t get it.’ ☞ Another of you not only got it, but wondered how I could ‘condone pedophilia’ by suggesting 17 years in prison was too harsh. People have very different and strongly held views, that’s for sure. But enough of that. Let’s move on to the war of civilizations. IT’S ALL EXPLAINED . . . HERE Seriously. You want to know what Bin Laden is thinking, and the dynamic that’s been driving the world and our lives for the last few years? And what will happen next? No one knows for sure, of course. But you could do worse than to read this analysis from the Daily KOS. Have a great weekend.
The Prince and the Pauper April 28, 2005March 1, 2017 I will get to my exclusive transcript of the President’s chat with Crown Prince Abdullah, and to an important cinnamon update. But first . . . WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS? He was twenty-odd months older than the boy with whom – both agree – he engaged briefly in consensual oral sex, and as a result he is now five years into a 17-year prison term. How much fear and hatred is there in Kansas? Can this possibly be the doctrine of compassion and forgiveness that underlie Christianity? Or of the ‘don’t tread on me’ Common Sense that underlie America’s dedication to liberty and the pursuit of happiness? I guess the boy was lucky we have not yet begun beheading transgressors. Salon has the story. Which may soon be unavailable in libraries in Alabama. BANNED IN BIRMINGHAM, OFFED IN ORLANDO An African-American venture capitalist writes: ‘Yesterday in Alabama, State representative George Allen introduced a bill banning all books in public schools and public libraries that were written by gays or lesbians. He had a complete list with writers like Truman Capote, Gore Vidal, and YOU!!!!!! On the same day, Jeb Bush signed into law in the State of Florida a bill that allows people to shoot to death anyone they feel is threatening them with serious bodily harm. For example, people like me – black men represent over 60% of all people killed with guns during a homicide.’ ☞ Yes, but who could possibly feel threatened once they know the other guy is very likely packing a concealed weapon? The Alabama bill will presumably never pass. But the Florida bill not only passed – it was signed into law by the President’s brother. THE DEATH OF MERIT Sam Spade: ‘As per your April 22 column, note the death of the meritocracy, as laid out by The Economist here. [‘A growing body of evidence suggests that the meritocratic ideal is in trouble in America. Income inequality is growing to levels not seen since the 1880s. But social mobility is not increasing at anything like the same pace. The United States risks calcifying into a European-style class-based society.’] I fail to understand why any decent American would not want to curtail this trend.’ ☞ Well, George W. Bush would not have gotten into Yale or the Texas Air National Guard or Harvard Business School on merit, so the trend has worked out okay for him, and he is dead set on accelerating it – most dramatically by eliminating the inheritance tax. Welcome to the Republican plutocracy. The connection here, as any reader of Thomas Frank knows, is that the good people of Kansas, Alabama and Florida – though barely making ends meet – vote to enrich the wealthiest of the elite, while thinking what they are doing is protecting their children from liberal elitists who look French. [That Thomas Frank link is to his current piece in the New York Review of Books. Not a bad proxy for those who lack the time to read his entire book.] WEIGHING YOUR CINNAMON Tom: ‘With this type of thing, it is always best to read the original paper. The data suggest that the smallest dose (1 gram or less per day) is the most effective in lowering LDL, triglycerides and blood sugar. The large decrease in triglyceride levels is especially notable since recent work has shown that the ratio of triglyceride to HDL level is the most accurate indicator of future cardiovascular and silent inflammation problems. Ideally the TGL/HDL ratio should be around 1. If greater than 6, the chance of a heart attack/stroke goes up 16-fold. A high cholesterol level, in contrast, only doubles the chance of a heart attack (per Barry Sears’ new book, The Anti-Inflammation Zone). Because the effect of cinnamon seems to last for some time (an almost unbelievable 20 days in this study), you probably don’t have to eat it daily. Perhaps a weekly dose of ½ teaspoon would be sufficient? It apparently works by making the cells more receptive to insulin.” IF THE CINNAMON FAILS TO WORK Ed Lewis: This comes from one of my very most conservative friends down south: LIVING WILL I, _________________________ (fill in the blank), being of sound mind and body, do not wish to be kept alive indefinitely by artificial means. Under no circumstances should my fate be put in the hands of politicians who couldn’t pass ninth-grade biology if their lives depended on it. If a reasonable amount of time passes and I fail to sit up and ask for a cold beer, it should be presumed that I won’t do so ever again. When such a determination is reached, I hereby instruct my spouse, children and attending physicians to pull the plug, reel in the tubes and call it a day. Under no circumstances shall the members of the Legislature enact a special law to keep me on life-support machinery. It is my wish that these boneheads mind their own damn business, and pay attention instead to the health, education and future of the millions of Americans who aren’t in a permanent coma and who nonetheless may be in need of nourishment. Under no circumstances shall any politicians butt into this case. I don’t care how many fundamentalist votes they’re trying to scrounge for their run for the presidency in 2008, it is my wish that they play politics with someone else’s life and leave me alone to die in peace. I couldn’t care less if a hundred religious zealots send e-mails to legislators in which they pretend to care about me. I don’t know these people, and I certainly haven’t authorized them to preach and/or crusade on my behalf. They should mind their own damn business, too. If any of my family goes against my wishes and turns my case into a political cause, I hereby promise to come back from the grave and make his or her existence a living hell. And now, finally . . . THE PRINCE AND THE PAUPER Herewith – a true scoop for this column – dialog I was able to pick up with my Woot! Magic Ears by aiming them toward Crawford, Texas Monday. GWB: These oil prices are a real problem. $$$: Yes, I know. My family is making an extra $300 million a day. We are very distressed. GWB: Yes, I know. All my friends come out of the oil business, and they’re rolling in it. Very, very bad. Heh-heh. $$$: Yes, very bad. GWB: Listen, do you think you could help meet all this new Chinese demand by pumping another couple of million barrels a day? $$$: That will never be enough to satisfy them – there are a billion of them, you know. GWB: A billion? Really? Well, no one’s asking you to be a saint. Saint AbDULLah. But couldn’t you juice up production another couple million bbl a day? I love that. “Bbl.” Like bubbles. Nicknamed a poodle “bubbles” once. Bubbles. Heh-heh. $$$: We could achieve another couple of million barrels – GWB: “Bubbas” $$$: – but at today’s prices that would be another $110 million a day for our family, and we are not sure where to put it all. We are pumping it almost as fast as you’re borrowing it. GWB: No way! We’re borrowing $700 billion this year. Bubillion! He-heh. AbDULLah. Bubba-dubba. DUBYA! Heh-heh. $$$: Oh — $700 billion? So $2 billion a day? Well, I stand corrected. You’re going broke way faster than we’re getting rich. And that’s saying something, Mr. President. GWB: Heh-heh $$$: Are you getting help? GWB: Dick made two million last year, saved $46,000 on the TAX CUTS. Economy’s humming. I saved $26,000. $$$: Well, but . . . GWB: We get a house a plane and a chopper. Love sayin’ that: a chopper. Let’s go out onto the lawn and look all serious and frowny and do our photo thing.
Pills for Your Porc and the Cinnamon Play (Really) April 27, 2005March 1, 2017 Clare: ‘I’ve been taking glucosamine with chondroitin for five or six years (on a maintenance dose after the first year). I started because my dog was so much better after starting it. I’m a zoo docent, and some of our animals are arthritic – and take glucosamine. One particular favorite of mine was a prehensile-tailed tree porcupine who was 17 years old, the oldest in captivity. (She died at 18, so I guess we now know how long they can live in captivity!) After starting her glucosamine with chondroitin, Julia was climbing back up her branches and being much more active. I’d tell this tale to grandparent-looking visitors and you’d be amazed how many responded that g-c had helped them, too. Although some people can’t take it, it’s been great for me and the animals.’ Frank Schrader: ‘If you take a blood thinner or a daily aspirin (of any strength), only take chondroitin under a doctor’s supervision. Its molecular structure is similar to that of the blood-thinner heparin, and the interaction could potentially cause excessive bleeding. Of course it’s possible to get glucosamine without chodroitin.’ Peter Kaczowka: ‘Mike Mattes wrote you that glucosamine with chondroitin worked for him but that (as a diabetic) he found that it sent his blood sugar levels out of control and he had to stop. Mike (and everyone else) should be aware that cinnamon (!) can significantly lower blood sugar levels, triglycerides and LDLs. I put a teaspoon in my coffee every morning, although the last gulp is pretty slimy. I read about this a few months ago in Science News (excellent weekly!). Google ‘cinnamon blood sugar’ and you’ll find many articles, including this one: Initially the scientists were testing the effects of a variety of commonly eaten foods on blood sugar. During these tests they found that apple pie flavoured with cinnamon defied expectations that blood sugar would increase and instead decreased. This finding led to more research into the cause of this unexpected result and into the properties of cinnamon. Interestingly, not only did blood sugar levels decrease in all the groups taking cinnamon while there were no significant changes in the groups on placebos, triglyceride and LDL (‘bad’) cholesterol also decreased in the groups on cinnamon. The reductions were: blood sugar – 23% to 30% triglyceride – 13% to 26% LDL (‘bad’) cholesterol – 10% to 24% ‘Your doctor and the drug companies, will never tell you about this because (says NewsTarget.com): Most U.S. researchers aren’t interested in looking at cinnamon simply because it doesn’t pay. Despite its innate healing characteristics, you can’t patent cinnamon. Therefore, no profits. ‘I searched in vain for a ‘pure play’ on cinnamon, although there appear to be cinnamon futures sold in India.’ THE NUCLEAR OPTION AGAIN (NO, THE REAL ONE THIS TIME) If you missed yesterday’s video, click here. Otherwise . . . Thanks to Peter Ludemann for forwarding this interesting piece by Stewart Brand. Brand, Sixties activists and environmentalists will remember, edited the Whole Earth Catalog. Is the population explosion is taking care of itself? He says it is. Is it time to look again to nuclear energy? He says it does.
Pills for Your Porc and the Cinnamon Play April 26, 2005January 18, 2017 But first, on a separate topic, watch this video with John McCain and Chuck Hagel on the ‘nuclear option.’ And second, before we get to cinnamon (you do not want to miss cinnamon), a bit more on Friday’s topic, which might loosely be called ‘social justice.’ Some of you weren’t buying it. For example, Michael, an assistant professor: Michael A.: ‘I went to the census web page to check income data. I assumed a 240 day working year, so that gives at $17,280 yearly wage. According to the table of active workers about 12% make that much or less. So I don’t know where this 25% of the work force making less than $9.00 per hour comes from. If you want I can try to recreate the calculation, but I have a feeling that facts don’t matter. Moreover we have had a tremendous influx of unskilled low paid foreign workers enter the US over the last 20 years and the influx continues. Here in northern Virginia it seems almost everybody you meet in a retail store is a newly arrived foreigner. So it’s not surprising that we might have a lot of low paid workers in the US today. Are we supposed to do income transfer from Americans to people who come here voluntarily and presumably would leave if they felt oppressed? Does the US owe the world a living? A middle class living?’ ☞ Facts matter greatly. (Indeed, few things are more offensive than to suggest to someone that you think facts don’t matter to him, as it means you think he is either dishonest or stupid.) You didn’t include the URL of the page you were looking at, but I can think of one reason only 12%, and not 25%, make $17,280 or less. Let me know if you think it is too ‘far out.’ Is it possible – and I’m just letting my imagination run wild here – but is it possible that some people earning less than $9 an hour work more than 240 days a year? Or more than one job, to make ends meet? If so, that could explain the discrepancy you have unearthed. (At the current minimum wage – which compassionate conservatives oppose raising – you would actually have to work more than 365 days a year, nine hours a day, with no holidays or sick days, to reach $17,280. And that doesn’t count the time spent getting to and from work, which can be considerable, as the folks you describe often can’t afford to live near the retail stores you patronize.) So we just disagree. To you, Michael, these folks – and their children, who had no choice in where they were born – should get no more of a leg up than they do now. Everything else can be indexed for inflation, but not the minimum wage. So as prices rise, minimum wage workers will, as a matter of compassionate conservative policy, get squeezed tighter and tighter. I would strike the balance differently. To me, my friend who made $156 million last year (I have a friend who made $156 million last year) did not need the tax breaks of the last five years, whereas the folks Beth Shulman is thinking of do need a better shake. They need it partly on moral grounds, but also because an economy and society are healthier when people who work hard and play by the rules are able to get by; able, also, to raise their children – our future – decently. In hope of such a society, which ultimately profits the rich as well as the poor, we have things like a progressive income tax, the estate tax, the earned-income tax credit, Social Security, college aid programs, AmeriCorps, and the minimum wage . . . all of which the Republican leadership, in one way or another, works to eliminate or roll back. Finally, you raise the immigration issue. Which is agonizing – like being on a life raft and having to push people away with your oars. No, I don’t think ‘we owe the whole world a middle-class living.’ But I do think we could do better in that regard. And I think that, in any event, we make a mistake when, within our borders, we shift the balance of good fortune ever further in favor of those already best off. My favorite philosopher, just like the President’s, is Jesus Christ. We just seem to interpret his teachings differently. OK, sorry to do this to you. Tomorrow: Pills for Your Porc and the Cinnamon Play