Two Analyses September 28, 2001February 20, 2017 Michael Dokupil: ‘You might mention that I-Savings Bonds are a particularly good deal right now. Until November 1, new purchases will yield 3% + inflation. With the 5-year treasury yielding 3.8%, it seems like a good deal.’ Indeed. Two sobering, but I think important, analyses: 1. WHY DO THEY HATE US? Thanks to John Farmer, Eric Houghton, and Vijay, who all pointed me to this in the Christian Science Monitor. If you have time, it’s worth reading. 2. WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT? George Hoffer: ‘My son is a Cadet at the United States Air Force Academy. I received this today and I believe that it needs to be read and understood by every American. It is an open from his academic advisor.’ From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) 14 September, 2001 Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an ‘open letter to Americans.’ Dear friends and fellow Americans, Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week’s attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don’t take this the wrong way. I don’t admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just like my father’s generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II. These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world’s greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated ‘the moral is to the physical as three is to one.’ Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing – better said anxious – to give their lives for their cause. How committed are we America? And for how long? In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol’ U.S. of A. These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world’s only ‘superpower’ (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent ‘counter-terrorist’ organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional ‘body snatch,’ (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with – and were promoted because they excelled in – Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear ‘centers of gravity’ to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft – this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders. Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Osama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but! Also less audacious ‘sand in the gears’ tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us in our ‘comfort zone’ forcing the average American to ‘pay more and play less’ and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry – you and I – is the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is a ‘remarkable trinity of war’ that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday’s attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! Mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail. Everyone I’ve talked to in the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another ‘I just wish I could do something!’ You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain. God Bless America Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy But hey: For the most part, even if it’s as bad as Dr. Kern describes, most of us will be living awfully well. And somehow, we should fulfill our obligation – to ourselves and our good fortune – to enjoy ourselves much of the time. Not to recognize our blessings, even if they should be somewhat diminished, and not to enjoy them, seems somehow sinful to me. So kick back with a good supply of iced cold Jakarta Ginger Honest Tea, or maybe Community Green or First Nation or Moroccan Mint (I get a mil for every bottle you buy) and get ready: The season premier of ‘The West Wing’ debuts Wednesday. My guess is that it will be sobering – but inspirational. PS (sorry, can’t resist): Did you see my friend Eddy McIntyre on ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire’ last night? My little Eddy! He was terrific! And he won $64,000! Is this a great country, or what? Goooooooooooo Eddy!
Why They Hate Us September 27, 2001February 20, 2017 David Lohrey: ‘The drop in the market makes it a good time for someone in the right circumstances to look strongly at converting an IRA to a Roth IRA. You’ve covered this before – but the market drop makes it look more appealing [because if the value of your IRA has shrunk, so would the tax for converting it]. Right circumstances being – not having too high an adjusted gross income above $100K and having enough funds outside the IRA to pay the taxes.’ Click here for more. Zach Rosen: ‘Trying to figure out why ‘they’ hate us as a means of understanding why Osama bin Laden attacked the WTC and Pentagon is about as productive as trying to understand why Timothy McVeigh murdered children and innocent civilians, and why McVeigh, and the rest of the Aryan World hates us. As a result of understanding Timothy McVeigh and why he hates us, will we, as a consequence, treat racists better and fix what McVeigh feels are the root causes of society’s problems (i.e., non-white people)? I don’t think so.’ ☞ I agree. But it’s not just why bin Laden hates us, it’s why a billion others hate us. And how to proceed in a way that doesn’t make that two billion or convert the passive haters into active, possibly even suicidal, haters. Hence, the White House wisely retiring the word “crusade” almost as soon as it had been uttered. And changing “Operation Infinite Justice” to something else. Things like this – let alone weightier things like, say, the use of tactical nuclear weapons – matter to people. It pays to be sensitive to them. Russell Turpin: ‘A better question might be: Why are they the way they are? After all, they don’t just hate us. They see the world in a cataclysmic clash, they’re fighting for The Good, this fight is worth killing innocents and sacrificing themselves, and they have the support of their group in doing so. Eric Hoffer’s True Believer is the best answer I have read to this question. I am now rereading this marvel, and find that it speaks as fully to the movements today as it did to those fifty years ago. I highly recommend it to everyone trying to understand this.’ Mitchell Ratner: ‘It is essential to understand the larger context in which the recent violence occurred. One of the best web resources I’ve found are a series of articles on Muslim Rage, Afghanistan, and the Taliban put together here by the Atlantic Monthly. I especially recommend for you and your readers the 1990 (!) article by Historian Bernard Lewis on ‘The Roots of Muslim Rage.’ I hope that one of the outcomes of these horrible attacks will be the realization that the world has become too small, too interdependent, for us, individually and as a nation, not to genuinely care about and work to alleviate suffering and despair wherever it exists on this planet. Showing the dispossessed of the world the U.S. really does care about starving children and wretched living conditions – not spin but genuine acts of mercy and compassion – what a difficult but honorable task for the years ahead. And how much stronger and at peace we would be as individuals and as a country.’ ☞ So there are basically two contrasting views. Alan echoes Mitchell in the first: ‘What do you think of this. We load up all the B1s, B2s, B52, and cargo planes, fly them over Afghanistan and drop…FOOD! We mount an air campaign that lasts as long as the one over Yugoslavia, but we drop food in designated areas. The Afghan government has seized the UN food and supposedly many are starving. After a few weeks of this, we walk into Afghanistan, and the people turn over bin Laden.’ Chris Williams expresses the second: ‘The liberal side of the populace is edging towards pacifism. Well, not edging. Sprinting. Here’s what I hear in various politics venues online. Item #1: ‘We mustn’t enrage the entire Islamic world.’ Item #2: ‘We should go in and get them, but no huge, widespread destruction because the Afghan people are victims and innocent.’ ‘Revenge is evil and just makes you one of them.’ ‘Andy, here’s the deal. The devil is, as usual, in the details. Liberals are averse to things military and hence they have inadequate knowledge of military specifics. When asked exactly what Item #1 – ‘go in and get them’ – means, they don’t want to address it. They are more comfortable with touchy feely aspects of the event. Candles held stuff. Moral support to victims’ families. And as a conservative, it’s wise to note that this is not a foolish perspective; it’s just their nature. ‘But the problem arrives when methods for ‘going in and getting them’ are suggested, and suddenly they want to impose constraints. Item #1 becomes operative and any measure with potential for success is deemed ‘too provocative.’ That country is strewn with anti-personnel mines from their war with the Soviets. A US military commander ordering his troops into the areas with deep mountain caves to clean out the terrorist training camps is condemning a significant percentage of his people, young Americans all, to death – or a lifetime with one leg or no legs. It is the commander who has to write letters to the wives and parents of the men he orders into that situation to explain how and why they were injured or killed. And the commander has to do this because one of those measures with potential for success – perhaps a very low magnitude yield, airburst configured (no fallout) tactical nuclear device targeted in a remote valley with enemy casualty probabilities of only a few hundred – is met with expressions of horror and outrage at ‘idiotic military lust for death.’ It’s another of those N words, it seems. ‘An act of war was committed against American citizens on American soil. Pacifism is suggested by the left. If another act of war is committed, what more could the left offer? Perhaps surrender?’ ☞ So far the White House has proceeded deliberately and cool-headedly. The goal seems to be, first, not to make it ‘us against the Moslems,’ but ‘virtually the whole world against the terrorists.’ This is an outstanding way to frame the conflict. And, second, to do tough, targeted things that almost any reasonable person would consider at least arguably justified. So far, so good. But a massive, sustained airlift of food (and literature) to the people of Afghanistan would not be a bad idea, either. * Finally, Dean Cardno points us to this wonderful piece in last Sunday’s Times of London. At some length, it marvels at America’s critics – and takes them on. If you missed Tuesday’s NPR snippet, because you lacked the time or the audio player, click here for a transcript
How You Pay Your Bills – Part II September 26, 2001February 20, 2017 Greg Curry: ‘I used to use CheckFree. It was easy to use and integrated well with Quicken. But I still had to go into Quicken and write out the virtual check. About a year ago, I switched to PayTrust. I pay $9.95 per month, and they receive and pay all of my bills. I now have most of my regular payees set up so that the bills are automatically paid if the amount due is under a pre-set amount. For those few that aren’t paid this way, I get an e-mail when the bill arrives, and I go and pay it (takes about 1 minute). Every week I download a file and import it into quicken (takes about 2 minutes). I’ve been very pleased with PayTrust, and plan on staying there for the foreseeable future.’ Chuck Smith: ‘I stayed with MYM dos version 12 until this year when I switched to Quicken Deluxe 2001. I had two main reasons for switching. One being lack of support for DOS by Microsoft in their latest releases and the other being the question of how long CheckFree will support input from MYM. I am happy with my decision, as Quicken has excellent Internet interfaces with my bank and securities institutions. I make my payments electronically to merchants (CheckFree is still a transparent third party) and update my statements on a daily basis, all without per-transaction or monthly fees. So why would I pay a fee to receive a bill and make a payment? These services are free (my bank likes me), even if I should want to receive the bills electronically. I took the PayTrust tour and, for me, it fails the cost/benefit test.’David Maymudes: ‘I feel that online bill payment should be free or better. I figure that printing and mailing the bill, and processing the check they get back from me, probably costs them at least $1.00 per bill. So I won’t sign up for online bill payment unless companies are willing to pay me at least 25 cents or so per bill. (I do sign up when individual companies offer to let me pay bills with a credit card; it saves them the same costs in paper processing, and I at least get the frequent flyer miles.) ☞ A man after my own heart. Peter Reilly: ‘I was an MYM user who finally switched to Quicken. I used CheckFree at both. I was pretty happy with CheckFree, even when they raised the price on us a couple of years ago from $4.95 to $9.95 per month; though they gave us more transactions. However, I have discovered that Fidelity gives free CheckFree services to its USA clients. It is web based, not send and receive out of Quicken or MYM, but it works just as well, actually one day faster, 4 days instead of 5, and saves about $120 per year. By cutting and pasting from Quicken into the Fidelity web site, I minimize the chance for errors between the two.’ Joel Williams: ‘Why not use Waterhouse Bank? Bill paying is free, and they also give you interest on the money in your account. Besides that, since they have no ATMs of their own (but you can use just about any one in existence) they pay you $1.00 for the first 3 times per month you use an ATM. So when I take money out at Fresh Fields, where the ATM is free, I actually make $1.00 on the transaction. How’s that for a good deal?’ John Lemon: ‘I use an Internet bank called everbank.com. As long as I maintain a $1,500 balance, they pay relatively good interest (presently about 3.25%) and, more importantly, pay any bill for free, as long as you provide them with the address and phone number of the payee. I’ve been using them for about 18 months with no serious problems.’ Eric E. Haas: ‘Speaking of online banks, I believe the best of the bunch to be pcbanker.com. Their e-checking accounts currently pay 4.1% APY interest – FDIC insured! Also, they reimburse up to four $1.50 ATM transaction fees per month and they have FREE on-line bill-paying. These terms are not only superior to most banks, but nearly all money market funds as well!’ Ed Shoben: ‘I pay all my bills through First Internet Bank of Indiana – ‘First IB’ as they call it. I’ve been very pleased with them and particularly with the interest rate they pay on checking (still over 3%) and with their customer service people. The lack of any fees is wonderful.’ David Penfield: ‘I used to use CheckFree, but a few years ago authorized all my regular bills (mortgage, electric, credit cards, and phone) to be paid by automatic withdrawal from my checking account. This works much better than CheckFree ever did and I have never had a problem, whereas I did have some problems with CheckFree payments getting posted late. With automatic withdrawal, the companies take the money out on the day the bill is due, so I get the full benefit of the float and never have to worry about late fees.’ ☞ Bob Fyfe goes that one better. Instead of having the payment hit his bank account on the due date, he has it hit his credit card – which then gives him another month or more of float. He writes: ‘I auto-charge all of the bills that accept credit cards in order to get the miles, the convenience, and the ‘float.’ The few bills that haven’t been charged to my airline-sponsored Visa (such as the Visa bill itself) I pay using my bank’s on-line bill-paying website.’ If you follow Bob’s lead, just be certain you’re someone who always pays his Visa balance in full within the grace period. David D’Antonio: ‘You might want to (again) point out what a GREAT deal most credit unions are. Having worked for Digital Equipment Corp (now Compaq, soon to be Hewlett-Compaqard), I have access to the Digital Credit Union which gives me bill-paying services (and a lot more) for free. Very convenient. A good way to be frugal, yet get great service!’ Sreenivas I. Rao: ‘I was as surprised as the other reader of your column at your suggestion of PayTrust. I currently use Patelco, the big credit union, and they pay my bills free. For every bill I pay, using this service I save 34 cents. That is actually equivalent to earning 50 cents, in my tax bracket.’ CAVEAT VENDOR David Frankel: ‘A note for Adam about going into the vending machine businesses. Not too long ago, the Federal Trade Commission was pretty active in bringing fraud cases against promoters who made highly unrealistic earnings claims to potential investors in such businesses. I’d advise extreme caution. At a minimum, Adam should conduct a search of the FTC‘s web site. While the FTC does not reveal the names of people or firms under investigation, he can read about past cases to see if the facts are similar to what he’s hearing now.’
The Economist, the Herald, and NPR September 25, 2001February 20, 2017 I’ve been leaning over backwards to try to understand ‘why they hate us’ – and I think we should do that, if only to understand what we’re up against (and in some cases, going forward, to make better decisions than we’ve made in the past). But that doesn’t mean I think their hatred is justified, even if in some instances it is understandable. Lest you worry that ‘we deserved’ this, Michael Rutkaus and David Smith linked me to two good columns that ably dispatch that view as rubbish: The first is from The Economist. The second, from the Miami Herald. Finally, a lot of people know by now that Mark Bingham – the six-foot-five, 230-pound 31-year-old amateur rugby player who almost surely helped down the ‘fourth plane’ in Pennsylvania – was gay. At his memorial service, Senator John McCain said that Bingham may literally have saved his life, as the plane was very possibly headed for the Capitol. Can you imagine what would have happened if, on top of the World Trade Center tragedy, and the Pentagon, our nation’s Capitol had been destroyed? Might the Bush administration been able to show the same admirable cool-headedness it so far has? Or might a nuclear missile or two have been let fly instead? Obviously we don’t know. It’s probably a stretch to suggest we would have done that, and a further stretch to imagine such a nuclear strike could have touched off some kind of Armageddon (though it might have made some future nuclear war more likely, for the precedent it set). But it’s not impossible. So maybe this nice gay guy – a friend of a friend in San Francisco – saved the world. It’s certainly likely he played a key role in saving our nation’s Capitol. So if you have 3 minutes, listen to this NPR commentary by Scott Simon that contrasts Jerry Falwell and Mark Bingham. (To be fair, Falwell and Robertson have disassociated themselves from their own remarks. When the Reverend Falwell said, ‘the ACLU’s got to take a lot of blame for this,’ he didn’t mean it. As he told Geraldo Rivera on CNBC, he hadn’t slept much the night before, and so he ‘misspoke.’ Slip o’ the tongue. And when the billionaire Reverend Robertson responded, ‘Well, yes,’ it was because he wasn’t sure what ‘the ACLU’s got to take a lot of blame for this’ – a complex, convoluted sentence if ever there was one – meant. When the Reverend Falwell, after listing the pagans and the gays and lesbians and the feminists, et al, said, on national TV, ‘I point the finger in their face and say ‘you helped this happen,” he just wasn’t expressing himself clearly, he told Geraldo, because that’s certainly not something he would have said if he had had more sleep. And when the Reverend Robertson shot back, ‘I totally concur,’ what he meant to say was, ‘I totally disagree.’ Got it?) Anyway, don’t miss the NPR commentary. Tomorrow: SOMETHING financial – anything! Please!
A Different Kind of War September 23, 2001February 20, 2017 Nothing blew up yesterday. This is interesting, because a high-ranking law enforcement official told a friend of mine to ‘stay away from New York monuments’ Saturday. I don’t know whether this means our fears are overdone or our intelligence was good enough to pick it up and foil it – or, most likely, that it was just one of countless phony bomb scares. New York is returning to normal, as is air travel, and you should come see a show. You think it takes courage? Statistically, even now, it takes a heck of a lot more courage to get behind the wheel of a car and drive home from dinner. Come and meet … those dancing feet! On the a-ve-noo I’m taking ya too: Forty-Second Street. My feet start to tap at the mere thought – and yours should, too. Still, this new environment is all-consuming, and it’s hard, just now, to get back to writing about automated bill-paying services. Like you, I have read many compelling articles and e-mails over the last several days dealing with “why they hate us so much” and what, in any event, we should do. And also like you (I assume), I don’t feel I can tell for sure what’s true and what isn’t and what makes the most sense. Still, I have been heartened by the careful, measured response of the administration. I get the impression that they really do understand the risks and the need to think things through very carefully before proceeding. This is good news. They are doing a very good job. It is also good news that the initial verbal and physical attacks on Arab Americans have, apparently, fallen off dramatically, as people at all levels get the word that this is distinctly uncool. And it is good news to see Congress working together. Perhaps you saw Hastert, Gephardt, Daschle and Lott together on Meet the Press today, talking about what it was like to be stuck in a secret safe-room together for a day as we braced to see if there would be further attack. So . . . so far, you might say (odd as it sounds under the tragic circumstances), so good. Now what should we do? “Bomb them with butter, bribe them with hope,” read the subject line of one of the (unattributed) Internet messages I got: A military response, particularly an attack on Afghanistan, is exactly what the terrorists want. It will strengthen and swell their small but fanatical ranks. Instead, bomb Afghanistan with butter, with rice, bread, clothing and medicine. It will cost less than conventional arms, poses no threat of U.S. casualties and just might get the populace thinking that maybe the Taliban don’t have the answers. After three years of drought and with starvation looming, let’s offer the Afghani people the vision of a new future. One that includes full stomachs. Bomb them with information. Video players and cassettes of world leaders, particularly Islamic leaders, condemning terrorism. Carpet the country with magazines and newspapers showing the horror of terrorism committed by their “guest.” Blitz them with laptop computers and DVD players filled with a perspective that is denied them by their government. Saturation bombing with hope will mean that some of it gets through. Send so much that the Taliban can’t collect and hide it all. The Taliban are telling their people to prepare for Jihad. Instead, let’s give the Afghani people their first good meal in years. Seeing your family fully fed and the prospect of stability in terms of food and a future is a powerful deterrent to martyrdom. All we ask in return is that they, as a people, agree to enter the civilized world. That includes handing over terrorists in their midst. In responding to terrorism we need to do something different. Something unexpected . . . something that addresses the root of the problem. We need to take away the well of despair, ignorance and brutality from which the Osama bin Laden’s of the world water their gardens of terror. If we continue attacking in the old ways we will get the same old results. Look at what has been happening the middle east for thousands of years to see what we can expect if we attack with bombs and military force. Do we want to live a life of fear as people in the Middle East do? WE WANT PEACE! I think the VCR and DVD idea may presuppose the presence of more televisions – and electricity – than are actually there (much as I would like to airdrop TiVos as well), so this idea may need refinement around the edges. But the approach is compelling, and could be combined with the very forceful attempts that will be made to destroy the terrorist cells. It’s not “either/or.” (One friend of mine pitches it a little more flippantly: “Airdrop millions of CD players, CD’s, radios, TV’s, candy, food and western goods. In six weeks, the Afghan people will revere Brittany Spears and overthrow the Taliban in order to keep up their addiction to Snickers bars and pop music. This would be cheaper, cost fewer lives, and, in the short run, anyway, rid the US of all this crap.”) Paul Lowry: “The problem isn’t terrorism. The problem is hate. It shouldn’t be a war on terrorism – it should be a war on organized hate. Americans must understand why nations and cultures hate us and how they will interpret our words and actions. You may not change those already indoctrinated by bin Laden or other hate leaders, but the wrong action by us now could raise his followers from the thousands to the millions if we don’t try to see the world through other peoples’ eyes.” But why do they hate us so much? How much of the motivation behind the terror is psychopathic, and how much stems from a logical (to them, if not to us) fury over decades of perceived injustice? On the psychopath side of the ledger, I read a chilling article in one of the Jane’s publications about a Hollywood-couldn’t-make-it-any-more-chilling character named Mughniyeh. I don’t mean to take your whole morning, but it’s worth reading. You thought Osama bin Laden was scary? On the perceived injustice side, you may have seen this piece riding the e-waves. I don’t have the competence to judge how much of it is fair. I certainly don’t think it does a very good job of seeing Israel’s very valid point of view, or of crediting her with having offered tremendous concessions last year, rejected out of hand by Arafat. And I don’t think it correctly portrays our motivation in the genocidal Balkans, or much of anywhere else. But that’s all really a separate question. Do they justly hate us? I desperately hope not. But why do they hate us? Read on: Dear friends, In order to make sense of the violence that occurred in NYC recently we must accept our anger and sadness but not let it cloud our vision. We must condemn all killings of innocent civilians while not losing sight of why this tragic event happened and how it can be prevented in the future. In reference to the information I am about to present, I would recommend that everyone do their own research on these important topics which are all written about extensively on the Internet and elsewhere. One of the essential questions to look at, in trying to make sense of the tragic events, is who had the means to do such a thing and how they obtained the necessary training and power. Many in the government and media have pointed at Osama Bin Ladin, member of the Taliban. Bin Ladin, and the Islamic fundamentalists who now compose the Taliban, were trained and funded by the CIA to carry out terrorist acts against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In 1997, the power and weaponry the Taliban had amassed through U.S. support was used to take dictatorial control over Afghanistan. They created an environment highly abusive to women and those not fitting in with the far right-wing Taliban viewpoints. The U.S. government made no attempts to rectify this situation which had arisen as a direct result of our support for extremists. This is not an out of the ordinary case, but rather, a predictable pattern. Manuel Noriega of Panama was on the CIA payroll, and Saddam Hussein was funded and supported by the US government before we bombed Iraq. Another essential question to look at is why someone would want to attack the U.S. government. This question can be answered, not by choosing one specific thing, but rather, by presenting a list of war crimes committed by the U.S. or by foreign regimes supported by U.S. funding and training in the recent past (all examples are after 1980): * After U.S.-led bombings of civilian targets in Iraq, including water treatment plants, the UN Human Rights Commission now reports that 5,000 Iraqi children die per month as a direct result of the bombings and the subsequent U.S.-led sanctions that prevent the rebuilding of the civilian infrastructure in Iraq. Approximately half-a-million children have died as a result of the sanctions. Over 200,000 were killed in the initial bombing operations and the U.S. continues to bomb Iraq on a regular basis. * Over the past year the U.S. has given $1.5 billion ($1 billion from Clinton, $550 million from Bush) in military aid to Colombia, a country with the worst human rights record in the hemisphere. The official U.S. government rational for Plan Colombia is the “drug war.” The Colombian military and their paramilitary allies are, and work for some of the major drug traffickers in Colombia, a fact that leaves the stated reason for the funding dubious. The Colombian military and paramilitaries are reported by Amnesty International and other human rights organizations to commit around 70-80% of the killings in Colombia, totaling 14,000 since 1986. Clinton removed language from the funding agreement that would have prevented the funds from going to units known to have committed human rights abuses. Since the start of Plan Colombia violence has increased dramatically in Colombia, toxic fumigation of farmland has begun, and tens of thousands of peasants have been driven from their homes, displaced by violence and toxic spraying. One probable reason for U.S. involvement is counter-insurgency against the leftist FARC, which demands an end to the economic exploitation and repression of the majority of Colombians. * The U.S.-trained and funded military regime in Indonesia murdered thousands and drove several hundred thousand people from their homes in 1999 after East Timor voted overwhelmingly for independence from Indonesia. Elite units of the U.S.-trained Kopassus special forces, legendary for their brutality, and their senior military adviser, General Makarim, a U.S.-trained intelligence specialist with experience in East Timor and “a reputation for callous violence,” appear to have directed the militias in the massacre. Kopassus had been training regularly with U.S. and Australian forces until the time of the massacres. * The U.S. led NATO bombings of Yugoslavia killed over 500 civilians and in clear violation of international law targeted hundreds of civilian installations, including over 190 school buildings. The bombing of numerous petrochemical installations released toxins into the air that caused significant adverse effects on the health of the population of Yugoslavia and the neighboring countries. NATO currently maintains a completely undemocratic military protectorate over the population of Kosovo. The U.S. led NATO alliance also used it’s influence to increase the power of the KLA, a militant rebel group heavily involved in organized crime, at the expense of the ethnic-Albanian civil government in Kosovo, which was functioning previous to the NATO bombing. * After U.S. Embassy bombings in 1998, the U.S. bombed a medicine factory in the Sudan destroying half the pharmaceutical production in that country. One year later they admitted that the owner of the plant had no links to terrorism and that the bombing was a “mistake.” * The U.S. has used the radioactive substance depleted uranium as a coating for its munitions which it employed extensively in Iraq, Yugoslavia, and even in training exercises on the Island of Vieques in Puerto Rico. There is strong evidence linking depleted uranium to Gulf War Syndrome, a debilitating disease affecting thousands of veterans of the Gulf War. The U.S. has also used other weapons illegal under international law, including cluster bombs, which killed imprecisely and indiscriminately, in Yugoslavia. * $3 billion in aid per year to Israel, the majority military aid, to a nation recognized by almost every member nation of the UN to be in illegal occupation of the State of Palestine. Israel is recognized by the UN Human Rights Commission to be in “widespread, systematic and gross violation of human rights” of the Palestinians. The Palestinians demand independence and the right to return to the homes that 800,000 of them were expelled from in 1948. In reaction to their protest Israel bulldozes their homes, assassinates their leaders without trial, and murders innocent civilians who are exercising their freedom of speech and assembly. Palestinian deaths and injuries have far outnumbered Israeli deaths in the conflicts both recently and since 1948. Clinton pressured Israel to take a very hard line in it’s negotiations with the Palestinians. * U.S. military assistance to Turkey which had been going on since the beginning of the Cold War escalated sharply in 1984 with the beginning of Turkey’s counter-insurgency against the repressed ethnic minority, the Kurds. The military aid reached it’s climax in 1997 when 80% of Turkey’s total weapons had been donated to it by the U.S. By 1999, Turkey had largely suppressed Kurdish resistance by terror and ethnic cleansing, leaving some 2-3 million refugees, 3,500 villages destroyed, and tens of thousands killed. * U.S. funded military regimes and death squads in Central America, including the Contras in Nicaragua, murdered over 30,000 Central Americans during the 1980s. * The U.S. invaded Panama in December 1989 killing over 2000, the majority civilians. The supposed reason for the invasion was to oust the international criminal, Manuel Noriega, a man whom the CIA funded as he rigged elections and brutally ruled Panama throughout the early 1980s at which time he was praised by the US for his “democratic” credentials. * Supported by U.S. funds and training, Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon in 1982 which claimed the lives of 17,500 Lebanese civilians. These are not all, but only some of the atrocities that the U.S. has supported since 1980, not least of which is its role as the worlds biggest arms dealer. In light of these facts, we demand a peaceful response to this tragedy. We demand that no innocent civilians are harmed in our search for vengeance against the perpetrators. We demand, not an increase in the military and surveillance budget, but rather a decrease, as only LESS aggression on the part of the U.S., not more, will solve the danger that we are in, brought upon us by the intense hatred that many throughout the world feel for the U.S. We need to accept that a great deal of misery and repression is dealt out in our name, and that we have a responsibility, both to our own safety, and to that of the rest of the world, to combat these injustices. We must stop believing that American lives, freedom, and democracy are more valuable than the lives, freedom, and democracy of people abroad. Please forward this widely, especially to those who may feel that a U.S. military operation is appropriate at this point in time. Robert Arnow Co-chair Media Working Group Call me naïve, but I think that is unfair and one-sided. Us? The bad guys? So consistently and extensively? But that’s how enemies tend to see each other – unfairly and one-sidedly. It was only during the Viet Nam War that much national attention and extensive debate was focused on our actions – because so many families had a direct, life-and-death stake in it. And you will recall that opinion was divided on the wisdom and humanity of our actions. When was the last time you heard a vigorous debate on our role in Turkey or Indonesia or Colombia? This is not to say we are even necessarily wrong in these situations. Often, you have to pick the better of two bad options. (Let the genocide go on without interfering? Interfere?) And so will be hated for either choice. Still, I agree with those who believe that this war on terrorism must be unlike any other, and that to win it, we must really try to understand what we’re up against. So far, as I’ve said, I think the administration is doing it well. Ken Shirriff: “A minor correction. The Friedman Doctrine, that no nations both with McDonald’s have gone to war against each other, doesn’t hold since NATO bombed Serbia, and Belgrade has a McDonald’s.”
Overslept! September 21, 2001March 25, 2012 Sorry. Will try to post something tonight or tomorrow. But looking at the market this morning, I’d suggest that the good time to sell has now past, if you were thinking of selling, and that the good time to hang on (and go to the movies and just wait it out) has arrived. Even, for those who really have a lot of cash on the sidelines, the time to start buying. But just start, because I would be surprised if we have bottomed, and very surprised if the unprecedented bull market we have experienced were not over for a while. Those who, wisely, invest $100 a week in index funds, or whatever similar lifelong discipline: just keep right on doing it.
A Marine’s Mom Speaks September 20, 2001February 20, 2017 I’m buying some more CSPLF today at $5.25 if I can get it – it fell sharply on a largely unfavorable court ruling yesterday, but owns a lot of natural gas in Canada. If you can REALLY afford to lose this money, and aren’t already over-exposed in speculative energy stocks, it might be worth a look. [Usual caveats apply: I am terrible at this; you must NEVER borrow to invest (which means never investing if you run credit card balances or might need the money if the roof starts to leak); you would do better just investing in index mutual funds; patience has to be your middle name.] And now back to more important matters. * Gregory Lawton: ‘What could be better than having Osama bin Laden tried by an Islamic court and executed for his horrific crimes according to the Islamic law that he professes to revere?’ ☞ Give me a minute . . . nope – can’t think of anything. Well, unless he could be executed twice. * Iris Cantor lost her husband and virtually all the employees of his firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, that occupied five high floors (I think it was five) in the World Trade Center. Here is the quote she chose for the memorial ad she placed in the Wall Street Journal: ‘When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall – think of it, ALWAYS.’ – Mahatma Gandhi * A Marine’s Mom Speaks: Click here.
We’ve Won! September 19, 2001February 20, 2017 First, high finance: Joe F: ‘I still have not been able to locate three of my friends. I just returned from volunteering in the City this past weekend. I do not have much $$$. I donated to one of my friend’s families and have about $750 left to play with. I was thinking of taking the rest and investing. I know it is not much at all, but I would like to help jump-start the economy. Is this wise?’ ☞ Only if you run no credit card balances, have no 10% car loans, etc., and truly can afford to put this away for the long term. Coming to NY to help is patriotic and generous. Trying to prop up the world’s financial markets with $750 is tremendously well-intentioned – you deserve a big hug – but ——ic. (Fill in whatever blanks you like. I can think of words, of varying lengths beginning with Q, U, I and M.) Like water, the market will find its level. It seemed to do just fine yesterday. No panic; no propping required. If it goes back down to 6500, where five years ago it was seen by some key players as dangerously OVERvalued, that will hardly be the end of the world – and you should let your friends know it. I’m not predicting that it will go so low. I sure hope not. But whether it does or doesn’t, if this $750 is truly long-term money, you would likely do just fine investing it today. And now the letters: I was moved by all three of these. Please don’t miss the last one, as it comes from our mutual friend, the estimable Less Antman. It is he who makes the case that . . . we’ve won. (Separately, Less has heard the report that the SEC is investigating whether bin Laden shorted stocks before the attack. Remembering that Al Capone was sent up for tax evasion rather than murder, Less wonders . . . oh, never mind.) 1. From Yasmine: ‘As an American, a New Yorker and an Afghan, I have struggled with many feelings. I have wondered what I can do to educate people about the state of affairs in Afghanistan now and over the past 20 years. The Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December of 1979, it is September 2001 and my father’s country has been destroyed day by day for over two decades. I am disgusted by the Taliban and Osama bin Laden. For my family, these have been household names for years prior to the tragedies we witnessed on Tuesday. My father has spent years trying to get people in our government to listen – he has sat around our dinner table talking to his children for hours on end about what was happening to his homeland – so many of our friends have listened as my Dad spoke passionately about the hateful crimes the Taliban was committing against innocent Afghans all in the name of Islam, an Islam that my family does not know, an Islam that cannot be found in the pages of the Koran. ‘I beg you, as friends, to take the anger we all feel and try to learn and spread knowledge. We all want retaliation. We want someone to pay for the innocent people whose lives were taken away. But, please, please, please understand that Afghans like me and my family have never supported the Taliban. In fact, we have watched helplessly as these cowards took the little bit of dignity the Afghans had left after the Soviet war. ‘I went to work the other night and watched groups of friends, bright and educated people, stop their conversations as I approached. I have never experienced anything like this. My Dad recently grew a beard, but after seeing images of bearded fundamentalists on TV, we have asked him to shave it off to quell any possibility of attacks out of ignorance. For the first time in my life, I am afraid to tell people my ethnic background. My name is a liability. My coloring makes me feel scared when people look at me on the subway. I find myself thankful that my sisters and Mom have lighter coloring. ‘We all feel helpless right now. If nothing else, please try to educate your friends. Please do not perpetuate hate. Hatred brought down the World Trade Center. Hate is hate – there is no gray area. ‘It is very possible that we will bomb Afghanistan in the coming days. Maybe emails like this will not stop that from happening, but let’s not pretend that we do not know that those actions will kill innocent and helpless people who have lived under the terror of the Taliban for years. We turned our backs for so long. We have not written about them, or if we have, we have not read those articles, we skipped past them. People did not know where Afghanistan was until three days ago. How is that possible? Bin Laden was behind the first WTC bombing, the bombing of the Cole and the embassies in Africa — ask yourself, how did we not pay attention? Pay attention now. Know what is going on in our world. All we have is hope, unity and the ability to open our eyes. Open them.’ 2. From Will Proctor: ‘I went outside tonight at 7 pm for the candlelight vigil across America. Jason and I were the only two on our block at first. The lawn man and his wife were here, cutting the grass and triming the hedges. They just smiled but didn’t say anything. They don’t speak English. I offered them a candle and even though they don’t have Internet access and hadn’t heard the news about the vigil, they understood what we were doing. They didn’t hesitate to join us. ‘Then our neighbors from next door came out to see what was going on. And Jason gave them a candle. A pregnant mother and her daughter walked down the street. The mother wouldn’t make eye contact with me, but then I held out a candle in her direction and she came over to take it. They stopped and stood with us on our lawn. ‘Three Hispanic men had been standing across the street, laughing nervously at the spectacle at first. Then one timidly made his way over towards us and stood on the sidewalk. I offered him a candle and he took it. And one by one, his friends followed suit. ‘An Armenian grandmother from across the street saw us out her window. She came down to her front porch with her candle and smiled at us. ‘Then out of a rowdy group of teenagers up the street, a boy with chains around his neck, a blue baseball jersey and cap moved swiftly towards us with a swagger and attitude as strong as any kid of the streets. I stood my ground. He stepped right up to me. ‘May I have one?’ he asked. So I gave him a candle and followed him back to his friends. Pretty soon they all joined in as well. ‘Looking up and down the street, people had come out, quietly, and joined us on the sidewalk. It was truly an amazing sight. The Armenian grandmother, the Hispanic family, the teenagers, the gay couple, and many others all standing there together, feeling the same thing, understanding how similar we are. And acknowledging not only all the people who died and are grieving, but also, for the very first time on our incredibly diverse street in the middle of Hollywood, acknowledging each other. ‘For the three months Jason and I have lived here, barely a word of acknowledgement has passed betweeen us and our neighbors. But that has all changed. No longer can we pass each other with eyes averted. No longer can we avoid conversation because they don’t speak English and our Spanish isn’t that good. No longer can we avoid conversation because they are too macho to speak to us and we are too educated to speak to a group of laborers. No longer can we avoid conversation because a fifteen-year-old is too cool or too hip to talk to a thirty-year-old and a thirty-year-old doesn’t know what to say to a fifteen-year-old. ‘Tonight we saw ourselves in each other. We realized that we all just want to love and be loved and belong and make a difference. That is what being a human is all about. That’s it. Nothing more and nothing less.’ 3. The estimable Less Antman: ‘In all the hand-wringing over what should be done to respond to the terrorism of September 11, it seems to me that a critical point has been overlooked by many: The terrorists have already lost. ‘The world is shocked, including the entire Muslim world. Iran, Libya, Pakistan are all feeling genuine outrage and compassion for the US. Anyone who saw Yassir Arafat on television knows that he is speechless in his anguish over what has happened. The longer we refrain from a visible attack that kills innocent people, the more we have gained a moral authority that is the last thing Al Queda wanted to have happen. ‘Osama bin Laden doesn’t care if he dies: he WANTS to be a martyr. What will torture him is for the Islamic world to be united with the West because of his actions. What will ruin him is acts of kindness by Muslims toward non-Muslims, and acts of kindness by non-Muslims toward Muslims. He thought he would be a hero: now he is afraid to claim credit. I hope bin Laden lives to be 100, for it will be the greatest punishment possible for him to see how a vision of Hell brought the entire world to its senses and turned him into a pariah among those he thought would consider him a savior. ‘Terrorists need a large number of people who, while not participating, sympathize with their cause. This is crucial. Don’t say that Osama bin Laden and his gang don’t care about public opinion: they desperately need the sympathy and the sense of heroism that they had before September 11 in much of the world. Now they have only the criminals. If they are not raised to the level of martyrs, youngsters will stop dreaming of growing up to be suicide bombers, for they will know this will make everyone they love and respect feel ashamed of them. ‘I’m not saying we should do NOTHING. Our counterattack needs to be on three levels: ‘(1) Government. Patient police and intelligence work with the cooperation and involvement of as many other countries as possible will take the victory we have been handed and solidify it. In truth, merely making it indisputable public knowledge corroborated by Islamic governments that Al Queda committed this crime will force them to hide out like rats in sewers for the rest of their lives, unable to continue their work. A few captures would be a nice bonus, but we’ll probably only get a few suicides out of it when arrest is imminent. Some consolation. But their inability to operate anymore with the tacit support and admiration of the large numbers of people who used to consider them vaguely heroic will cripple them beyond repair: logistically, financially, morally, and emotionally. ‘(2) Practical. Free markets and free trade make the world safer. It is not surprising that virtually all terrorist nations are countries without active stock markets and where American businesses don’t exist. To this day, as Thomas Friedman of the New York Times has pointed out, there has never been a war between two different countries which each had McDonald’s franchises. China needs our market: as horrible a regime as they are, we need to keep investing and trading with it, knowing that the more prosperity the people have, the more they will have to lose from being an enemy. Be an investor, and be a global investor. It is your contribution to world peace as much as it is to your own wealth. ‘(3) Personal. Our adrenaline is flowing, and we need to do something. In addition to working and investing (see number 2), we need to channel our anger into donations to the Red Cross, the September 11 fund for victims, and charities and religious organizations whose purposes appeal to us individually. We also need to stop perpetuating hate and stereotyping of entire nations and races: that is what the terrorists have done. Muslims around the world have been laying flowers in front of US embassies: a few bouquets in front of mosques would be warranted. ‘The Islamic world doesn’t need more parking lots [as in: bomb their cities into parking lots]. It needs time to think, to realize the role that public hatred has in encouraging sick minds, and to reconsider attitudes and actions that might have made it easier for those tiny numbers who are terrorists to feel like heroes. Such reflective thought will stop the moment the first American plane drops a bomb. The American administration deserves a great deal of credit for not giving in to the lowest common denominator to this point, and I hope it continues a while longer. Now excuse me while I add a little money to my mutual fund account and make an online donation at redcross.org.’ For some photos from around the world that eloquently bolster Less’s point, click here.
Letter from an Afghan And Some Really Dumb Stock Picks September 18, 2001February 20, 2017 Sorry about the market, but look: As I’ve been suggesting, it was probably overvalued even before the awful bombing. Yesterday’s 6% drop, in light of these events, is not a big deal. The real news is that, amazingly, everything functioned just fine so far as I know, even as 2.3 billion shares traded hands in an orderly way. So maybe the market drops another 3% today and then 1% Wednesday, and then a little rally, and then some more declines grind us down pretty much through the end of the year and – well, I don’t know where the Dow will go. But I do know that if you had told folks ten years ago, when the Dow was 3,000, that it would triple (not even counting dividends) over the coming decade, they would have been disbelieving. And if you had then added that, ‘yes, and people will be wringing their hands that it’s so low’ – that it had slipped below 9000 – they would have been more disbelieving still. So I’d be a little surprised if we’ve seen the bottom. But it really isn’t the end of the world if stocks that were selling at 30 or 40 times earnings sell at 15 or 20 times earnings for a while. Or if we have a recession – we always used to have them – and earnings themselves decline, so there’s less ‘e’ in the price/earnings ratio by which to multiply. Not that I wish this on us, obviously. I strongly don’t. Recessions are rotten, as are bear markets. But they end. It’s important to keep perspective. I also think that for those lucky few of us who have some cash we can really risk, there are some interesting bets to begin to make. NOT ON MARGIN! Not until the credit card balances are paid off and the 10% car loan is paid off and there’s plenty of emergency money in the bank! I’m buying a little Boeing ($36) and American and United Airlines (both around $18), because (a) Boeing, down 17% yesterday and at half its high for the year, is also a defense contractor (and they all went up yesterday); (b) all three have great brands and loyal customers; (c) the government won’t want them to go broke, not unlike the way it didn’t want Chrysler to go broke; (d) the hijacking problem may be pretty largely, and relatively inexpensively, solvable. (Sealing off the doors to the cockpit is one solution. But an even better one may be here.) This is risky! Airlines can go broke! Rising fuel prices will kill them, too! As will rising interest rates if we reflate all the way to inflation! So I really, really mean that you are probably best off not trying to play the market . . . but rather buying, month after month all your working life, shares in a couple of index mutual funds. Still, these are some fliers I’m taking. Two more: Juniper Networks, at $12, if only because I made such fun of it within the part year – the stock, not the company – at $244. And the Honda Motor Company, at $66.25 on the open yesterday (down from $80 the trading day before), because the Honda Insight gets 50 miles to the gallon, which could become a popular feature. (But what do I know about automobiles? I can barely tell a carburetor from a cauliflower.) Even with these purchases (added to a portfolio already long oil-related stocks, REITs, and even a couple of defense contractors, among other dogs), I have only a fairly small proportion of my tongue-in-cheek vast fortune . . . getting less vast all the time . . . in stocks. But I much prefer buying Boeing at $36 than $70, Juniper at $12 than $244. (Lest I appear to be bragging about this, please note that the TiVo stock I was so pleased with myself over – for about half an hour, when it doubled briefly – is now barely above $3, and heading into what may be a brutal tax-selling season. And I have lots of other patently stupid holdings as well . . . except that, for reasons I can’t really explain, I managed to avoid suggesting many of them to you here. A few. But I’m holding on to them, so even they are not dead yet.) And now, back to Kabul. No – wait: Gregory Lawton: ‘Recently I’ve discovered the value of purchasing “reconditioned as new” products. Overstock.com is one retailer that sells reconditioned products. They look like new and usually contain the same warranty as a new product, but often at 25% (or more) discount off the retail price of a new product.’ And now, back to Kabul. This remarkable e-mail has been making the rounds – you’ve probably already seen it – launched, apparently, by the college roommate of a man named Tamim Ansary, who grew up in Afghanistan. I am obviously no expert in any of this, but to me it seemed well worth reading. Thu, 13 Sep 2001 Dear Friends, Yesterday I heard a lot of talk about “bombing Afghanistan back to the Stone Age.” Ronn Owens, on KGO Talk Radio allowed that this would mean killing innocent people, people who had nothing to do with this atrocity, but “we’re at war, we have to accept collateral damage,” and he asked, “What else can we do? What is your suggestion?” Minutes later I heard a TV pundit discussing whether we “have the belly to do what must be done.” And I thought about these issues especially hard because I am from Afghanistan, and even though I’ve lived here for 35 years I’ve never lost track of what’s been going on over there. So I want to share a few thoughts with anyone who will listen. I speak as one who hates the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden. There is no doubt in my mind that these people were responsible for the atrocity in New York. I fervently wish to see those monsters punished. But the Taliban and Ben Laden are not Afghanistan. They’re not even the government of Afghanistan. The Taliban are a cult of ignorant psychotics who captured Afghanistan in 1997 and have been holding the country in bondage ever since. Bin Laden is a political criminal with a master plan. When you think Taliban, think Nazis. When you think Bin Laden, think Hitler. And when you think “the people of Afghanistan” think “the Jews in the concentration camps.” It’s not only that the Afghan people had nothing to do with this atrocity. They were the first victims of the perpetrators. They would love for someone to eliminate the Taliban and clear out the rats nest of international thugs holed up in their country. I guarantee it. Some say, if that’s the case, why don’t the Afghans rise up and overthrow the Taliban themselves? The answer is, they’re starved, exhausted, damaged, and incapacitated. A few years ago, the United Nations estimated that there are 500,000 disabled orphans in Afghanistan–a country with no economy, no food. Millions of Afghans are widows of the approximately two million men killed during the war with the Soviets. And the Taliban has been executing these women for being women and have buried some of their opponents alive in mass graves. The soil of Afghanistan is littered with land mines and almost all the farms have been destroyed . The Afghan people have tried to overthrow the Taliban. They haven’t been able to. We come now to the question of bombing Afghanistan back to the Stone Age. Trouble with that scheme is, it’s already been done. The Soviets took care of it . Make the Afghans suffer? They’re already suffering. Level their houses? Done. Turn their schools into piles of rubble? Done. Eradicate their hospitals? Done. Destroy their infrastructure? There is no infrastructure. Cut them off from medicine and health care? Too late. Someone already did all that. New bombs would only land in the rubble of earlier bombs. Would they at least get the Taliban? Not likely. In today’s Afghanistan, only the Taliban eat, only they have the means to move around. They’d slip away and hide. (They have already, I hear.) Maybe the bombs would get some of those disabled orphans, they don’t move too fast, they don’t even have wheelchairs. But flying over Kabul and dropping bombs wouldn’t really be a strike against the criminals who did this horrific thing. Actually it would be making common cause with the Taliban–by raping once again the people they’ve been raping all this time. So what else can be done, then? Let me now speak with true fear and trembling. The only way to get Bin Laden is to go in there with ground troops. I think that when people speak of “having the belly to do what needs to be done” many of them are thinking in terms of having the belly to kill as many as needed. They are thinking about overcoming moral qualms about killing innocent people. But it’s the belly to die not kill that’s actually on the table. Americans will die in a land war to get Bin Laden. And not just because some Americans would die fighting their way through Afghanistan to Bin Laden’s hideout. It’s much bigger than that, folks. To get any troops to Afghanistan, we’d have to go through Pakistan. Would they let us? Not likely. The conquest of Pakistan would have to be first. Will other Muslim nations just stand by? You see where I’m going. The invasion approach is a flirtation with global war between Islam and the West. And that is Bin Laden’s program. That’s exactly what he wants and why he did this thing. Read his speeches and statements. It’s all right there. AT the moment, of course, “Islam” as such does not exist. There are Muslims and there are Muslim countries, but no such political entity as Islam. Bin Laden believes that if he can get a war started, he can constitute this entity and he’d be running it. He really believes Islam would beat the west. It might seem ridiculous, but he figures if he can polarize the world into Islam and the West, he’s got a billion soldiers. If the West wreaks a holocaust in Muslim lands, that’s a billion people with nothing left to lose, even better from Bin Laden’s point of view. He’s probably wrong about winning, in the end the west would probably overcome–whatever that would mean in such a war; but the war would last for years and millions would die, not just theirs but ours. Who has the belly for that? Bin Laden yes, but anyone else? I don’t have a solution. But I do believe that suffering and poverty are the soil in which terrorism grows. Bin Laden and his cohorts want to bait us into creating more such soil, so they and their kind can flourish. We can’t let him do that. That’s my humble opinion. — Tamim Ansary
It Was My Fault September 17, 2001January 26, 2017 The ‘1979’ Canadian commentary I quoted Friday is actually from 1973. Thanks to Bill with no last name for this link to the whole story. Having now had a little time to think about it, it seems to me that Mayor Giuliani and the rest of the City’s civil servants, especially the fire department and police, have performed outstandingly well. And that President Bush and his team are on the right very forceful but deliberate path. The trick will be in keeping America’s anger hot and resolve firm, while never losing focus. It is NOT all Arabs or Muslims who did this; it is NOT Israel’s fault this happened. (I have heard the essence of both sentiments expressed on C-SPAN.) Neither, for that matter (and despite the way I’ve titled this column, in deference to Reverend Falwell), do I believe it is my fault. I assume most of you have seen by now the transcript of Pat Robertson’s conversation with the Reverend Falwell on last Thursday’s telecast of the 700 Club. In part: FALWELL: ‘The abortionists have got to bear some burden for this because God will not be mocked. And when we destroy 40 million little innocent babies, we make God mad. I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way – all of them who have tried to secularize America – I point the finger in their face and say ‘you helped this happen.” PAT ROBERTSON: ‘Well, I totally concur . . .’ Falwell and Robertson have convinced themselves that when a hurricane hits Virginia Beach (Robertson’s neck of the woods), there’s no meaning to it, and that when a hurricane fails to hit Orlando as predicted in retribution for Disney’s equal rights policies for gays and lesbians, there’s no meaning to it, and that when AIDS devastates the (straight) population of Africa, or 460 die when a ferry sinks in the Red Sea – or six million innocent Jews or three million innocent Cambodians are exterminated – God merely works in mysterious ways . . . but that when religious fanatics crash planes into the World Trade Center, because they believe it will take them to a special place in heaven, this is not caused by a fanatic religious certitude greater in degree but not entirely dissimilar from their own. Rather, they concur, it is caused, at least in part, because people like me have made God mad. I have to assume both Robertson and Falwell know with every fiber of their faith that the World Trade Center terrorists are not headed for a special place in heaven. The terrorists have accepted the wrong blind faith. And I have to assume that Robertson and Falwell would disdain as laughable (or tragic) the myths of the ancients, who – lacking the knowledge and science to understand almost anything about their environment – believed in many gods and tried hard not to make them mad, sacrificing the occasional virgin to that end. But a lot of ancients really believed this stuff – it’s how they tried to make sense of the world – and a lot of virgins died. Well, but of course, that was before we knew that the Red Sea parted (literally? it literally parted?) and before Jesus walked on water (literally? he literally walked on water?), and before the Bible told us that non-virgin brides should be stoned to death in the public square. Now we no longer deal in comforting myths, but in the truth, as interpreted for millions through God’s wealthy servants on the 700 Club. And listen: I recognize my tone here will offend some, and I regret that. But assuming those I offend are right and I’m wrong, they are going to heaven for eternity and I am going to hell – which would seem to give new definition to the phrase ‘the last laugh.’ So at worst, rather than be mad at me, I hope they will just feel sorry for me. I deeply respect the right of people to believe what they choose to believe, so long as they don’t hurt or condemn other loving, law-abiding citizens. I don’t doubt that the Reverend Falwell wishes everyone well. And there is much on which we actually agree. I believe the teachings of Jesus are magnificent. I believe in love and compassion and fairness and freedom and tolerance and dignity and charity and honesty. And isn’t that, after all, the bulk of it, even if I don’t go the extra step and, as a result, have to burn in hell? * Amazingly, those thoughts are related – at least in my mind – to the War Against Terrorism. Because in the long run, this war can only be won if people of differing faiths, and no faith at all, are able to learn to live with each other – as, for the most part, and underlying this nation’s strength, they have in America. Tomorrow: Letter from an Afghan